Chapter 1: The Investment Roadmap

Strategic Investment Plan for Intelligence Community Analysis

This Strategic Investment Plan for Intelligence Community Analysis (SIP), for the first time, establishes common priorities and identifies future requirements for the 11 agencies of the National Intelligence Production Board (NIPB).  The NIPB, chaired by the Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production (ADCI/AP), completed the inaugural SIP after a comprehensive assessment of IC analytic capabilities.

  • The previous assessment told us where we  were.  It examined the various missions and  consumers they serve; assessed individual and collective approaches to technology; outlined analytic efforts to engage collectors on requirements, evaluation, and procurement issues; surveyed various policies to build needed skills and expertise; and documented our growing, though uneven, interaction with outside experts.

  • The SIP tells us where we are going.  The NIPB used previous assessments to launch a collaborative resource-planning effort that identified six priority areas for corporate investment, known as "pillars."  The six pillars, which are addressed in chapters 2 through 7, are:  (1) investing in people, (2) technology, (3) establishing substantive priorities, (4) rationalizing customer support, (5) interaction with collectors, and (6) engagement with outside experts.    

  • Collaboration will get us there.  In working groups and off-sites over the past year, the NIPB prioritized numerous issues  within the pillars; shared data on both current levels of investment and future needs; identified six "Band A" priorities— top initiatives for investment over the next ten years:  training, interoperable databases, collaborative electronic environment, analytic/collection priorities, outside expertise, and open source strategies.  Another five important initiatives are classified as "Band B" priorities.  The NIPB then established a permanent interagency Strategic Investment Committee to begin institutionalizing this collaborative process and building on the analytic community’s inaugural effort.  The  NIPB is committed to a process that will  identify offsets—activities we can stop doing—as an essential part of the effort to  meet our investment goals.  

This inaugural SIP is modest in the issues it takes on but is encouraging in the ground it breaks on collaboration.  The NIPB is eager to build on this, but recognizes that the support of the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI), the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence for Community Management (DDCI/CM), the Program Managers of the National Foreign Intelligence Program (NFIP), and the Congress is vital to long-term success.


Why a Strategic Investment Plan?  

Over the next decade, the challenges that confront Intelligence Community analysts will continue to outpace the resources available to meet them.  The demand for intelligence will expand as the United States faces new challenges and opportunities in a fast-changing world.  And as technology increases our access to information, the amount of data that must be collected, processed, analyzed, and conveyed to consumers will expand proportionately. 

The level of investment in intelligence analysis declined through the 1990s, and is expected to decline in real terms over the next five years as personnel costs—the largest component of analysis spending—rise faster than inflation. Without significantly increased investment, Intelligence Community analysis risks falling behind the quickening pace of global events, the increase in available information, and the demand of collectors for guidance on priorities—increasing the risk of national security surprises or intelligence failures.

This Strategic Investment Plan for Intelligence Community Analysis provides a  collaborative process to meet this challenge across the IC.  The six pillars that are described in the following chapters address the central components of analysis—people, technology, outside expertise, the critical relationships with customers and collectors, and, finally, the role of analysis to provide the basis for defining overall national security priorities and the application of those priorities for collection and analysis capabilities.  Each of these chapters, and the remainder of this introductory chapter, describes the highest priority initiatives for intelligence community analysis to meet future challenges.  The end of this chapter will set forth the process through which NIPB agencies will work together to address the priority initiatives.

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Establishing Investment Priorities  

From the "as is" data presented in the earlier assessment and the vision of the environment  in which the analytic community will operate in the future (the "to be" capabilities, or desired endstates), the NIPB members identified gaps to be filled to address the challenges ahead. They have agreed on 11 critical priorities for analytic investment, with six top "Band A" priorities.  They are:

  • Analytic training, increasingly in interagency programs, to build an expert work  force, meet critical mission needs, and strengthen analytic tradecraft.  In addition to more funding, improving training will also require additional billets to allow analysts to be away from their desks for training.  The goal is to have a minimum of ten percent of the current work force billets set aside for career development -- needed to recapitalize analytic expertise and develop skills to cover new and emerging issues.  

  • Accessible and/or interoperable databases  to improve the ability of analysts to  access, share, and manipulate data.  NFIP investments on databases are growing. However, databases across the analytic community are not fully interoperable -- needed to enhance collaboration and leverage the expertise across the IC. 

  • A collaborative environment to allow analysts to share knowledge and expert ise, and link them to collectors,  customers, and outside experts.  The NFIP is investing heavily in collaboration.  The majority of this cost, however, is for hardware, rather than the tools that enable collaboration -- needed to ensure an interoperable environment, in which data are accessible across the analytic community and, as appropriate, to our customers and partners.

