South Carolina's John Spratt -- A House Bull in the GOP Bull's-Eye

GAFFNEY, S.C. – Fourteen-term House Democrat John Spratt comes across as a throw-back to the days when Tip O'Neill or even Sam Rayburn ran Congress.

"That's the bane of my existence in politics -- I can't do sound bites," Spratt said in his slow-moving drawl. "But you know, the radio and TV guys have all the sound bites they need. Somebody has to go out there and explain things in some level of detail."

Detail is a specialty for Spratt, the green-eyeshade chairman of the House Budget Committee -- and now a leading senior Democrat on the GOP hit list. During a Monday afternoon interview, after touring a textile plant in Gaffney, I asked Spratt what I assumed (silly me) was a simple, straight-forward question. I inquired, in my best "Meet the Press" tone, how he would respond to Republican attack ads running across the country lambasting House Democrats (and, of course, Nancy Pelosi) for not producing a budget?

Investing nearly four minutes in his answer, Spratt knowledgeably covered everything from his advice to the Russian duma (never emulate the American budget process) to 1960s historical analogies ("We fought almost the entire Vietnam War without an adoption of a budget.") Hidden in the thicket of Spratt's ramble was a succinct answer: "Leadership never could tell me that they had the votes to pass it."

Most assessments call Spratt's race against Mick Mulvaney, a first-term state senator, a toss-up. John McCain carried this district, which abuts the North Carolina border, with 53 percent in the 2008 presidential race. Were it not for Spratt's personal popularity, S.C.-5 would probably have gone Republican more than a decade ago. That is why both the Mulvaney campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have been running commercials claiming that the beloved John Spratt of yesteryear has suddenly surrendered to the nefarious wiles of Nancy Pelosi. The latest NRCC ad, which appeared on South Carolina television Tuesday morning, ends with the tagline, "John Spratt's not our congressman any more."

Even though there are few reliable public polls, there is a valedictory aura to the Spratt campaign. When I met Spratt Saturday night in Rock Hill, at a scholarship banquet sponsored by a group of AME Zion churches, almost his first words to me about the race were, "I don't know. I don't know." In a more formal interview with the tape record running, though, Spratt said, "I'm in it to win it. I didn't get into this race for my health." Spratt, whose stooped posture makes him look older than his 67 years, suffers from mild Parkinson's disease ("The biggest thing I have is a tremor-y hand, which is more of a nuisance than anything.")

The Spratt campaign unveiled a new positive commercial Tuesday that begins with an unidentified woman saying to the camera, "It would be a shame if we lost John Spratt, just because people are unhappy with what is going on in Washington." That ad tells you all you need to know about the internal strategic calculations in the Spratt camp. Candidates who are leading by 20 points in the polls do not run 30-second spots of voters warning of the impending tragedy of their defeat.

That Spratt commercial wins major Fact Check plaudits from me, since it mirrors what I had been hearing from real-life Spratt supporters. Gaffney Mayor Henry Jolly said, "If we don't pull it out for John, it will be a disgrace to the country. But I'm concerned." At a Saturday night wedding reception in Rock Hill (it was at a bar where I was getting a nightcap), a middle-aged woman said about her congressman, a Yale Law School graduate, "John Spratt is one of the smartest people I know. Too bad he is going to lose to a buffoon."

Mick Mulvaney is not a buffoon, but a real estate developer turned politician, who in a blue blazer and khaki slacks looks the part. Monday morning at the beginning of a districtwide bus tour ("The TV in there is bigger than the one in my house," the Republican candidate marveled), I interviewed Mulvaney in Lancaster.

"The national media always asks me, 'What's it like to be part of a wave election?'" Mulvaney announced before I could even ask a question. "While it is fun to read about yourself in a national newspaper -- the election here is really about John's voting record. If John had voted against even one of the pillars of the three pillars of the Obama administration" – Mulvaney was referring to the stimulus, cap-and-trade energy legislation and the health care bill – "you couldn't beat him."

As Mulvaney tells it (hint: he may have an ax to grind), referring to the health care vote that he considers the launching pad for his campaign, "Everyone around here knows that John was told what to do. Left to his own devices, the John Spratt of 15 years ago would have voted against it. I think 28 years in D.C. changes you."

Running in a district that is 31 percent black, Spratt is making a virtue of necessity by embracing Barack Obama's record. Speaking to an enthusiastic largely African-American crowd Saturday night at the church banquet in Rock Hill, Spratt warned, "If the president loses a working majority in the House and Senate, he will be a lame-duck president for the next two years." That blunt assessment prompted cries of agreement. "I want to help him succeed," Spratt said. "I want to go back so I can help him succeed."

Obama has returned the compliment by cutting a radio ad for Spratt that is (surprise) mostly running on black-oriented stations. "I'm determined to change Washington and make our government work for the people, not the special interests," the president says in the commercial. "And John Spratt has been working with me every step of the way."

Working against Spratt every step of the way, though, is demographic change in places like York County (nearly one-third of the vote), which is fast becoming a Charlotte suburb. As I had lunch in Baxter Village, a planned community in northern York County, I realized that I was eating in a fake English pub in a fake old-time Southern small town. "Baxter Village was woods when John Spratt went to Congress," said Scott Huffman, a political scientist at Winthrop University. "It isn't Celebration, Fla., but it's close. And these people are not natural John Spratt voters."

While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has been spending heavily on attack ads against Mulvaney (mostly over Social Security) the incoming fire against Spratt from outside groups is at near-record levels for a 2010 House race ($2.1 million). Aside from the NRCC spot, the most visible anti-Spratt ad on South Carolina television on Tuesday morning was sponsored by the National Federation of Independent Business. The spot blamed Spratt in a scolding woman's voice for "Reckless spending, massive debt – and still no jobs."

But even as the race in S.C.-5 is mostly a living-room war of dueling TV commercials, Spratt's courtly 20^thcentury style of campaigning may still eke out a victory. "The savants in Washington can't understand why John Spratt is still here," said David White, a Republican Rock Hill attorney, who was finance chairman ("We raised $50,000") for the congressman's first campaign in 1982. "But John has learned retail politics and made a connection with enough people to carry him through. Up until now."

But those ominous three words – "up until now" – suggest that even his longest and most loyal supporters worry that this is the year when John Spratt is finally dragged down by political gravity.