First Thoughts: Where's the buzz?

Where's the buzz surrounding the possible 2012 Republicans?... Politico says Hillaryland has its eyes on 2016, not 2012… Obama speaks at rally for O'Malley at 3:15 pm ET… While we all focus on the DE and AK Senate races, don't forget about CO, IL, PA, WV, and WI… GOP outside money groups have an 8-to-1 spending advantage… "Hicky, blue-collar look"?... About last night's Crist-Meek-Rubio debate… Profiling VA-2… And Blumenthal and McMahon square off in another debate.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Where's the buzz? President Obama today hits another rally (for Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley), after recently drawing 26,000 in Wisconsin. But looking ahead to 2012, we've heard some Republicans ask: If the GOP's '12 nominee was out there, wouldn't that person already have a considerable following? After all, conservatives and Republicans right now are displaying unprecedented enthusiasm, energy, and engagement about the coming midterm elections. That's largely why Republicans are poised to make big gains next month. But given this GOP excitement, it's striking that -- outside of Sarah Palin (and she could be more exciting to the media than to the base) -- none of it has rubbed off the potential '12 Republicans.

*** Comparing '06 with now: In 2006, due to his rock-star status campaigning for other Democrats, political observers could already sense that Obama would be a BIG deal if he ran for president. Ditto Hillary Clinton, whose march to Senate re-election was attracting plenty of buzz. Right now, the only Republican outside of Palin who's even approaching the same buzz that Obama and Clinton received in '06 is someone who has said he won't run: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. There are A LOT of 2012 GOPers traveling the country (Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee, Santorum, etc), and none is even close to getting real buzz in the base of the party right now.

*** Speaking of buzz about 2012 (and also 2016): Thanks to Drudge and cable TV's need to feed the beast, we're not sure the Hillary-Biden "Trading Places" story is really going to go away, despite strong denials by the White House and Clinton. Indeed, Politico yesterday noted that Hillaryland's true target isn't VP in 2012 but rather president in 2016. "Not happening," one of her 2008 campaign's topmost figures said about Clinton becoming VP in '12. "Stay tuned for 2016." More: "Many in Clinton's broader circle assume that she is positioning herself with an eye toward that 2016 bid – not that they claim to have first-hand knowledge of it. 'Once you run for president you always want to be president," James Carville … told POLITICO when he was asked about Hillary Clinton's prospects. "My assumption is that once you've run you're going to run again." Of course, the whole story was written on the premise of making an assumption about her ambition. Those closest to Hillary acknowledge folks AROUND Clinton are more interested in seeing her run again than the prospective candidate herself. In fact, she's actually starting to get into a groove in her current job and starting to enjoy more this year than she did last year.

*** How quickly we forget 1994: The Politico article also made this point: "The renewed buzz around Clinton's prospects, though, has been driven by the political weaknesses of Obama and Biden. Fanned by a media eager for conflict and fascinated by all things Clinton, the spark for the notion of Clinton's return to politics comes from her original argument against Obama. Clinton made the case in the Democratic primaries that Obama would be unable to win among working-class white Democratic voters. The Democrats head into the midterms profoundly weak among some of those same white voters - though Obama's biggest problem remains with Republicans, and pollsters argue that their real problem is a lackluster Democratic base." Yet here's our question: If Bill Clinton couldn't avoid what happened in '94, then do we think Hillary as president would be any stronger than Obama is right now, especially with unemployment at 10%? Classic grass-is-always-greener-on-the-other-side analysis.

*** Obama's day: As mentioned above, President Obama delivers remarks at 3:15 pm ET at a rally for Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley at Bowie State University, a historically black college. Then, in the early evening, he flies to Chicago to speak at a fundraiser for Alexi Giannoulias at 7:00 pm ET.

*** Don't you … forget about me: While the political and news world fixates on the Senate contests in Delaware (because of Christine O'Donnell) and Alaska (because of Todd Palin's nasty-gram email to Joe Miller), we want to remind folks that there are MUCH more competitive and consequential Senate races out there. Some examples: Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. In fact, these are, perhaps, the five CLOSEST Senate races in the country, and they rank near the bottom in coverage. Hmmm

*** GOP outside group's 8-to-1 spending advantage: On Tuesday, we wrote about how GOP-leaning outside groups were blowing away Dem outside groups in TV ad spending. Here are some fresh numbers a source sent us: From August until now, GOP groups have spent nearly $41 million in key Senate seats, including $8.8 million by American Crossroads and $14 million by Crossroads GPS. By comparison, Dem groups have spent just $5.5 million in these states. That's an 8-to-1 advantage for the GOP. Wow…

*** The 'hicky' blue-collar look? Remember that recent tough TV ad the National Republican Senatorial Committee is running against Joe Manchin in West Virginia? The ad features three men -- wearing flannel and baseball caps -- having a conversation about how "Obama's messin' things up" and how Manchin "does whatever Obama wants." Well, it turns out those weren't West Virginians. Rather, they were actors shooting the ad from Philadelphia, and they weren't just actors, Politico reports. "'We are going for a "Hicky" Blue Collar look,' read the casting call for the ad, being aired by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. 'These characters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks.'" All of a sudden, Manchin now has three things to hit GOP opponent John Raese with: 1) that Raese's wife is a resident of another state; 2) Raese's position on the minimum wage; and 3) this casting call that doesn't necessarily portray West Virginia in a positive light.