  •  An agile framework to prioritize analysis and collection. The development of a more agile, national-level intelligence priorities system is essential to provide for coherent allocation of analytic and collection resources to address standing priorities, as well as surge requirements for crisis support -- needed to allocate analytic resources to meet the highest priority requirements of customers in a dynamic and flexible fashion, while also providing a streamlined,  comprehensive set of requirements for collectors.  

  • Outside expertise to broaden our knowledge base and enhance analytic capabilityneeded to exploit the knowledge and expertise of academicians, business executives, annuitants, former IC analysts, and military reserves and to leverage our analytic foundation.  

  • Effective strategies to exploit the growing and increasingly important open source  environment -- needed to take advantage of  the wealth of open source information,  which is often critical to our analyses, but which must be mined and sorted to be used effectively by analysts.  

Another five areas are also important, and the NIPB has classified them as "Band B" priorities:

  • Skills management to track, build, and sustain appropriate analytic skills now and in the future -- needed to determine manpower levels for the future, and enable managers to allocate existing resources appropriately, particularly in times of crisis or surge.  

  • Staffing strategies to attract and retain the most talented employees and to enhance work force agility and diversity -- needed to compete with job opportunities outside the government.  

  • Analytic tools to help manage information, reveal connections, facilitate analytic insights, streamline search, and automatically populate databases.  NFIP investments in analytic tools—primarily for agency-specific uses—are growing rapidly.  However, additional funds, targeted for developing common tools, are necessary for the analytic community to achieve its goals -- needed to provide the most effective technical support, ensuring systems interoperability and reducing unnecessary duplication of tools development.  

  • Digital production to capture, store, and recover information for customers and other analysts.  The NFIP in the next couple of years is making a sizable investment in digital production.  This investment introduces digital production technology to agencies, but additional resources are needed for community-wide production -- needed to enhance collaborative production as well as to allow tailoring of information for specific customer requirements.

  • Evaluation methodologies and tools to assess analytic and collection performance to reveal critical gaps, satisfy customer needs, and improve collection and analytic posture -- needed to ensure that the analytic community is meeting mission requirements and to help us determine our critical needs as well as areas in which we can afford to risk manage our production.

The NIPB members analyzed current cross-programmatic expenditures in the critical priorities.  They have determined that additional resources are required in these priority areas to realize the NIPB’s goals for implementing the DCI’s Strategic Intent.

The NIPB members recognize that some of the resources for strategic investment must result from efficiencies and trade-offs gained through a common, corporate approach in these critical areas.  Other resources to fund these capabilities will come from partnerships with other elements of the larger Intelligence Community—the Intelligence Community Chief Information Officer (IC CIO), for example, or training components.  However, the analytic community cannot succeed in this investment strategy if it requires funding solely from reallocation of available resources.  Having identified these capabilities as critical, some of the required resources must come from other parts of the IC or from outside of the NFIP.

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Identifying Needed Actions

Once the NIPB members established the investment priorities, they identified specific implementing actions to achieve the capabilities described above.  The Strategic Investment Plan describes these actions and outlines a phased approach, identifies responsible organizations to lead specific efforts or serve as executive agents, and presents  milestone years.

The strategies and implementing actions of this plan cover the Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) and must be linked to the Intelligence Community’s programmatic cycle.  This will require effective, corporate approaches to building the production portions of the NFIP programs, and a commitment by each NIPB member to continued implementation of the strategy.  Although our goals are long-term, the strategies and implementing actions will need to be adjusted as we go along.

Many of the needed links already exist.  The ADCI/AP, working with the Community Management Staff, has issued broad direction that reflects the investment priorities of the SIP. This guidance provides the basis for review of the NFIP programs’ submissions to the DCI, the identification of program review issues, and final decisions on the budget leading up to its submission to the President and thence to Congress.

The NIPB has established a permanent interagency strategic investment committee, under the chairmanship of the ADCI/AP,  that will meet periodically to review agreed-upon goals, track individual agency initiatives in support of them, identify interagency proposals for ADCI/AP budgetary assistance, highlight new issues in need of investment, and identify  offsets or business areas for elimination.   

  • The committee will review the proposed production programs for each fiscal year and provide recommendations to the ADCI/AP on gaps and shortfalls, or areas where the Community should leverage the activities of one program to permit  reduction of similar activities by other members of the Community.   

  • The NIPB principals have agreed to meet at least once a year to revalidate the overarching SIP strategy, the desired capabilities for the FYDP, and the implementing actions to achieve these capabilities.


