First Thoughts: Is D.C. underestimating Obama?

Is Washington underestimating Obama?... But here's a real test for the president: Can he get his voters out in states like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania?... Final jobs report before the midterms shows the economy lost 95,000 jobs and the unemployment steady at 9.6% (but private employers added 64,000 jobs)… Obama rails against outside group spending in twin events yesterday… The "W" word becomes an issue in the Brown-Whitman race… First Read's Top 10 TV ads… No.1 on our list? Christine O'Donnell's "I'm you" ad, and she's now running a second ad on this theme… And another poll shows Rubio leading in Florida.


*** A little counter C.W. with your Friday coffee: As President Obama draws 26,000 in Wisconsin, thousands yesterday in Maryland, and likely thousands in Philadelphia this weekend, it's worth asking whether there's a disconnect between how the president is perceived in Washington and how he's perceived in other parts of the country. Beltway reporters and columnists often use these adjectives in describing the president: beleaguered, struggling, disappointing. And the Washington chatter of the week was whether he needs Hillary's help for 2012. But here's a reality check: Obama's approval rating in the latest NBC/WSJ poll (46%) is just three points lower than George W. Bush's in the survey right before he won a second term (49%). And despite all the problems (a sluggish economy, a sour public, and a brutal midterm landscape for Democrats), Obama still has a strong base propping him up (Democrats, liberals, blacks, Hispanics, and young voters).

*** The president's real midterm test: Then again, the president has certainly served as a lightning rod in races across the country, especially former battleground states like Missouri (where Roy Blunt has tried to tie Obama to Robin Carnahan) and in places like West Virginia (where the NRSC had to take down that "hicky" ad tying the president to Joe Manchin). But the question -- with 25 days until Election Day -- is whether Obama has enough juice with his base in Wisconsin (where he was last week), Illinois (where he was last night), and Pennsylvania (where he'll be on Sunday) to help Democratic candidates in those states. He can get these folks to come to his rallies, but can he get them to the polls? These three states may be the best test of whether the president has midterm juice -- all three contain important (and apathetic?) parts of the Democratic Party's base, and all are being fought over national issues.

*** The last jobs report: Of course, Obama doesn't want to see more of these kinds of job numbers. In the final jobs report before the midterms, the Labor Department reported that a total of 95,000 were lost in September due to widespread government layoffs, the AP notes. The unemployment rate remains at 9.6%, but the private sector added 64,000 jobs. Six months ago, the White House and many Democrats believed the employment situation was going to be on an up-arrow trajectory by this last jobs report. Of course, it's anything but. This flat-lining of the U.S. economy began right around the oil spill, as the double hit of the spill and the Greek debt crisis in Europe took away any hope economists had that the corporate world would begin to spend money again. Obama will discuss the economy at 11:40 am ET.

*** Mo money, mo problems: In twin appearances yesterday, Obama stressed all the outside money -- some of it from abroad, he argued -- impacting this year's midterm races. Here was Obama at the rally in Maryland: "This is a threat to our democracy. The American people deserve to know who's trying to sway their elections. And if we just stand by and allow the special interests to silence anybody who's got the guts to stand up to them, our country is going to be a very different place." And here he was in Illinois at a fundraiser for Alexi Giannoulias: "In this Senate race, two groups funded and advised by Karl Rove have outspent the Democratic Party two to one in an attempt to beat Alexi -- two to one… Just this week, we learned that one of the largest groups paying for these ads regularly takes in money from foreign sources." While it's clear the White House wants to attention paid to how these groups are funded (and they are having a HUGE impact), it's not an issue many voters believe is of a high priority. Many Democrats struggling in their re-election bids aren't exactly jumping at the chance to talk about Citizens United. Instead, they'd prefer a cohesive economic message. Then again, the economy isn't exactly a plus for the Democrats so many the White House is right about this.

