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'Rolling Thunder' and Bomb Damage to Bridges; Kenneth C. Fuller, Bruce Smith, and Merle Atkins. The program known as Rolling Thunder, a systematic but restrained air offensive against selected economic and military targets in North Vietnam, began on 2 March 1965. The basic objectives of Rolling Thunder were to reduce the ability of North Vietnam to support the Communist insurgencies in South Vietnam and Laos; to increase progressively the pressure on North Vietnam to the point where the regime would decide it was too costly to continue directing and supporting the insurgency in the south; and to bolster the confidence and morale of the South Vietnamese. As the days of the air campaign over North Vietnam stretched into months, the requirement developed in Washington and particularly in the White House for independent assessments of the results. As a consequence, CIA was asked to make its own assessment of the bombing campaign as well as to join the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in the preparation of an analysis for the Secretary of Defense. The work on bomb damage to bridges, which is discussed in this paper, is one example of the reporting on the Rolling Thunder program. Although the extent of damage and the cost of repair are the principal topics discussed here, the White House was equally concerned to find out how much time would be needed to restore lines of communication (LOCs)...
Cloud Nine: A Problem in Intelligence Production, James W. Featherstone. On the 24th of January, 1969, there descended upon the Directorate for Intelligence at CIA a document that for a brief but frantic period was to try the resources of the Directorate in some ways more severely than they had ever before been tested. This document was a National Security Council directive, later dubbed by those who became affected by it, with appropriate irony, "Cloud Nine." This directive called for an inventory of the international situation as of 20 January 1969, in the form of a "current assessment of the political, economic, and security situation and of the major problems relevant to US security interests and US bilateral and multilateral relations" world-wide. It demanded, in addition, "a discussion, where appropriate, of the data upon which judgments are based, uncertainties regarding the data, and alternative possible interpretations of the data." To make certain that the response was properly pointed, the directive posed, in 52 pages, a total of 893 probing questions touching almost every country on the globe. The answers were to be in the President's bands by the 20th of February, a matter of 26 days, including weekends...
detecting Soviet underground nuclear explosions, James R Shea. Every year hundreds of seismic events occur in the Soviet Union and are detected by sensors of the US Atomic Energy Detection System (USAEDS). Finding out which of these disturbances are earthquakes and which are the dozen or so underground nuclear events conducted each year by the Soviets is a major task for the intelligence community. This has been of particular importance since the signing of the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963, which required the Soviets to conduct all their nuclear tests underground...
On the Accuracy of National Intelligence Estimates, Abbot E. Smith. Whenever I talk about National Intelligence Estimates to an intelligence training course, or to any other group, someone always asks: How accurate have these estimates been; what is your score? The question is perfectly legitimate but my answer is usually vague and unconvincing. The purpose of this article is to try to explain why the answer is so unsatisfactory, and then to explore the problem further...
Defense Against Communist Interrogation Organizations, Michael L. Mineur. The suggestions offered herein for practical defense against Communist interrogation organizations are designed to be used very selectively and with caution in the briefing of anti-Communist secret agents running the danger of Communist imprisonment. Because some of the tactics outlined could be of use to other categories of persons, such as prisoners of war, political prisoners, and noncombatants, this study is offered with the reservation that it is not to be construed either as a modification of official US Government doctrine or an exhaustive treatment of the Communist system of prisoner management and exploitation...
The Bogotazo, Jack Davis. On the afternoon of 9 April 1948, angry mobs suddenly and swiftly reduced the main streets of Bogota to a smoking ruin. Radio broadcasts, at times with unmistakable Communist content, called for the overthrow of the Colombian government and of "Yankee Imperialism." Many rioters wore red arm bands; some waved banners emblazoned with the hammer-and-sickle. A mob gutted the main floor of the Capitola Nacional, disrupting the deliberations of the Ninth International Conference of American States and forcing Secretary of State Marshall and the other delegates to take cover. The army regained control of the city over the next day or two. But not before several thousand Colombians had been killed. It was the bogotazo...
Platt's Law, Washington Platt. All old-time analysts in the profession have heard of Platt's Law; few are familiar with its exact terms. Like Darwin's theory of evolution, it has often been distorted or misrepresented, giving rise to grave errors. For the guidance of the young we publish herewith the original formulation of this seminal discovery, as recently exhumed from ancient files...