The Resource Roadmap  

While all 11 investment areas are critical and need to be funded over the FYDP, the NIPB believes six areas are of paramount concern— training; accessible/interoperable databases; collaborative environment; analytic/collection priorities; outside expertise; and, open-source strategy.  All 11 priority areas and implementing actions are shown in the accompanying table, delineated by critical (Band A) and important (Band B) categories, along with the profile of any currently-programmed NFIP dollars and manpower.  The responsible organization or organizations, areas of dependency, and the fiscal year in which the effort will begin and end are also identified.  Based upon the  expected cost of each investment area across the FYDP and the amounts already programmed by the NIPB members in their NFIP program, we have calculated an estimated overguidance amount, to be obtained either through reallocation across the NFIP, an increased topline, or efficiencies achieved by pursuing a corporate approach.

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  > Band A Priorities:  Training

To build an expert work force, meet critical mission needs, and strengthen analytic tradecraft, regional and technical expertise, collection mastery, intellectual rigor, communications skills, and knowledge of consumers’ needs.

  • Ensure funding for, access to, quality training/education (begin in FY02)
  • Build an analytic training consortium:  National Intelligence Academy  (begin in FY01)     
    • Establish IC core curriculum, e.g., analytic tradecraft, orientation to collection systems, production  management, information management, etc.    
    • Create virtual IC university using distance learning to supplement on-site training.
  • Prepare/post catalog of training courses across IC 
  • Training billets—ensure a minimum number identified, equal to ten percent of the   current (FY00) work force  (by FY07)  
  • Increase funding for language training  (begin in FY02)  
  • Identify centers of excellence and open these programs to IC, where appropriate (by FY01)  

Responsible Organizations: NIPB agencies
Dependencies: IC Training Offices
Implementation year: FY01-07   

IC currently does not have bench strength sufficient to allow analysts to take needed training and career development courses.  Training efforts are stovepiped and often duplicative across the IC.

Investment in this area will provide adequate training for analysts, reduce unnecessary duplication, enhance analytic skills, increase analytic understanding of the IC, and add billets to the analytic workforce to allow more analysts to participate in training without reducing the operations of production organizations.

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 > Band A Priorities:  Accessible and/or Interoperable Databases

Collaboration on development of interoperable databases to improve the ability of analysts to access, share, and manipulate data at any time, from any location.

  • Establish functional standards for interoperability in developing new databases  (begin FY01)
  • Develop and deploy new tools/software to facilitate access to heterogeneous and legacy data 
  • Migrate and/or redesign or transition existing databases to a new data layer 
  • Support Community fora related to interoperability and access to databases (begin in FY01)  
  • Establish a baseline inventory of databases critical for analysts to access and share by November 2000; identify pilots to improve sharing of data by October 2000  (by FY01)
  • Establish IC-wide metadata standards, organize repository, and provide updating process and tools to automate metadata tagging  
  • Foster the development of processing techniques that integrate data from different collection systems.  (by FY03)  

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members  
Dependencies: IC CIO, DIA  
Implementation year: FY01-07  

Databases are not currently fully interoperable nor accessible across the IC.  To ensure the ability to fully collaborate, IC analysts must be able to access databases across a variety of security domains. As we move to a true virtual environment, database accessibility will also be necessary for customers. 

Investment in this area will provide the essential structure to allow database interoperability across the IC.

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  > Band A Priorities:  Collaborative Environment

A virtual work environment that connects desktops across the IC, enabled by collaborative tools, policies, and a security framework to  allow analysts to share knowledge and expertise and link them to collectors, consumers, allies, and outside experts.

  • Establish an IC collaboration center under an executive agent, with contract and IC training organization  staffing, to lay out a roadmap to move from pilots to enterprise and IC-wide deployment (begin FY01)  
    • Focus on culture and business process issues  
    • Coordinate with IC CIO on security and technical issues 
    • Identify metrics and best practices and Integrate with similar activities 
  • Establish an interoperability roadmap/certification program (by FY02)  
  • Fund and study additional collaboration pilots through FY03, with a view to migrating toward common  IC services that will allow interoperability (by FY03)  
  • Deploy interoperable collaborative environment across the NIPB (by FY03)  

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members
Dependencies: IC CIO, CIA, NSA
Implementation year: FY01-07

The IC currently has multiple collaborative tools under development.  It is essential that the  Community ensure the tools are interoperable, even if a single suite of tools is not mandated  across the IC. Exchange of information about best practices is critical.

Investment in this area will leverage the efforts of all organizations and enhance tools for  analysts’ use. 

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 > Band A Priorities:  Priorities

National-level framework and processes to prioritize intelligence needs to support analysis and collection, help make efficient tradeoffs, and manage future acquisitions.

