HSCICATI BRIEFING ON IRAN/IRAQ WAR AND IRANIAN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: IRAN-CONTRA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0001296184
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: June 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-1992-00896
• Publication Date: February 10, 1987

(b)(1)
(b)(3)
APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE:
22-Dec-2008
10 February 1987
OCA 87-0599
SUBJECT: HSCICATI Briefing on Iran/Iraq War and Iranian
Political Developments
1. On 10 February 1987 the House Select Committee to
Investigate Covert Arms Transactions with Iran (HSCICATI)
received a briefing on the Iran/Iraq War and Iranian political
developments. The session was held in H-405, The Capitol from
1415 to 1545 hours. There is no transcript of this briefing.
2. The following Members were present:
Lee Hamilton (Chairman) (D., IN)
Dante Fascell (D., FL)
Thomas Foley (D., WA)
Peter Rodino (D., NJ)
Jack Brooks (D., TX)
Louis Stokes (D., OH)
Edward Boland (D., MA)
Ed Jenkins (D., GA)
Richard Cheney (R., WY)
William Broomfield (R., MI)
Henry Hyde (R., IL)
Jim Courter (R., NJ)
Bill McCollum (R., FL)
Mike DeWine (R., OH)
3. Congressional staff present were:
Elaine Mielke
Steve Berry
Mike O'Neil
Tom Smeeton
John Nields
Bud Hall
K.C. Miller (Probable)
Spencer Oliver
Dave Addington
Dick Giza
George VanCleve
Neil Eggleston
Steve Ross
 5. opened the briefing with an overview of the
Iran/Iraq war and internal political/military developments in
Iran that included information on the radicals, moderates and
pramagtists currently pla in roles in Iranian political
matters. On this point, emphasized that these are not
ironclad groupings because the leading players tend to slide
from one group to another depending on the issues. He also
said that Khomeini has cancer that could cause his death
sometime during the next two years. Members' questioning
during the discussions centered on dissemination of
intelligence on Iran/Iraq, political fractionalism in Iran and
Iranian/Syrian relations with the warring Lebanese factions.
6. Mr. Cheney asked about the quality of sources
reporting on Iran. He was told that on the political side of
the ledger we feel confident that we can identify and analyze
trends. He was told that human source reporting has improved,
but that we must keep in mind that we started from a fairly
low production point. He said that the Iranian press is one
of the prime sources of information on developments in Iran.
In response to a question concerning whether the coverage of
Iran is adequate, aid that he feels confident that we
can assess trends in Iran and that we have access to power
groups, adding however that the reporting gap is in knowing
the exact relationships between the various groups.
Mr. Fascell had no questions. Mr. Hyde asked whether we rely
too much on for our insights into the
Middle East and ticu ar y into the Iran/Iraq situation. At
this point, asked whether questions on U.S. relations
with were air game" for this briefing. The Members
agree t at they consider it an appropriate question under the
framework of the resolution that established the committee.
Hyde said that the U.S. was somewhat vulnerable in t
relied on on Iran and Iraq.
said this was not so, adding a while we
we do not rely on
Hyde then mentioned a book entitle ea of
Intelligence" and asked about the quality of today's
intelli ence as opposed to that collected during the Shah's
days. said that it is difficult to compare the
periods, a ing that when the Shah was in power
There followed a discussion about the predication that
Khomeini will die within two years. Some Members recalled
that similar dire predictions were made about him during the
Carter administration and he is still here. They wanted to
know if we were using the same sources to formulate our
current assessment of Khomeini's health. There was discussion
 about the likelihood role of the Iranian army and the
Revolutionary-Guards in future political developments in
Iran. The question being which force would play the dominant
role in political developments in Iran. said that
the Revolutionary Guard will be the most inziuen 1, with the
army continuing to be tied down fighting on Iran's borders.
Mr. Foley asked which Iranian elements are sympathetic to the
Soviet Union. aid that there are no such elements
in an ideological sense and that the present regime is
basically anti-Soviet. The next question concerned possible
Soviet assets in Iran and the answer was that the Soviets do
not have significant numbers of assets in Iran.
asked whether Mr. Ghorbanifar, a key player in the Iran arms
deal, had significant/real contacts inside Iran. Barksdale
said that Ghorbanifar was in contact with key individuals in
Iran and working with certain Iranian leaders. On a related
followup question, Mr. Rodino asked whether Ghorbanifar was
given a polygraph examination-and-whether he flunked it.
Rodino also asked whether( Ghorbanifar_.s/was an Iranian
agent. In response to all of has questions, Rodino was told
that it would be more appropriate if they are addressed to
another Agency component. McCollum raised the question of the
hostages, Iran's relationship with the hostages and the
hostage-holders, and whether there is a particular group of
Iranians in contact with Hezbollah. He was told that
Hezbollah clearly has contacts with Iran but that there is no
information that Iran controls the organization, and moreover
their agendas do not always run in tandem. He added that
Iranians have funded Hezbollah_ Mr. Stokes asked how long
He was told that
some material was so during the Shah's regime and some items
that were already in the pipeline were delivered after the
noted that it- is irnnort-
Shah fell from
that
may have been involved in these deals but probably
with thej
Mr. Jenkins as e w ether
was told that they were not selling them for the United
States, that most of the arms are purchased in Europe from
arms dealers but that North Korea and China are big suppliers
of military equipment to Iran. Mr. Jenkins also asked whether
the Israelis have better sources in Iran than we have there.
sked about internal dissent in Iran and how deeply
it rear es into Iranian society.
7. During the second round of questions, Mr. Cheney asked
whether there are/were differences in the Intelligence
Community over the interpretation of events in Iran.
said that there was some disagreement over the degree of
Iranian control/influence over Hezbollah. Fascell asked when
there are analytical differences in the Intelligence
 Community, where are these resolved. There followed a
discussion about who receives the various intelligence
publications, such as the PDB, NID, etc, who determines the
distribution, what is the mechanism for comments on these
publications, whether the documents are coordinated formally,
etc. Mr. Jenkins asked whether former NSC advisor McFarland
received briefing(s) before he went to Iran. aid that
he briefed McFarland and Mr. Cave (May 1986) but that the
briefing was requested under the umbrella of a briefing on the
Soviet threat, Soviet activities in Afghanistan and the
Iran/Iraq War.
8. There was one outstanding question: How much oil and
how many arms has Iran provided to Nicaragua recentl ? The
answer to this question (attached) was prepared by and
forwarded to John Nields on 11 February 1987. There were no
other outstanding requirements.
House Affairs Branch, OCA
Attachment:
As stated