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REPORT ON A STUDY OF INTELLIGENCE JUDGMENTS PRECEDING SIGNIFICANT HISTORICAL FAILURES: THE HAZARDS OF SINGLE-OUTCOME FORECASTING

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP86B00269R001100100010-7
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
50
Document Creation Date: 
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 3, 2002
Sequence Number: 
10
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
December 16, 1983
Content Type: 
MF
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP86B00269R001100100010-7.pdf2.32 MB
Body: 

Approved For Release 2006/01 /$ M I-RDP86B00269R001100100010-7
NIC 9079-83/1
16 December 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Report on a Study of Intelligence Judgments
Preceding Significant Historical Failures:
The Hazards of Single-Outcome Forecasting
1. Submitted herewith is the subject report, responding to
your request.
2. In this report we have attempted to determine the