*** About last night: Here's the Miami Herald's take on last night's Crist-Meek-Rubio debate in Florida: "Marco Rubio got the front-runner treatment in a combative U.S. Senate debate Wednesday night, with both his rivals attacking him as a right-wing extremist out of step with Florida voters." Here's the St. Pete Times: "The surprise of the night was Meek, the Democrat trailing in the polls, money and enthusiasm. Meek was strong throughout the hour, landing some of the best lines." Here's ABC: "[I]n the end, neither Gov. Charlie Crist (I) nor Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) was able to knock frontrunner Marco Rubio (R) off his game." And here is the take from NBC's Adam Verdugo, who was there: It was clear that both Crist and Meek had Rubio in their sights. Rubio is the clear frontrunner in the polls and just before the debate, Rubio's campaign announced a record haul of $5 million in the last quarter, the largest from a Senate candidate this quarter.

*** 75 House races to watch: VA-2: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent Glenn Nye, and his GOP opponent is businessman Scott Rigell. In 2008, Obama won 51% in this district -- representing Virginia Beach -- while Bush won 58% in '04. As of June 30, Nye had nearly $1.3 million in the bank, versus Rigell's $227,000. Nye voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Cook rates the contest as Toss Up, while Rothenberg has it Lean Republican.

*** More midterm news: In Colorado, Campaign Money Watch, a nonpartisan campaign finance reform watchdog group, is up with a big ad buy against Ken Buck… In Connecticut, Dick Blumenthal and Linda McMahon square off in another debate today.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 26 days

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629 comments below

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Chris-2061626

whenever I'm on the toilet seat and run out of toilet paper, I think to myself, if only Sarah Palin was here!

#176 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:18 PM EDT

Gordonc

Like I said, If Sarah Palin is so irrelevant why does she make you libs so crazy?

As long she’s pissing off the libs, she’s got my vote!!!

3 votes

#176.1 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:31 PM EDT

Gordonc

Like I said, If Sarah Palin is so irrelevant why does she make you libs so crazy?

As long she’s pissing off the libs, she’s got my vote!!!

#176.2 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:33 PM EDT

Bill CT

TruePatriot-445959..great points..Ditto Heads complain about Obama and transparency but the applauded the SC ruling regarding 501-C4's..Naturally, 99.9% of the Heads don't know what 501-C4 are..

#177 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:40 PM EDT

anIndependent-721688

safecracker,

I respect very much the fact that you're working and is contributing to the society. and I agree with you that you shouldn't have to share your wealth with people who don't work.

let me ask you a question? do you have any insurance? do you think you need insurance? if you do, then let me tell you that insurance is basically a socialist idea just like the social security and medicare system, as well as any military system in any countries, including the u.s. As the term insurance implies, it makes you feel "safe" if anything bad should happen. I assure that that I'm not defending socialism as most people frown on it as a dirty word. The fact is that. capitalism alone will only create corruption and chaos in a society. socialism alone will only create frustration and depression. a healthy society needs both in well-controlled balance.

I agree that there are abusers of the social security and welfare system. we definitely need to reform and stop such abuses. but the basic idea of the system is sound and healthy.

now, let me ask you another question. why do you think you deserve your job more than other people who may be equally or even more qualified than you are? is it luck? is it God's will? is it FAIR?

when my bank account is lower than I like it to be. I want to complain about the tax and about the social security payment that are taken out of my paycheck. then I look at some people who're unemployed and realized how lucky I am.

there's no such insurance that we will have a job until we reach the age of reitrement. unemployment benefits and social security are the only thing that we would have if we are unfortunate to lose the job. can anyone gurantee that you should have a job for your lifetime? but with unemployment benefits and social security, we are guranteed that we will have some means to stay afloat for a while until we get some work. most people who are not working crave for work. I don't feel that I'm sharing my wealth with them. I feel that they're making me proud of myself.

