FOIA
THE ITALIAN POLITICAL SITUATION
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
0000635858
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
3
Document Creation Date:
June 24, 2015
Document Release Date:
June 29, 2011
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
F-2011-01174
Publication Date:
October 11, 1977
File:
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 DOC_0000635858.pdf | 177.34 KB |
Body:
SAto
SUBJECT: The Italian Political Situation
11 October 1977
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE:
06-14-2011
The recent postponement of a potentially divisive round
of local elections from November until next spring means that
dramatic public clashes are not likely to disturb the Italian
political scene in the near future. Intense behind-the-scenes
maneuvering will continue, however. The Communists will be
trying to lay the institutional and psychological basis for
their eventual entry into the- government, while the governing
Christian Democrats will be searching for ways to escape their
deepening dependence on Communist cooperation.
Italian party leaders have just come through a three year
period during which they have had to rapidly adjust to sudden
and unexpected changes in the political, equation. The first
shock came in 1974, when a national referendum produced a
landslide victory for legalized divorce, suggesting that the
influence of the Church-oriented Christian Democrats was
threatened by secular trends in Italian society. Confirmation
of that impression came a year later when the Communists sur-
prised themselves and their rivals by scoring unprecedented
gains in nationwide regional and local elections.
The year between the local elections and the 1976 parlia-
mentary contest was marked by uncertairty about whether Italian
voters would trust the Communists with a.7~ much power at national
level. When the Communists won even more votes in 1976--their
34.4 percent was just 4 points behind the Christian Democrats--
party leaders were forced for the first time to weigh the prac-
tical consequences of the Communists' growing support. For the
Christian Democrats, the Communist Party's gains--and the grow-.
ing gulf between themselves and their former Socialist allies--
meant they could no longer count on a non-Communist majority in
parliament. In order to muster a majority on their own, the
Christian Democrats were forced to seek communist abstention in
the legislature.
1W M 17261-77
The Communists agreed and Andreotti?s Christian Democratic
minority government is now three months into its second year.
The Communists had received some significant concessions for
their cooperation, but they continued to press during Andreotti?s
first year for an additional quid pro quo in the form of a
larger and more visible role in the pol.icymaking process. The
Christian Democrats resisted for months, but finally had to
meet the Communists halfway last summer by including them in
formal interparty negotiations on key aspects of the govern-
ment-Is program.
Much of the political controversy in the coming months will
center on the Christian Democrats' varying interpretations of
the program agreement. Not only do they disagree on how to
implement some of the more vague proposals in the accord; they
are also at odds over the larger political implications of the
agreement. While the Communists portray it as an historic
first step toward government membership, the Christian Democrats
characterize it as a temporary arrangement to deal with economic
and social emergencies.
Despite these differences, both parties clearly view the
program accord as a way to buy time for additional maneuvering
and to provide a measure of governmental stability, at least
for the next several months and possibly for a year or so.
None of the major partie, sees anything to gain by bringing
down the government in the near term, since there is at present
no workable alternative to the Andreotti formula.
The future of Italian politics hinges in large part on
which of the two major parties is right in betting that time
is on its side. The Communists are hoping that a continuation
of the present arrangement will enable them to demonstrate
their responsibility, neutralize much of the remaining anti-
Communist sentiment, and maneuver the Christian Democrats step
by step toward a full fledged governing partnership. For their
part, the Christian Democrats hope that involving the Communist
Party in the governing process will destroy its uniqueness
and eventually sap its strength, forcing the Communists over
time to confront their internal contradictions as a revolution-
ary party with a social democratic platform.
The game is far from over, but the Communist prognosis
seems favored over the long term by a variety of factors, among
them:
--the persistent disarray and declining fortunes of the
Christian Democrats' other possible allies, the
Socialist Party in particular;
--the likelihood that the Communists' moderate policies
are.gaining them more support in the center than they
are losing on the left;
--the likelihood that the longer the cooperation with
the Communists continues, the harder it will be for
the Christian Democrats to switch back to other ways
of governing Italy.
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