*** The "W" word: Another day, another controversy in California's gubernatorial contest. Here's the L.A. Times: "In a private conversation that was inadvertently taped by a voicemail machine, an associate of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown can be heard referring to his Republican opponent Meg Whitman as a 'whore' for cutting a deal protecting law enforcement pensions as the two candidates competed for police endorsements." Not surprisingly, the Whitman campaign jumped all over the remark in an effort to change the dynamics of a race that Brown is leading; Brown's camp apologized for the remark. This story cuts several ways. First, it could help Whitman with a key demographic she's trying to win over: educated women. Then again, it could undermine one of Whitman's chief attacks on Brown -- that he's in the pocket of unions -- because it suggests that Brown isn't willing to cut a deal with a police union to protect their pensions. Short term: It's a lifeline to Whitman as it changes the storyline, even for a day.

*** More O'Donnell ads (pro and con): Lo and behold, O'Donnell has a new TV ad that doubles down on the "I'm you" message. "I didn't go to Yale," she says to the camera. "I didn't inherit millions like my opponent. I'm you." Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new TV ad hitting O'Donnell. It goes, "Christine O'Donnell claims she'll control Washington spending. But look at her record. She was sued for not paying her bills. Didn't pay her taxes. Has a federal complaint filed against her for spending campaign funds on herself. If Christine O'Donnell wants to be irresponsible with her money- that's her business. But she's running for Senate- and being irresponsible with our money is our business."

*** More midterm news: In Alabama, "Rep. Bobby Bright on Thursday became the first Democratic incumbent to say publicly that he would not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker in the next Congress," CQ reports… In Florida, a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Marco Rubio (R) with a comfortable lead in the state's three-way Senate contest.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 25 days

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So if the "w" word is a problem for Brown then it should be double the problem for Miller in Alaska. Right? I am sure you remember, he, not an aide, called Murkoski the same name.

  • 1 vote
Reply#26 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:13 AM EDT

Patrick Salt Lake City

So if the "w" word is a problem for Brown then it should be double the problem for Miller in Alaska. Right? I am sure you remember, he, not an aide, called Murkoski the same name.

Thanks for restoring the balance.

  • 1 vote
#26.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:57 AM EDT

It is wrong no matter who said it...moral equivalence and selective outrage are the refuge of the hypocrite. You either condemn it or you don't.

  • 1 vote
#26.2 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:11 AM EDT
Reply

Two Witch Hunts, Two Failures and Frauds.

I thought MSNBC squandered what little integrity they had left last week when Larry O embarrassed himself by literally helping Levi Johnston through the interview in order to make the high school drop out look smart. But last night was priceless!

First Rachael interviewed Republican candidate Art Robinson, (chemist / scientist). She did everything she could not to talk about the present issues as he wanted to, nor talk about the flawed, dem opponent DeFazio. No, she stayed focused on misrepresenting complex scientific articles he had written 15 years ago. The interview was typical MSNBC anti-American guilty before proven innocent, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo. She threw everything she could on the wall trying to get something to stick, posing her statements in the form of questions as if she actually wanted an answer. But each time he tried to answer she wouldn’t let him. He finally called her out on it right there on national TV, exposing her as the bias, smearing, information twisting fraud that she is. At one point, she blamed her interruptions on him because he had no experience in interviews using a delayed satellite feed. There was no delay. So after arguing that point for a bit, it looked like she was finally going to let him answer a question. Immediately following his first 3 words, “let me explain” she interrupted him again and wouldn’t let him continue. It was nothing but 15 minutes of uncontrolled arguing. He annihilated her!

As if that wasn’t enough, next up Larry O interviewing Lou Dobbs and an author who wrote a smear article implying hypocrisy that he employed illegal immigrants, which he didn’t. Once again, in classic MSNBC anti-American guilty before proven innocent, Larry went on the attack. He even told Lou he was on trial. As Lou Dobbs presented his case, Larry’s witch hunt began to unravel. The author even had to admit she had no proof that Lou Dobbs either directly employed illegals, nor knowingly used illegals indirectly. Unbelievable! Yet Larry was bound and determined to get his man and tried to make something….anything stick somehow, someway. Wow what a buffoon and a fraud!

