Library

 

Appendix

APPENDIX

Selected Literature

Intelligence Tools and Techniques

Jerome K. Clauser and Sandra M. Weir, Intelligence Research Methodology: An Introduction to Techniques and Procedures for Conducting Research in Defense Intelligence (Washington, DC: US Defense Intelligence School, 1976).

Stanley Feder, “FACTIONS and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics,” (1987) in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed., Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995).

Craig Fleisher and Babette Bensoussan, Strategic and Competitive Analysis. Methods and Techniques for Analyzing Business Competition (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, 2003).

Leonard Fuld, The New Competitor Intelligence. The Complete Resource for Finding, Analyzing, and Using Information About Your Competitors (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995).

Ronald Garst, ed., A Handbook of Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence College, 1989).

R. Hopkins, Warnings of Revolution: A Case Study of El Salvador (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1980) TR 80-100012.

Morgan Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit: 14 Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving (New York, NY: Times Business, 1998).

Larry Kahaner, Competitive Intelligence. How to Gather, Analyze, and Use Information to Move Your Business to the Top (New York: Touchstone, Simon and Schuster, 1996).

Jonathan Lockwood and K. Lockwood, “The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP),” Defense Intelligence Journal 3, no. 2 (1994): 47–74.

Douglas J. MacEachin, et al., The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA (Washington, DC: Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, 1994).

Don McDowell, Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers and Users (Canberra, Australia: Istana Enterprises, 1998).

Marilyn Peterson, Applications in Criminal Analysis (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1995).

———, Bob Morehouse, and Richard Wright, eds. Intelligence 2000: Revising the Basic Elements (Sacramento CA: LEIU and IALEIA, 2000).

John Pierce, “Some Mathematical Methods for Intelligence Analysis,” Studies in Intelligence 21 (Summer 1977, declassified): 1–19.

John Prescott and Stephen Miller, eds. Proven Strategies in Competitive Intelligence (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001).

Edwin Sapp, “Decision Trees,” Studies in Intelligence 18 (Winter 1974, declassified): 45–57.

David Schum, The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press, 1994).

Jack Zlotnick, “Bayes’ Theorem for Intelligence Analysis,” (1972), in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed. Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995).

 

Cognitive Processes and Intelligence

Edgar Johnson, Effects of Data Source Reliability on Inference (Alexandria, VA: Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Technical Paper #251, 1974).

Robert Mathams, “The Intelligence Analyst’s Notebook,” in Douglas Dearth and R. Thomas Goodden, eds., Strategic Intelligence: Theory and Application, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1995).

Avi Shlaim, “Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War,” World Politics 28, no. 3 (1976): 348–80.

 

Tools and Techniques as Cognitive Processes

Bruce D. Berkowitz and Allan E. Goodman, Best Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000).

———, and Allan E. Goodman, Strategic Intelligence for American National Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989).

Sherman Kent, “Words of Estimative Probability,” Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1994).

Lisa Krizan, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone (Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1999).

 

Intelligence Analysis as Individual Cognitive Process

Alexander Butterfield, The Accuracy of Intelligence Assessment: Bias, Perception, and Judgment in Analysis and Decision (Newport, RI: Naval War College, 1993).

Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999).

Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977).

Ephraim Kam, Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988).

Geraldine Krotow, The Impact of Cognitive Feedback on the Performance of Intelligence Analysts (Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 1992).

Mark Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (Washington, DC: CQ, 2000).

David Moore, Creating Intelligence: Evidence and Inference in the Analysis Process. Unpublished Masters Thesis (Washington DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 2002).

J. R. Thompson, R. Hopf-Weichel, and R. Geiselman, The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis (Alexandria, VA: Army Research Institute, Research Report 1362, 1984).

 

Error

Daniela Busse and Chris Johnson “Using a Cognitive Theoretical Framework to Support Accident Analysis,” in Proceedings of the Working Group on Human Error, Safety, and System Development (Seattle, WA: International Federation for Information Processing, 1998, 36–43).

