Guns or Butter Problems of the Cold War, George Ecklund. When a Roman commander in 50 B.C. took the men and materials to throw up a fortress wall or build a new catapult, no one balanced this against civilian use of the resources. Defense was paramount. But no organization man in Washington or Moscow today would think of ordering a strategic weapon system without inquiring, among other things, into its impact on the economy. In this nuclear age both weapons and organization have become so complex, even in peacetime, that men must now study carefully the economic result of every major armaments decision. The questions asked may range from the industrial implications, here and in the USSR, of disarmament proposals on the one hand to the effects for the Russian consumer if Moscow matches a Washington decision to install an expensive antimissile system on the other. This article will explore the contribution of economic analysis in studying the impact of alternative military programs and will point out some of the intelligence problems involved in doing it on the USSR. ...
Yesterday's Weapons Tomorrow, Dwayne Anderson. The great emphasis that U.S. intelligence publications place on advanced weapons, in accordance with their strategic significance, may leave the casual reader with the impression that the Soviet military machine is made up of ICBM and ABM forces backed by a ponderous but ineffective mishmash of traditional components armed with elderly weapons. His familiarity with Soviet military sites may include Tyuratam and Sary Shagan but probably little else. He knows the Soviets still have some tube artillery, bombs, and torpedoes but believes these will soon be in museums alongside crossbow exhibits. ...
The Hotel in Operations, James J. Lagrone. Hotels have been used for years by case officers for meetings and other purposes, but the recent world-wide proliferation of larger and more modern hotels, often used by the local governments for official meetings and state visitors, has increased operational interest in them. If a case officer knows the basic systems and operating procedures of a hotel he is working in or against, he is more likely to be able to do the job without attracting attention. Although a hotel staff is rarely looking for intelligence activities as such, it is constantly on the lookout for bad credit risks, thieves, sexual deviates, organized prostitution, and any activities that may disturb the guests or damage the hotel physically. In watching for such things, an alert employee can easily trip up a case officer who through carelessness or ignorance attracts undue attention. ...
The Intelligence Role in Counterinsurgency, Walter Steinmeyer. Experience during the past decade in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Indochina, the Congo, and other such hot spots has been variegated enough to provide some ground for generalizing about the role an intelligence agency should play in the U.S. effort to combat "wars. of national liberation." This is the field in which U.S. security is for some time to come, under conditions of nuclear stalemate, most likely to be challenged, as the Soviet Union, Red China, and Cuba exploit for their own purposes dissension, turmoil, and impatience for reform in Latin America, Africa, the Near East, and Southeast Asia. No set of rules can be universally applicable to all the diverse situations that now exist and will arise, but an outline of the part a civilian clandestine service should take in helping meet these challenges can at least serve as point of departure in preparing to confront a particular one of them. To suggest such an outline is the purpose of this article. ...
Pearl Harbor: Estimating Then and Now, A. R. Northridge. On Sunday, 7 December 1941, submarines and aircraft from a Japanese fleet whose presence was totally unsuspected by our defense establishment attacked American military installations and naval vessels in the Hawaiian Islands. Achieving complete surprise, the attack was a great success. It crippled our retaliatory powers for more than a year, while the enemy escaped all but unscathed. ...
Intelligence Story in Three Parts, Contributed by Edward M. Zivich. Hon. E. M. Stanton, Secretary of War:
I would respectfully call your attention to the inclosed extract, published in the Washington Morning Chronicle of April 17, 1863 with the correspondence of the medical director of this army in regard to same. Already all of the arithmeticians in the army have figured up the strength of sick and well, as shown in this published extract, as belonging to this army. Its complete organization is given, and in the case of two corps the number of regiments. The chief of my secret service department would have willingly paid $1,000 for such information in regard to the enemy at the commencement of his operations and even now would give that sum for it to verify the statements which he has been at great labor and trouble to collect and systemize. ...
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