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Agency PageA Theorem for Prediction
A Theorem for Prediction, Jack Zlotnick. Philosophy, wrote critic and educator Mortimer Adler, is the process of entertaining any idea as merely possible. This act of tentative acceptance is the good beginning in intelligence analysis. The desirable end is a correct evaluation of the several hypotheses' comparative merits...
Agency PageOn the Soviet Nuclear Scent
On the Soviet Nuclear Scent, Henry S. Lowenhaupt. As World War II in Europe ended, the German nuclear scientists, handicapped by insufficient coordination and paltry official backing, were nevertheless only just short of achieving a self-sustaining chain reaction in a heavy-water-moderated pile. They had elaborated most aspects of reactor theory; they knew the best arrangement for the lattice of fuel elements; they had gained experience in the production and casting of metallic uranium. They had prepared detailed designs for two pilot plants for the industrial production of heavy water. They had also experimented with several methods of isotope separation for concentrating the fissile U-235. especially the gas centrifuge method, though none of these had by any means reached the production stage. In short, they had a body of know-how, experimental machines, and basic materials unique outside the United States and Britain...
Agency PageAerial Photography for Agriculture
Aerial Photography for Agriculture, William R. Gasser. Aerial photography has been used in the United States for several decades to obtain useful information on agricultural resources, and in recent years intelligence analysts have taken increasing advantage of it for help in estimating crops and identifying trouble spots in the agricultural sector of Communist countries. As a source of intelligence on the agriculture of a foreign power it is still in its infancy, but it shows promise of becoming a valuable aid...
Agency PageThe Metal Traces Test
The Metal Traces Test, William J. Maximov and Edward Scrutchings. To the many new techniques we have had to develop in adapting to the peculiarities of counterinsurgent action there has now been added a sophisticated yet simple procedure that can help pick out the active guerrilla from the general population into which he melts. In a more or less homogeneous population the activist insurgents, the apathetic, and the loyal all appear as alike as peas in a pod and usually cannot be distinguished without their perpetration of some overt act. The ubiquity of the guerrilla, his discipline and adherence to the principles of secrecy, and his coercive tactics, as well as his chameleon-like adaptation to his environment, add to the difficulty of identifying him. In past so-called search-and-clear operations into guerrilla areas the process of sorting and screening large numbers of the rural population to detect activists has been less than effective. Definitive biographical information is usually lacking, and frequently a lack of staying power in the area limits the time available for interrogations...
Agency PageRoderick "Steve" Hall
Roderick 'Steve' Hall, Anthony Quibble. The Steve Hall story was twice told publicly during General Donovan's drive in 1945 to build support for continuing the OSS in peacetime, but in both tellings the form was summary, the information was incomplete and in part mistaken, and the drama was lost among the many other grim and heroic war's-end tales. Besides, the documents in the OSS archives tell it best by themselves, without the intrusion of an outsider. That is what follows...
Agency PageRoderick 'Steve' Hall
Roderick 'Steve' Hall
Agency PageThe Sherlock Holmes of the Revolution
The Sherlock Holmes of the Revolution, Rita T. Kronenhitter. Vladimir Lvovich Burtzev, active chiefly as a revolutionary propagandist in Petersburg and abroad after the failure of the 1905 uprising, had been a leading terrorist twenty and more years earlier. Now, though venerated by the younger generation of insurgents for his past achievements and appreciated for his present propaganda services, he was considered too meek and gentle to mix into current terrorist plotting. He was never a member of any of the numerous revolutionary committees nor admitted to the inner councils. He was above all not privy to the dead secrecy of assassination conspiracies...
Agency PageThe Sherlock Holmes of the Revolution
The Sherlock Holmes of the Revolution
Agency PageTo Move a Nation by Roger Hilsman. Book review by Abbot E. Smith
To Move a Nation by Roger Hilsman, Book review by Abbot E. Smith. In 1958 Roger Hilsman received a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation "to study the politics of policy-making in foreign affairs." Not long after commencing work on the project he was summoned to be Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research in the State Department, and then Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs. Sometime after the death of President Kennedy he left the government, went to a professorial post at Columbia, and recollected in tranquility the course of events he had experienced. This book is the result...