On Estimating Reactions, John Whitman. To estimate Communist reactions to a U.S. course of action involving ...
These estimates form a quite distinct category. They originate in a unique way; they pose special problems of organization; their coordination with the representatives of the USIB member agencies is exceptionally difficult; and final USIB approval almost always requires more than one meeting, often more than two. Herein reside the frustrations, to which I shall devote the greater part of what follows. The fascination lies in the assurance that the drafter is involved in major and immediate decisions of U.S. policy. No other estimates can generate in his breast quite such a sharp sense of relevance to action. ...
Scientific Estimating, Wayne G. Jackson. Those of us in the estimating business have a troublesome time with the problem of incorporating scientific or technical contributions into a finished estimate. To make the point, a hypothetical case relating to missiles and nuclear warheads is discussed below, but the example might as well be any complicated piece of military hardware or other technical subject. ...
For a Board of Definitions, George Berkeley. If a nuclear physicist were to write that "A few whatchamacallits created a new thingamajig when they bounced off a slew of whoosies," we might suggest that his terminology needed honing. Yet day in and day out we let reporters of political events (me included) get away with talking about "democracy," "nationalism," "insurgency," "dictatorship," "totalitarianism," "the right," "the left," "the slightly left of center," "probability," "possibility," and many other concepts that lack any universally accepted definitions. ...
Geo-Time and Intelligence, Chronomaniac.
" ... It often seems that in today's conditions both government and public are too often the captives of the spot-news report, the daily headline, the minute-to-minute news bulletin ..."1
The concept of geo-time, briefly sketched below together with some of its possible repercussions on intelligence, was stimulated partially by the writer's recent browsing in the literature of geopolitics. (That subject, after being discredited by pseudo-scientific treatment at the hands of the Nazis and others, may be in for some rethinking and rehabilitation: a recent article in the Department of State Bulletin by the Department's Geographer appears to take a much saner approach to it.) Other stimuli have been the writer's experience as a former analyst and part-time night duty officer and the increasingly manifest desire on the part of intelligence consumers for what amounts to "instant analysis" -- in quantity and depth. ...
B-29s Against Coke Ovens, A. R. Northridge. The operations of an air intelligence section may often, even in an active theater of war, be too routine and colorless to offer much amusement or instruction to another generation. I recount below, however, one episode from my experience as intelligence officer for Major General Claire Chennault which is not without color and not uninstructive. If the story seems biased against the Washington apparatus, that is the bias of the man on the spot in contact with the job. ...
Memoranda for the President: Japanese Feelers. The last two volumes of the OSS Reports to the White House preserved among General Donovan's papers1 include records of several different Japanese approaches in 1945 to the Vatican and to OSS Lisbon, Bern, and Wiesbaden seeking a way to end the war. These peace feelers were generally the product of local initiative and had at most only a tacit approval from official Tokyo, where government quarreling over the question of capitulation was growing more and more desperate as the year advanced. They did not lead in any way to the eventual Japanese notes sent through standard diplomatic channels on 10 and 14 August, but they may have helped define for both sides the conditions therein drawn which made "unconditional" surrender a practical possibility. ...
The Okhrana's Female Agents: Part II: Indigenous Recruits, Rita T. Kronenbitter. From the early stages of its existence the Okhrana adhered to a firm policy of strictly segregating its truly clandestine services. It divided agents into two categories, "external" and "internal," meaning roughly overt and covert respectively. The external agents were investigators. They did open and clandestine surveillance and a variety of detective work, including cooperation with other government security agencies at home and abroad. Whether known to the public as Okhrana employees or not, they were officially recognized within the government and paid overtly by it. The internal service, in contrast, was essentially a system of penetrations and thus by necessity completely secret. Its personnel were unknown not only to the public and other government agencies but for the most part to Okhrana officers themselves. The identity of its agents was masked even in the operational files recording their activities. Each was known personally only to his case officer and, usually, the chief of the unit he worked for; agents did not know of one another's existence. ...
Cranks. Nuts. and Screwball, David R. McLean. "I have always had adequate sex that no one appreciated. I need a better grade of iron to eat, and so do the astronauts." (Excerpt from a July 1964 letter to the Director of Central Intelligence.) ...
Strangers on a Bridge by James B. Donovan. (New York: Atheneum. 1964.432 pp. $6.95.
In paperback: Popular Library. 1965. $.95.)
In reading Strangers on a Bridge my thoughts go back to the drama which was played out in U.S. government offices preceding and during the exchange of Rudolf Abel for Francis Powers. All of this that went on behind the scenes of Jim Donovan's own drama unknown to him held a particular excitement for the participants. ...
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