    Reply#27 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:15 AM EDT

    Dear Mirror of Truth:

    I think your Mirror of Truth is as cracked as Art Robinson is. As I said elsewhere, the guy didn't even understand the signal lag between question and response and got all paraonoid about it. Maybe he was a competent scientist earlier in life, but years of tea baggery have clearly done serious damage to his mental abilities.

    • 1 vote
    #27.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:48 AM EDT

    Rachael interviewed Republican candidate Art Robinson last night and I have never in my life seen someone made a fool of on her own show as Rachael was last night. You have to give Mr. Robinson credit for not just breaking out laughing at her. I wonder if she keeps her job after this? As to Houston are you on drugs or just a nut job? And why do your kind always stoop to using homophobic terms in an attempt to put someone down? I mean why do Dems hate gay people so much? What did they ever do to you? You do realize there is a chance Rachael is gay don't you? Stupid people like you need a party too that is why there will always be Democrats waiting for their hand out. As always you can contact me at work http://www.usa-businessreview.com Just trying to educate America one Dem at a time.

    • 1 vote
    #27.2 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:15 AM EDT
    Reply

    It's apparent to me that all of you are brainwashed party members(both Rebuplicans & Dems). When you start thinking for yourself then you can call yourselves true Americans. The party system needs to go, it's what got us into this mess in the first place. Please vote for the person not the party, the party system = the Mafia.

      Reply#28 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:21 AM EDT

      The Unions = the Mafia just ask Obozo

        #28.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:20 AM EDT
        Reply

        This article was in my local newspaper today:

        Foes of health care law lose key court ruling

        Detroit - A federal judge on Thursday upheld the authority of the federal government to require everyone to have health insurance, dealing a setback to groups seeking to block the new national health care plan.

        The ruling came in a lawsuit filed in Michigan by a Christian legal group and four people who claimed lawmakers exceeded their power under the Constitution's commerce clause, which authorizes Congress to regulate trade.

        But Judge George Caram Steeh in Detroit said the mandate to get insurance by 2014 and the financial penalty for skipping coverage are legal. He said Congress was trying to lower the overall cost of insurance by requiring participation.

        "Without the minimum coverage provision, there would be an incentive for some individuals to wait to purchase health insurance until they needed care, knowing that insurance would be available at all times," the judge said.

        "As a result, the most costly individuals would be in the insurance system and the least costly would be outside it" Steeh said. "In turn, this would aggravate current problems with cost-shifting and lead to even higher premiums."

        Now I have another question......if the Republicans do take back the House or Senate and when they start adding their laws to the books like:

        Trying to get rid of minimum wage or even lowering the wage and that of course will put alot of the people at the provery level.

        Saying that single women, gays or single mothers shouldn't be allow to teach in our school systems.

        Saying that mothers should stay home with the children.

        I mean I could go on and on and on with Republicans different views but wouldn't that also be considered socialism......just wondering.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#29 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:25 AM EDT

        What a historic opportunity America had to see that all of our citizens had health care. We were sold out by Obama and all of his lies. Because of his lies and refusal to
        televise the entire health care debate on C-SPAN as he promised the American people we ended up with a 2700 page piece of pork! No back room deals.......please no earmarks please......what happened to the public option? Because of Obama's lies like not posting it on the Internet for five days before signing it into law many on the left and right don't want it. You would think just this once Obama could have stopped pandering to special interest groups but no! We were cheated out of an opportunity that it is
        unlikely we will ever see again! I wish the guilty parties would step forward and then step down...never going to happen. Again it is America that lost and someone had their pockets lined. Will this ever stop? Obama how much did you get paid to sell your soul? Let not us forget everyone that voted for this! Thank you Republicans for standing up for the poor people who need Americas help! Once again the Democrats have proven they have no interest in protecting the poor. As always you can contact me at work http://www.usa-businessreview.com

        • 1 vote
        #29.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:36 AM EDT

        theomonk:

        Thank you Republicans for standing up for the poor people who need Americas help!

