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“How good is your batting average?” Early IC Efforts To Assess the Accuracy of Estimates

By Jim Marchio

The author, who works in the ODNI’s Analytic Integrity and Standards Group, looks at historical efforts to “validate,” or evaluate the accuracy of intelligence estimates. Such efforts were mandated in early directives governing the production of estimates. Drawing on Sherman Kent and other senior officials of the time, Jim reveals how difficult, and controversial, the endeavor actually was.

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Posted: Mar 06, 2017 02:19 PM
Last Updated: Mar 06, 2017 02:19 PM