A Crucial Estimate Relived. By Sherman Kent.
In the spring of 1964, Studies in Intelligence published Kent's ruminations about why the Board of National Estimates missed the Soviet deployment of offensive missiles in Cuba. The article, originally classified Secret, reveals much about the general limitations of intelligence analysis as a process, as well as why it went wrong in the fall of 1962....
Intelligence for Defense Planning. By W. E. Seidel. The story of intelligence support for defense planning at the national level in the current Administration offers a good case study in the relationship between national intelligence and the consumer, or at least one of its most important consumers. Although the history of long-range estimating and quantified projections has been a long and thorny one, the requirements of the new defense planners are perhaps unique in their degree of articulation, a refinement which stems from the needs of the systematic analysis techniques used in current planning. This review of the case to date proceeds from the bias that the consumer is why we are in business...
Intelligence for Economic Defense. by Sherman R. Abrahamson. The desirability of autarky, economic self-sufficiency, is a recurrent theme in the literature on the theory of Communism. That it continues to be a cherished goal of the Communist countries might seem questionable because the Bloc has increased rather than decreased its imports from outside. A closer look at the trade information, however, reveals that much of the increased importation is of high-quality, latest-design machinery and equipment. Such imports are consonant with autarky because they bring savings in costly research and development effort. These savings, invested in the domestic manufacture of such equipment, accelerate Bloc economic growth and so hasten the day when even this kind of import is both unnecessary and disadvantageous...
Meeting with Agents. By A. A. Konovalov and V. S. Sokolov. The conditions under which intelligence work has to be carried out in capitalist countries change periodically for better or worse, and in the last few years these changes have led to a considerable deterioration in the situation. Since last spring, with the wrecking of the summit conference by the Americans and a number of other important international political events, the relations between our country and the USA and NATO countries have deteriorated considerably and still remain strained...
Styles and Stereotypes in Intelligence Studies. Droning monotony, fancy jargon, and Victorian stuffiness in government prose, long the butt of an excessive amount of satire, have again become a favorite target of journalists. A top official of the Department of State acknowledged the vulnerability in a recent speech before a group of career officers in his agency. Pointing out his concern over the abstruse style used in the reports which he received, he made a plea for the revival of the straightforward "declarative sentence" and for direct expression of ideas....
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