1 vote

#178 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:49 PM EDT

safecracker

Independent,

Yes, I pay for my insurance, and I pay for my employees insurance as a benefit for working for me. Their contribution for complete faility coverage is $0, however they have the option of adding from their paychecks, additional converage for items I don't contribute, which is eyeglasses.

do I deserve my job more than others who may be equally or more qualified then me? The answer is yes. My company produces a produce that we sell for more than it costs to produce, and I do share with my employees 401K, $ for $ in good years, and .50 to .50 in bad years. Each Christmas I pay each employee $1000 bonus to purchase Christmas gifts for their families.

If anyone wants to assume the same risks that I did and do, let them earn a good living too. No one should want me to spend my money to support them. My value is that yes, let others take the same risk to earn the same amount of earnings I do. When I have my bank account lower than what I would like it to be, I go out and find more clients to sell my products and services to, allowing me the opportunity to add to my account. I also pay my stakeholders a good income and commissions to earn a good living.

I agree there is no insurance that we will have a job until retirement. No one but me will determine when that will happen or what amount of money I need to retire. Heck, I hope I never have to retire, I am having too much fun with my company.

But my thoughts differ with yours. What I have, I worked hard for and I am not about to share it with anyone else. Why is a 10% donation good enough for my church donation, but the greedy government wants to increase my tax rate from 35% to 39.6%?

I have an issue with this whole government thing.

1 vote

#178.1 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 5:44 PM EDT

asus2000

Allow Ron Paul to be a part of the GOP debates and he'll easily rise to the top and I believe he'll win the general election.

#179 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:54 PM EDT

Bill CT

Is it fair banks borrow money from the FR at 1% then loan it out a usery rates and credit cards are charge above mob rates,bringing $30,000,000,000 net profits?Look what Wall Street did to our economy.

#180 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:55 PM EDT

safecracker

Amazing the administration allows this to happen, rather than lend it to businesses and individuals.

#180.1 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 5:45 PM EDT

keepertrout

I don't feel it is correct for other countries to influence our political landscape and it should be disclosed what country or company runs a political add. These people need to learn how to run for office without spending millions of dollars.

#181 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 5:01 PM EDT

Wade-512031

I hear some people here still trying to defend this dictator Obama and the wicked witch of the west Pelosi and the brain dead zombie Reid and I just want to through my hands up in shout WHAT IDIOTS we have in America. As a retired Army Col. and teacher of history and engineering I just can't fathom how anyone could be so hateful of this great country that has done so much for so many around the world. How is it possible to have so many Americans according to the latest polls 38% of Americans would vote for Obama again! How is it possible to have that many people that hate America so much as to want this dictator to stay in power? What happened to America the great?

1 vote

#182 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 6:45 PM EDT

Indy Lib

What happened to America the great?

-----------------------------------------------

Bush happened.

#182.1 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 8:10 PM EDT

Sam-499819

Majority of low/middle income working class voters do not watch television quite often. These people are so preoccupied with work that they have no time to sit down and watch Television so some of them do not even know that there is an election coming in Nov 2^nd.

But you know what? This category of voters are always on the road either going to or coming from work and at shopping places trying to buy necessities. If both the parties (Democrats and Republicans) would have people volunteering to stand with big posters at various road intersections or at shopping areas to remind people that there is a major election on November 2nd, it will effectively pass the message across than spending millions of dollars on TV which non of this group of people even watch. Students also need to be reminded in this way because most students are now occupied with exams and assignments that they rarely watch TV but they can be reminded by these road side posters. ELECTIONS MATTER.

#183 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 6:52 PM EDT

Bigrat-417532

How about ANYBODY ! ! ! but the ignorant liberals in ther now? ?

#184 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 7:09 PM EDT

JobSeeker

Obama got 53% of the popular vote. In order to do that, he needed 60% of the independents. Game over. Independents feel duped. This is NOT what they voted for. You can have 100% turnout from liberals, blacks and students, but the winner gets the majority of the independents.

#185 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 8:26 PM EDT

osamaobama

Obammy has already scheduled a 12 day trip abroad for the day after elections...He wants no part of answering all the questions about why his supporters weren't reelected...this time Obammy is throwing the whole party under the bus...He's incompetent, corrupt and now we find out he's a whimp as well...what a leader...

The rarest thing in D.C. right now would be finding a Democrat incumbant who would admit that he voted for any of Obammy's Socialist agenda. They are all trying to convince their constituents that they had nothing to do with health care, cap and tax, bail outs, etc.

Just heard that this election will probably be the largest turnover in Congress since 1932. Now there is change we can believe in !!! Newt thinks about 60 seats in the House but I'm a little more optimistic..I think closer to 70 or 75..

#185.1 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 9:41 PM EDT

jim-2448998

defeat republicons, they have crashed the economy and exploded the national debt by trillions of dollars on fraudulent oil wars, what wmd ? the cons bailed out wall street bankers and ignored joe the plumber, dump the cons for their failed trickle down policies and lies. dump the cons for allowing 911 when they knew the terrorists could not land the planes.