        You're kidding.... right??

        • 1 vote
        #29.2 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:05 AM EDT
        Reply

        For the OldGrayWolf:

        The Congress should have been developing and passing legislation that would give companies a reason to create new private sector jobs, give companies a reason to keep jobs held by taxpaying U.S. citizens here in the U.S. and filled by U.S. citizens, and give companies a reason to bring jobs that have been sent off shore, back to be filled by U.S. citizens.

        There are over 400 bills sitting in the Senate passed by Congress and being filibustered by Republicans. You cite many instances of why you thought nothing this Congress has done to date has worked. I have to ask if you are somewhat biased in your consideration as you neglect to mention why we are here in the first place.

        Some folks particularly "tea baggers" have a tendency to minimize their own contributions and maximize the blame on someone else. Republicans are famous for increasiong the national debt when they are in office, promoting world wide hatred for Americans, loosing power and blaming everything on the party in power.

        Wake the hell up!!!! You have been duped.

        • 1 vote
        Reply#30 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:29 AM EDT

        MSNBC had to spin this as a good thing. They are owned by GE and the CEO of GE, Jeffery Immelt, is now on Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. They arent going report the truth when it makes Obama look bad, especially during an election year. I can be contacted at work http://www.usa-businessreview.com Keep those emails coming Hope and change/Wing and nut

        • 2 votes
        Reply#31 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:30 AM EDT

        I underestimated him, I couldn't imagine he would be this bad.

          Reply#32 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:38 AM EDT

          Bottom line is, Nothing is getting done!

            Reply#33 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:46 AM EDT

            Nothing good for the United States of America. However, it is a grand time to be a freeloader in the USA right about now.

              #33.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:04 AM EDT
              Reply

              No, I think the whole country overestimated him. Theo, just a little inside info. GE just closed an electric motor factory in Al and is moving it to Mexico. The CEO is on the recovery board? When the actions don't match the expression is an indisputable indicator of deception. But in the case of hard core Obama supporters, Ya can't rape the willing.

              • 1 vote
              Reply#34 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:47 AM EDT

              Yes, the DC beltway has underestimated President Obama. They have underestimated him since he first entered the race for president. DC focused on his ability to inspire, to give excellent and thoughtful speeches but spent little time discussing his intelligence, his abilities, his accomplishments in the Illinois State Senate, his work in the US Senate. Instead what we hear is the DC beltway wisdom focused on his lack of anger, his calm demeanor--ignoring the fact that anger solves nothing, and that President Obama has a unique ability to focus on solving the problem rather than on the emotion surrounding it. I have said it before, President Obama is ten steps ahead of everyone else including the media. They will always be playing catch up.

              There was another poll this week showing President Obama's approval had risen to 50%. Considering the horrific mess that this president inherited, the near Great Depression, the constant negative and disgusting attacks by the right, the constant FOX noise of ugly politics, a GOP Senate blockade hindering every effort for months and months--I would say 46% is a great number. It is in some ways an unfair comparison to Bush's 49% at the same time--voters were still reeling from the 9/11 attacks and the economy appeared to be humming even though there were warning signs.

              As to whether or not the President can help Nov 2--yes, he can, but in the very red states and districts, that may not be enough. The trend is moving back toward democrats but this is one election that is not predictable based on polls. President Obama and VP Biden can fire up the base, remind voters what is at stake and that is exactly what they are doing.

