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Decision Trees

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Decision Trees  
  
be moved once the decision has been made. You have only two strategies: outside and inside. The chance event is rain or no rain. The tree would look like this:
  

Picture

  
     Note a few formalities: decisions are normally rendered as squares, and chance events as circles. The connecting lines, called branches, depict alternatives. Trees are normally drawn from left to right on the long axis, but where necessary have been rendered from top to bottom for easier presentation in this publication.
  
     Now assess the subjective value of the ultimate alternatives: there are four, so on an ascending scale, outside-no rain-comfort would rate "4," while outsiderain-disaster is last and least.
  
     You also have a quantified probability to crank into the chance event-if you believe your weather bureau, it's 60-40 against rain. When you have multiplied the subjective value by the probability of the alternative, the completed tree looks like this:
  

Picture

  
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Posted: May 08, 2007 08:43 AM
Last Updated: May 08, 2007 08:43 AM