  • Develop framework and processes to prioritize intelligence needs to drive allocation of analysis and  collection resources. (by FY01)  
  • Develop software to allow dynamic updating of priorities (by FY01)  
  • Work with existing agencies, and IC collection committees/mechanisms, and ADCI/C to provide: 
    • IC-recognized, integrated requirements to collectors 
    • Substantive guidance to collection community during surge situations 
    • Future requirements to Mission Requirements Board  
  • Oversee and support pre-acquisition efforts in developing CICMP and support single-INT  requirements systems (begin FY01)  

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, ADCI/C, NIPB members, IC committees
Dependencies: IC CIO, DIA
Implementation year: FY01-07

The multiple frameworks, guidance documents and sets of analyst and customer needs do not allow the IC to effectively manage either its analytic or its collection resources.

Investment in this area will provide a dynamic, flexible framework to adjust priorities that may require changes in the allocation of analytic and collection resources. 

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 > Band A Priorities:  Outside Expertise

Leverage outside expertise and provide a communications infrastructure to broaden knowledge base and recapture lost expertise.

  • Identify level of outside expertise available/needed (begin FY01)
  • Establish an IC reserve force composed of annuitants and other former employees   
    • Develop Community-wide template for agencies to incorporate in transition programs to allow departing analysts to self-select for possible inclusion in the reserve 
    • Develop contract mechanisms and work with Congress to create legal remedies to hiring or temporary employment on limited contracts 
    • Develop strategy for alerting retirees to the reserve, including an approach that would allow individuals to retain appropriate security clearances 
  • Leverage Military Reserves in a more systematic fashion, including their use to benefit non-DoD intelligence  organizations (by FY02)  
  • Expand and/or enhance existing partnerships with outside experts through agency programs already underway  and through cross-Community efforts  
    • Make efforts transparent to Community, using push technology and other techniques to communicate and   involve other agencies 
    • Create a web-based on-line clearinghouse for seminars and projects using outside experts (apply push technology) 
    • Review/change Community policies, security procedures, and legislation to make it easier to establish continuing relationships with outside experts and communicate actively through e-mail and Internet
  • Initiate requirements study, in cooperation with IC CIO, that will smooth communications with external partners. Develop, as appropriate, an Internet-based interface to connect the outside experts/ reserves  

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members
Dependencies: Human Resources organizations
Implementation year: FY01

While the IC has recognized the need to use outside expertise to provide analysis not available within the IC, it has not ensured that mechanisms are in place to facilitate this, particularly to enable the IC to take advantage of the expertise of former employees.

Investment in this area will ensure the legal and security mechanisms are in place, provide a clearing-house of individual organizations’ efforts, and allow connectivity with partners outside the IC. 

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  > Band A Priorities:  Open Source Strategy

To tap key sources (FBIS, commercially-available products/data) and embrace and exploit emerging Information Environment.  

  • Develop and open source strategy (begin FY01)  
  • Develop a funding approach to present to IC leaders (begin FY01)  
  • Consider alternatives to current IC open source organization  
  • Establish trusted agents as part of an open source strategy  
  • Deploy Internet to the analyst desktop

Responsible organizations: NIPB members  
Dependencies: IC CIO, Security Offices  
Implementation Year: FY01

The IC investment in open source, particularly FBIS, has declined radically in recent years.

Investment in this area will provide a cogent, corporate approach to ameliorating this problem, providing the most effective approach to ensure access to open source materials by our analysts.

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  > Band B Priorities:  Skills Management

Skills management, tracking, and planning to build expertise; ensure appropriate skills mix; and meet mission requirements.  

  • Establish analytic skills database to track/map expertise across the Community (agency maintained,  but interoperable, systems—based on Community-coordinated template  (by FY01)
  • Perform IC-wide needs assessment to determine appropriate end strength (by FY02)

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members
Dependencies: Human Resources organizations
Implementation year  FY01

There is widespread agreement that the skills mix of the future analytic work force will be different than it is today, but no methodology has been set up to determine the appropriate size and  needed skills for the new work force. 

Investment in this area will leverage the work of the individual agencies and provide an IC-wide capability to measure skills and assess the future requirements for analytic end strength and skill mix. 

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 > Band B Priorities:  Staffing Strategies

Innovative recruitment, hiring, and staffing strategies to build expertise and effectively manage a diverse work force.  

