Thinking About Thinking
Of the diverse problems that impede accurate intelligence analysis, those inherent in human mental processes are surely among the most important and most difficult to deal with. Intelligence analysis is fundamentally a mental process, but understanding this process is hindered by the lack of conscious awareness of the workings of our own minds.
A basic finding of cognitive psychology is that people have no conscious experience of most of what happens in the human mind. Many functions associated with perception, memory, and information processing are conducted prior to and independently of any conscious direction. What appears spontaneously in consciousness is the result of thinking, not the process of thinking.
Weaknesses and biases inherent in human thinking processes can be demonstrated through carefully designed experiments. They can be alleviated by conscious application of tools and techniques that should be in the analytical tradecraft toolkit of all intelligence analysts.
"When we speak of improving the mind we are usually referring to the acquisition of information or knowledge, or to the type of thoughts one should have, and not to the actual functioning of the mind. We spend little time monitoring our own thinking and comparing it with a more sophisticated ideal." 11
When we speak of improving intelligence analysis, we are usually referring to the quality of writing, types of analytical products, relations between intelligence analysts and intelligence consumers, or organization of the analytical process. Little attention is devoted to improving how analysts think.
Thinking analytically is a skill like carpentry or driving a car. It can be taught, it can be learned, and it can improve with practice. But like many other skills, such as riding a bike, it is not learned by sitting in a classroom and being told how to do it. Analysts learn by doing. Most people achieve at least a minimally acceptable level of analytical performance with little conscious effort beyond completing their education. With much effort and hard work, however, analysts can achieve a level of excellence beyond what comes naturally.
Regular running enhances endurance but does not improve technique without expert guidance. Similarly, expert guidance may be required to modify long-established analytical habits to achieve an optimal level of analytical excellence. An analytical coaching staff to help young analysts hone their analytical tradecraft would be a valuable supplement to classroom instruction.
One key to successful learning is motivation. Some of CIA's best analysts developed their skills as a consequence of experiencing analytical failure early in their careers. Failure motivated them to be more self-conscious about how they do analysis and to sharpen their thinking process.
This book aims to help intelligence analysts achieve a higher level of performance. It shows how people make judgments based on incomplete and ambiguous information, and it offers simple tools and concepts for improving analytical skills.
Part I identifies some limitations inherent in human mental processes. Part II discusses analytical tradecraft--simple tools and approaches for overcoming these limitations and thinking more systematically. Chapter 8, "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses," is arguably the most important single chapter. Part III presents information about cognitive biases--the technical term for predictable mental errors caused by simplified information processing strategies. A final chapter presents a checklist for analysts and recommendations for how managers of intelligence analysis can help create an environment in which analytical excellence flourishes.
Herbert Simon first advanced the concept of "bounded" or limited rationality.12 Because of limits in human mental capacity, he argued, the mind cannot cope directly with the complexity of the world. Rather, we construct a simplified mental model of reality and then work with this model. We behave rationally within the confines of our mental model, but this model is not always well adapted to the requirements of the real world. The concept of bounded rationality has come to be recognized widely, though not universally, both as an accurate portrayal of human judgment and choice and as a sensible adjustment to the limitations inherent in how the human mind functions.13
Much psychological research on perception, memory, attention span, and reasoning capacity documents the limitations in our "mental machinery" identified by Simon. Many scholars have applied these psychological insights to the study of international political behavior.14 A similar psychological perspective underlies some writings on intelligence failure and strategic surprise.15
This book differs from those works in two respects. It analyzes problems from the perspective of intelligence analysts rather than policymakers. And it documents the impact of mental processes largely through experiments in cognitive psychology rather than through examples from diplomatic and military history.
A central focus of this book is to illuminate the role of the observer in determining what is observed and how it is interpreted. People construct their own version of "reality" on the basis of information provided by the senses, but this sensory input is mediated by complex mental processes that determine which information is attended to, how it is organized, and the meaning attributed to it. What people perceive, how readily they perceive it, and how they process this information after receiving it are all strongly influenced by past experience, education, cultural values, role requirements, and organizational norms, as well as by the specifics of the information received.
This process may be visualized as perceiving the world through a lens or screen that channels and focuses and thereby may distort the images that are seen. To achieve the clearest possible image of China, for example, analysts need more than information on China. They also need to understand their own lenses through which this information passes. These lenses are known by many terms--mental models, mind-sets, biases, or analytical assumptions.
In this book, the terms mental model and mind-set are used more or less interchangeably, although a mental model is likely to be better developed and articulated than a mind-set. An analytical assumption is one part of a mental model or mind-set. The biases discussed in this book result from how the mind works and are independent of any substantive mental model or mind-set.
Before obtaining a license to practice, psychoanalysts are required to undergo psychoanalysis themselves in order to become more aware of how their own personality interacts with and conditions their observations of others. The practice of psychoanalysis has not been so successful that its procedures should be emulated by the intelligence and foreign policy community. But the analogy highlights an interesting point: Intelligence analysts must understand themselves before they can understand others. Training is needed to (a) increase self-awareness concerning generic problems in how people perceive and make analytical judgments concerning foreign events, and (b) provide guidance and practice in overcoming these problems.
