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Agency PageThe Problem of Scientific Surprise
The Problem of Scientific Surprise, James G. Ostensoe. Unforeseen Soviet achievements in science and technology have shown in recent years that means should be found whereby intelligence estimates can better anticipate the results of Soviet research and development, forestalling scientific and technological surprise and providing lead time for our own research and development programs. Precision or certainty in the prediction of Soviet advances can of course not be expected, but it may be possible to develop methods of using the information we do obtain on current Soviet scientific activity to gain some insight into the likelihood of future achievements. In 1957 a series of studies aimed at developing such methods, essentially a search for indicators, trends, and patterns that might make it possible to foresee at least certain kinds of scientific and technological innovations with some measure of accuracy and reliability, was begun ...
Agency PageCombat Intelligence: A Comparative Evaluation
Combat Intelligence: A Comparative Evaluation, Lyman B. Kirkpatrick. The "final after action" report of the G-2 section of the 12th Army Group, General Omar Bradley's command in the World War II European campaign, contains one chapter of particular pertinence to the work of the military intelligence officer. Chapter Three is an analysis of G-2 operations at army, corps and division level throughout the 12th Army Group command ...
Agency PageIn Memoriam
In Memoriam. General Walter Bedell Smith. 5 October 1895 - 9 August 1961.
Agency PageNumber One From Moscow
Number One From Moscow, David Kahn. At the trial in 1957 of Colonel Rudolf Abel for espionage on behalf of the Soviet Union, one of the exhibits in evidence was a bit of microfilm carrying ten columns, 21 rows, of five-figure groups. This cipher message, found inside a hollow nickel in 1953 and turned over to the FBI, had proved impregnable to solution until its key was made available four years later by the defection of Reino Hayhanen, Abel's erstwhile assistant, to whom the message had been addressed.2 The inability of government cryptanalysts to read it was no reflection upon their competence, for the cryptographic system used in the message was the finest and most advanced mnemonic cipher ever made public. Although not theoretically insoluble, it is effectually unbreakable without prior knowledge of the system and on the basis of a single message...
Agency PageCoercive Persuasion by Edgar H. Schein. Book Review by Anonymous
Book Review of Coercive Persuasion by Edgar H. Schein, by Anonymous. Several years ago a group of American scientist--psychologists, psychiatrists and neurophysiologists--who were trying to develop an understanding of the Russian and Chinese methods of obtaining false confessions, compliant behavior, and the apparent conversion of beliefs interviewed a veteran member of the State Security apparatus of an Eastern European nation. They asked him what, in his opinion, had been the greatest contribution of the Russians to the techniques for handling political prisoners...
Agency PageBook review of European Resistance Movements 1939-1945
Book review of European Resistance Movements 1939-1945. The First International Conference of which this is the record was held in Belgium in September 1958. The papers presented include a keynote address reviewing the broad course of the Resistance (and quite cutting in its resentful depreciation of American help) and several studies exploring each of five of its particular aspects--resistance in Germany and Italy, the psychological war, Jewish resistance, the maquis and other guerrillas, and the role of the Allies...