  •  Ensure adequate funding to be able to hire short-term employees under existing authorities  (resources for administration and salary/incentives (by FY02)  
  • Develop personnel and security policies and procedures to allow some employees to obtain or retain  clearances so that it is easier to hire limited appointment personnel for special short-term projects and/or recall former employees for crisis, surge, or other support. (by FY02)  
  • Review/modify recruitment and personnel policies to make it easier to hire and accommodate a mix  of long-term careerists, short-term/limited appointment employees, and contractors and consultants.
  • Adjust policies to allow for movement between government and industry on a regular basis
  • Establish expertise building rotational assignments and partnerships with academia/private sector
  • Monitor progress on diversity

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members, Community Management Staff
Dependencies: Human Resources organizations
Implementation year: FY01  

We cannot expect that newly hired analysts will remain with the government for a 30 year career; rather, we should expect that they will move in and out of government over the course of their career.

Investment in this area provides the needed flexibility in hiring and security policies to facilitate a tiered work force.  

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  > Band B Priorities:  Analytic Tools

An automated analytic workflow process that relies on the broad availability of advanced analytic tools to help manage information, reveal connections, facilitate analytic insights, streamline search, and automatically populate databases.

  • IC collaboration center as central clearinghouse for tool development and deployment lessons learned to ensure interoperability; commonality where appropriate; and accessibility  across the NIPB  (by FY01)
    • Identify components of a basic analytic tool box (mapping, timelines) 
    • Develop seal of approval program to encourage use of standards-based development
  • Identify executive agents for key technology efforts (by FY01)  
  • Tools to handle information volume (for individual agencies)  
  • Deploy interoperable tools within programs  (by FY05)  
  • Focus IC’s R&D strategy on supporting analytic tool requirements, providing study on how  commercial sector is dealing with analogous problems (by FY01)  
  • Conduct study of level of effort required for analytic tools over the FYDP to be incorporated in  FY03 program  (begin by FY01)  

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members
Dependencies: National Intelligence Council (NIC), IC CIO, DIA, CIA
Implementation year: FY01   

Investment in this area will place analysts in the middle of tool development and ensure that whatever tools are developed are interoperable.

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  > Band B Priorities:  Digital Production

Efforts and electronic tracking and production systems to capture and make available intelligence "products" that can be recovered and reused by customers and other analysts (knowledge warehouses).  

  • Deploy interoperable digital production technology across NIPB  (by FY03)  
    • NIPB transition to a digital production best business practice (by FY05)  
    • Support IC CIO in establishing Community data standards
  • Establish pilot digital production efforts, with emphasis on compatibility and interoperability across the  Community (by FY01)
    • Use NIC as pilot to transform business processes through digital production, applying agency digital   production tools to Community publications.  Share best practices/ lessons learned 
    • Pilot digital production technology and tools to agency offices that produce daily publications,   facilitating IC participation in the production process
  • Support Community efforts to make finished intelligence and database information more accessible   to facilitate digital production, e.g., Community efforts to better organize information on the classified  web  (by FY01)  

Responsible Organizations: ADCI/AP, NIPB members
Dependencies: NIC, IC CIO, DIA, CIA
Implementation year: FY01

Web-based, digital production is beginning to be used across the IC, particularly in the Defense  Intelligence community. Full deployment of this capability not only will require the hardware, but a  change in business practice.

Investment in this area will allow IC-wide testing of DoD and other tools, as well as developing ways of adapting our business processes to the future production environment.

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  > Band B Priorities:  Evaluation

Better and more consistent methods for evaluating analytic and collection performance to reveal critical gaps, satisfy customer needs and improve our collection and analytic posture.

  • Support and advance use of existing agency collection evaluation methodologies across NIPB (By FY 01)  
  • Product Annual Report on State of Health of the Intelligence Analytic Community, building on  recent ADCI/AP and ADCI/C efforts (in-depth evaluation, issue-based)  
  • Budget for blue ribbon panels of inside/outside experts to prepare periodic "lessons learned" on event-driven issues/ topics of critical concern
  • Pursue electronic audit trails and other electronic "survey" measures to encourage customer  feedback/usage as we move forward with digital production (by FY01)  
    •  Work with commercial world to understand what mechanisms web-based businesses use to measure customer satisfaction
    • Study possible methodological, procedural, legal, and security issues connected with use of   audit trail data
  • Reinvigorate Community coordination and rationalize production of daily publications across the  NIPB (by FY01)  
  • Explore commercial and government methods and mechanisms that could be adapted to evaluate  analytic and collection performance  (by FY01)  

Responsible Organizations: NIPB members
Implementation year: FY01

Investment in this area will allow better allocation of analytic resources to address customer requirements, as well as reduce unnecessary duplication of production activity.  It will enable managers to more accurately determine how to "risk manage" scarce resources.

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Posted: Apr 24, 2007 09:37 AM
Last Updated: Jan 03, 2012 12:44 PM