1 vote

#186 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 9:57 PM EDT

jim-2448998

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#188 - Thu Oct 7, 2010 10:53 PM EDT

Alan W

Union Baby,, do you get excited everytime Obama takes care of you and your Union buddies at the expense of everyone else ?

I personally find watching Obama fail exciting . Did you find all the Communist groups (now openly associated with Democrats ) with your Union pals in DC last week end exciting ?

Good old America Values reflected by Ed Smith ( a total loon ) and the Unions, the NAACP, and 30 Communist Organizations in Washington DC --- What a pairing but what a party :-)

#189 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 2:13 AM EDT

Bali Bob

Seriously, who do the Republicans have to run for U.S. President in 2012?

Mitt Romney? Mike Huckabee? Sarah Palin? Please. Ain't gonna happen.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is already on deck for the Democrats in 2016, after President Obama finishes his second term.

Quake in fear, Republicans. You deserve it for making the rest of us do so during the Bush years.

#190 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 7:04 AM EDT

Steve-335260

Where's the buzz? Obama suckzzzzzzzz! Socializzzzm does not work. The GOP could run a billy goat against this loser and win.

1 vote

#191 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 7:56 AM EDT

jed233

You mean that the GOP has no big enough crooks to cause the stir that the present crooks have? What a grand time to be a freeloader in the USA. Lets see....Don't work, get three hots, a cot, a tv, and free health care....Work, get 3 hots, a cot, a tv and very expensive health care that I will be forced to pay for. That is the choice for the 60% of the work force that make under 49k a year. See what happens when gov gets out of control? Who cares who gets elected. The ruling elite class will call the shots. When ya flip a quarter up, it don't matter if it lands on heads or tails. It's still a quarter!! ......The real United States of America died in her sleep a while back. This is just a godless shell still writhing from the maggots eating her carcass from within. This has been happening to great civilizations since the beginning of recorded history for the same reasons. Nothing new going on around here.

1 vote

#192 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 8:07 AM EDT

Bali Bob

Steve,

The GOP "billy goat" of which you speak has already run his course.

His name was George W. Bush... and he sh@t all over the country.

#193 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 8:08 AM EDT

anIndependent-721688

safecracker,

glad that you're making over a quarter million $ a year. and I'm taking your words for it that you're treating your employees so well. I respect people like that.

the thing is that you're at the other end of the spectrum of working class. there're many people working for you who are in the other shoes. do you think they deserve unemployment when something happens? say, should your clients find some other company that may cost them less, they would drop you and move to other companies. you may not be affected too much, but all your loyal employees will be badly affected. these people who once helped you build your fortune will certainly need all the help and luck to land another job in this highly competitive global economy. not all of them will be fortunate enough to find jobs right away. many will rely on unemployment and maybe even welfare for a while before they can find another job. Don't you think they deserve some help and encouragement to get back on their feet?

by the way, are your employees u.s. citizens?

#194 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 9:12 AM EDT

bayllie

first of all - THEY ARE TAX CUTS...cuts...cuts.... cuts.... so if the Bush tax cuts expie they will go back to the normal rate. Don't keep using the word INCREASE!!!

second of all, I am still waiting for someone to tell me who will pay for these tax cuts if we continue them? The Chinese or old people?

The law says that in order for tax cuts to be permanent, they have to be paid for. So how?

#194.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:21 AM EDT

jed233

Just one small personal question if I may? What payer tier do you fall into? Tell the truth and shame the devil now.

#194.2 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:01 AM EDT

Cat-947570

If we get another Republican in office, we can bet we will be in another war. They love war, except if they are the ones who have to go fight. They love to send your kids and mine off to die.

If you think for one minute the Republicans work for the middle class you got another think coming. They are for big business and the rich. They stop oversight on these big companies and look what we got. It was the fox guarding the hen house. When they were done, there were no more hens. This a big fat fox. George Bush the moron and Dick Cheney are coward who did not have the balls to go to Vietnam , but they did not mind sending our people off to die in a senseless war. They spent billions and billions of our dollars on that trumped up war. So if you want to blame someone for the economy blame the ones responsible BUSH, CHENEY AND THE REST OF THE REPUBLICANS. Then you have McCain, he had the bright idea of having Palin run with him, what was that idiot thinking, she is too stupid to know she is stupid.

#195 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:14 AM EDT

Ike-1076172

Last election the GOP tried the crazy old coot and the brainless bimbo. How about trying the hypocrite and the crybaby in 2012 - Lou Dobbs and Glenn Beck?

#196 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:28 AM EDT

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