                Reply#35 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:52 AM EDT

                I think all the money the GOP is pouring into ads has one BIG caveat...it doesn't make the ad a good one.  Case in point...the WV "hicky" ad.  Also, voters tend to be turned off by highly negative ads repeatedly

                  Reply#36 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 10:55 AM EDT

                  One of the Republican slush fund outfits is running fill-in-the-blanks ads race baiting Latinos, showing young Latino guys with threatening expressions on their faces to scare the white voters. Republican Senate candidates Sharron Angle and David (the Diaper Man) Vitter are using the same canned footage in their ads. I wonder how well these ads will work. Maybe they'llbackfire and the frightened white voters will all be hiding under their beds on election day rather than going to the polls.

                  • 1 vote
                  #36.1 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:12 AM EDT
                  Reply

                  The ones making noise are the jobless ones, and they have a good memory. I don't think they're going to turn on Obama just yet.

                    Reply#37 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:05 AM EDT

                    Why do you really think there are no jobs in America, right it is so easy to blame President Obama, The house and senate, but the top 5% of this countries riches people are controlling everything and until President Obama bows down and says yes master OK I'll extend your tax cuts and give you back everything we passed in the last 2 years, Financial reform, etc. There will be no jobs.

                    You can not tell me that with all the money these top 5% have made in the 10 years of the Bush's tax cuts that they couldn't have build clothing factories, shoe factories, furniture factories, manufacturing plants etc, to get Americans back to work, come on, get real, no they send these jobs overseas.

                    One of the biggest reason why these top 5% of the most powerful corporations are flooding the airways with billions of dollar of advertisement is they know if the Democrats pick up many more seats in the election they will not be able to undo the financial reforms and then other major countries around the world will follow suit and they will begin to come apart. There is a reason for this madness; they do not want to lose the hold they have on the entire world.

                    The 5% making billions, that are considered a small business, pay no taxes, collect tax refunds and then send our jobs overseas. and the biggest and perhaps the most shameful of all is the chamber of commence that is suppose to do the best they can for Small business, jobs and the economy, is placing 75 millions dollars into ads from foreign companies, to help the GOP stop the Democrats from helping the American people and taking the power back from companies overseas, with 90% filibustering and with 430 bills collecting dust on the senate floor, just so as DeMint said this will be Obama waterloo.

                    Did not or are not creating jobs and now turning this around on the democrats by saying that they do not know what it will cost for hiring. Their argument is the tax cut will add to their cost and insurance cost will add to their cost, they claim because of the health care reform their insurance costs have gone up, yes they have because the insurance companies are raising everything as much as they can before the biggest part of the health reform begins. They are turning them not creating jobs, back on us, when it really is plain and simple greed.

                    Instead of condemning President Obama we should be standing by him for trying to give control back to US the American people that our ancestors has build up from the ground and not letting domestic and foreign corporations control us anymore.

                    • 1 vote
                    Reply#38 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:12 AM EDT

                    Remember this video republicans were and are against democrats and the bills they wanted to get passed.

                    No you can’t (featuring John Boehner)

                    http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/index.php?page=videos&vid=14

                    Justin Coussoule (D) is running against Boehner. District 8 Ohio Nov 2 2010

                      Reply#39 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:13 AM EDT

                      Excellent!  Your post is outstanding!

                        Reply#40 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:17 AM EDT

                        To underestimate something is to think less of it than it deserves. What is less than zero?

                          Reply#41 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:22 AM EDT

                          The Washington media and pundits are so self-absorbed with their own self-importance in the media industry that they have long lost contact with the American people, exactly like many of the politicians who have been in Washington for too long. I am a retired journalist, and this dichotomy between the media and pundits inside the Beltway and the rest of the country is quite clearcut and disjointed from reality. They do indeed misperceive Obama and his impact. They are no longer leaders in the editorial opinion field -- just the opposite -- they are now laughingstocks, but they fail to perceive their unimportance because they are so wrapped up in themselves that their closed society is now completely cut off from the rest of America. Get out of Washington, people. Move to Nebraska or somewhere in the nation's breadbasket. Only then can you get your credibility and perspective back. Staying in Washington is like sinking into a black hole.

                            Reply#42 - Fri Oct 8, 2010 11:23 AM EDT
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