Not enough training is focused in this direction--that is, inward toward the analyst's own thought processes. Training of intelligence analysts generally means instruction in organizational procedures, methodological techniques, or substantive topics. More training time should be devoted to the mental act of thinking or analyzing. It is simply assumed, incorrectly, that analysts know how to analyze. This book is intended to support training that examines the thinking and reasoning processes involved in intelligence analysis.
As discussed in the next chapter, mind-sets and mental models are inescapable. They are, in essence, a distillation of all that we think we know about a subject. The problem is how to ensure that the mind remains open to alternative interpretations in a rapidly changing world.
The disadvantage of a mind-set is that it can color and control our perception to the extent that an experienced specialist may be among the last to see what is really happening when events take a new and unexpected turn. When faced with a major paradigm shift, analysts who know the most about a subject have the most to unlearn. This seems to have happened before the reunification of Germany, for example. Some German specialists had to be prodded by their more generalist supervisors to accept the significance of the dramatic changes in progress toward reunification of East and West Germany.
The advantage of mind-sets is that they help analysts get the production out on time and keep things going effectively between those watershed events that become chapter headings in the history books.16
A generation ago, few intelligence analysts were self-conscious and introspective about the process by which they did analysis. The accepted wisdom was the "common sense" theory of knowledge--that to perceive events accurately it was necessary only to open one's eyes, look at the facts, and purge oneself of all preconceptions and prejudices in order to make an objective judgment.
Today, there is greatly increased understanding that intelligence analysts do not approach their tasks with empty minds. They start with a set of assumptions about how events normally transpire in the area for which they are responsible. Although this changed view is becoming conventional wisdom, the Intelligence Community has only begun to scratch the surface of its implications.
If analysts' understanding of events is greatly influenced by the mind-set or mental model through which they perceive those events, should there not be more research to explore and document the impact of different mental models?17
The reaction of the Intelligence Community to many problems is to collect more information, even though analysts in many cases already have more information than they can digest. What analysts need is more truly useful information--mostly reliable HUMINT from knowledgeable insiders--to help them make good decisions. Or they need a more accurate mental model and better analytical tools to help them sort through, make sense of, and get the most out of the available ambiguous and conflicting information.
Psychological research also offers to intelligence analysts additional insights that are beyond the scope of this book. Problems are not limited to how analysts perceive and process information. Intelligence analysts often work in small groups and always within the context of a large, bureaucratic organization. Problems are inherent in the processes that occur at all three levels--individual, small group, and organization. This book focuses on problems inherent in analysts' mental processes, inasmuch as these are probably the most insidious. Analysts can observe and get a feel for these problems in small-group and organizational processes, but it is very difficult, at best, to be self-conscious about the workings of one's own mind.
11James L. Adams, Conceptual Blockbusting: A Guide to Better Ideas (New York: W.W. Norton, second edition, 1980), p. 3.
12Herbert Simon, Models of Man, 1957.
13James G. March., "Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice," in David E. Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, eds., Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions (Cambridge University Press, 1988).
14Among the early scholars who wrote on this subject were Joseph De Rivera, The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy (Columbus, OH: Merrill, 1968), Alexander George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), and Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976).
15Christopher Brady, "Intelligence Failures: Plus Ca Change. . ." Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 8, No. 4 (October 1993). N. Cigar, "Iraq's Strategic Mindset and the Gulf War: Blueprint for Defeat," The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 15, No. 1 (March 1992). J. J. Wirtz, The Tet Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War (New York, 1991). Ephraim Kam, Surprise Attack (Harvard University Press, 1988). Richard Betts, Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning (Brookings, 1982). Abraham Ben-Zvi, "The Study of Surprise Attacks," British Journal of International Studies, Vol. 5 (1979). Iran: Evaluation of Intelligence Performance Prior to November 1978 (Staff Report, Subcommittee on Evaluation, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, US House of Representatives, January 1979). Richard Betts, "Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable," World Politics, Vol. 31, No. 1 (October 1978). Richard W. Shryock, "The Intelligence Community Post-Mortem Program, 1973-1975," Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Fall 1977). Avi Schlaim, "Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War," World Politics, Vol. 28 (April 1976). Michael Handel, Perception, Deception, and Surprise: The Case of the Yom Kippur War (Jerusalem: Leonard Davis Institute of International Relations, Jerusalem Paper No. 19, 1976). Klaus Knorr, "Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Cuban Missiles," World Politics, Vol. 16 (1964).
16This wording is from a discussion with veteran CIA analyst, author, and teacher Jack Davis.
17Graham Allison's work on the Cuban missile crisis (Essence of Decision, Little, Brown & Co., 1971) is an example of what I have in mind. Allison identified three alternative assumptions about how governments work--a rational actor model, an organizational process model, and a bureaucratic politics model. He then showed how an analyst's implicit assumptions about the most appropriate model for analyzing a foreign government's behavior can cause him or her to focus on different evidence and arrive at different conclusions. Another example is my own analysis of five alternative paths for making counterintelligence judgments in the controversial case of KGB defector Yuriy Nosenko: Richards J. Heuer, Jr., "Nosenko: Five Paths to Judgment," Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 31, No. 3 (Fall 1987), originally classified Secret but declassified and published in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed., Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal 1955-1992 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995).