Peter Fishburn, Utility Theory for Decision Making (New York: John Wiley, 1970).

Paul Fitts and Michael Posner, Human Performance (Belmont, CA: Brooks Cole, 1967).

John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making,” Harvard Business Review, Sept.– Oct. 1998: 47–58.

Hede Helfrich, “Human Reliability from a Social-Psychological Perspective,” International Journal Human-Computer Studies 50 (1999): 193–212.

Erik Hollnagel, “The Phenotype of Erroneous Actions,” International Journal of Man-Machine Studies 39 (1993): 1–32.

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,” Econometrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–91.

Duncan Luce and Howard Raiffa, “Utility Theory” in Paul Moser, ed. Rationality in Action: Contemporary Approaches (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990).

Judith Orasanu and Lynne Martin, “Errors in Aviation Decision Making: A Factor in Accidents and Incidents” in Proceedings of the Working Group on Human Error, Safety, and System Development (Seattle, WA: International Federation for Information Processing, 1998, 100–107).

James Reason, Human Error (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990).

John Senders and Neville Moray, Human Error: Cause, Prediction and Reduction (Hillsdale, NJ: Earlbaum, 1991).

Neville Stanton and Sarah Stevenage, “Learning to Predict Human Error: Issues of Acceptability, Reliability and Validity,” Ergonomics 41, no. 11 (1998): 1737–56.

 

Language and Cognition

Terry K. Au, “Chinese and English Counterfactuals: The Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis Revisited,” Cognition 15 (1983): 155-187.

Alfred Bloom, The Linguistic Shaping of Thought: A Study in the Impact of Language on Thinking in China and the West (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1981).

Lera Boroditsky, “Does Language Shape Thought? Mandarin and English Speakers’ Conceptions of Time,” Cognitive Psychology 43 (2001):1–22.

Ernest Cassirer, “Le Langage et le Monde des Objets,” Journal de Psychologie Nomale et Pathologique 30, 1(4) (1933): 18–44.

John Gumperz and Dell Hymes, Directions in Sociolinguistics: The Ethnography of Communication (Oxford: B. Blackwell, 1986).

———, and Stephen Levinson, Rethinking Linguistic Relativity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996).

Harry Hoijer, “The Relation of Language to Culture” in Alfred Kroeber, ed. Anthropology Today (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953).

Wilhelm von Humboldt “Uber die Verschiedenheit des Menschlichen Sprachbaues” in B. Bohr, ed. Gesammelte Schriften (Berlin: Verlag, 1907).

Earl Hunt and Franca Agnoli, “The Whorfian Hypothesis. A Cognitive Psychology Perspective,” Psychological Review 98, no. 3 (1991): 377–89.

Dell Hymes, ed. Language in Culture and Society: A Reader in Linguistics and Anthropology (New York: Harper and Row, 1977).

Penny Lee, The Whorf Theory Complex: A Critical Reconstruction (Amsterdam: Benjamins, 1996).

Lisa Liu, “Reasoning Counterfactually in Chinese: Are There any Obstacles?” Cognition 21 (1985): 239–70.

John Lucy, Grammatical Categories and Cognition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992) and Language Diversity and Thought (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992).

George Miller and Philip Johnson-Laird, Language and Perception (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1976).

Richard Nisbett and Ara Norenzayan, “Culture and Cognition” in Douglas Medin and Hal Pashler, eds. Stevens’ Handbook of Experimental Psychology, 3rd ed. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2002).

Edward Sapir, Language (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1949).

Jost Trier, Der deutsche Wortschatz im Sinnbezirk des Verstandes (Heidelberg: Carl Winter, 1931).

Leo Weisgerber, Vom Weltbild der Deutschen Sprache (Dusseldorf: Padagogischer Verlag Schwann, 1953).

Benjamin Whorf, Language, Thought, and Reality (New York: John Wiley, 1956).


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