NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 16 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005065469
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00446
• Publication Date: January 16, 1982

(b)(1) (b)(3) Intelligence -~`~a~a :~~' Jaur~~~ ~9~2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE .DATE: 21-Jun-2010':  Poland: Parliament Sessi on Postponed i ~ Western Europe - Poland: Labor Support Faltering 1 ~ 2 7 f 3 ~ Spain: Change in High Command. 4 Albania: Isolationist Co urse Reaffirmed. 5 '~ 6 /~ Japan-US: Trade Minister 's Visit 7 ~ ~ Portugal: ControverszJ Ov er Constitutzona Z Changes. 8 1 January 19  POLAND: Parliament Session Postponed Postponement of the session of parliament scheduled for next Wednesday may indicate that Premier JaruzeZski is having difficulty / formulating a program. Polish efforts, meanr,~hiZe, to improve reZa- /~ bons with West European governments have encountered rough going. The first full session of the parliament since the imposition of martial law has been delayed until 25 or 26 January, when Jaruzelski presumably will make his scheduled mayor address setting forth government poli- The official Polish Army newspaper yesterday called for sweeping purges of the party and other institutions. prisoners, especially recalcitrant Solidarity activists, apparently are receiving progressively harsher treatment. where moderates and hardliners remain divided. receiving much helpful advice from the Communist Party Comment: Postponement of the parliamentary session may be a sign that the predominantly military government-- which considers its primary responsibility the main- tenance of order--is having problems devising a broad political-economic program. Jaruzelski probably is not repression. While deliberations about future policies continue, hardliners may be using concerns about maintaining con- trol to push for tougher actions. The Army newspaper's demands were harsher and more far-reaching than those proposed earlier this week by the head of the party's Central Control Commission but do not necessarily indi- cate a rift between the military and the party. The paper has long been known for its stern tone and may only be supporting an overall hardline campaign of 16 January 1982  Chancellor Schmidt, meanwhile, engineered passage of a parliamentary resolution on Poland similar to NATO's and the EC's condemnation of martial law, but only after a vitriolic and partisan debate. The coalition parties 1 defeated an alternative Christian Democratic Union - Christian Social Union resolution calling for economic sanctions against Warsaw and Moscow unless the Polish situation improves. ii 1 January 1982  ~i WESTERN EUROPE - POLAND: Labor Support Faltering Most West European trade unions quzekZy condemned the sup- pression of Solidarity, but the effort of the leading interna- tionaZ labor confederation to coordinate reaionwide trade union reactions appears to be faltering. The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions sponsored a meeting last week of the Zurich-based Soli- darity Action Committee, but it is reluctant to campaign actively for the Committee's proposed International Soli- darity Day on 30 January. The meeting highlighted the difficulties of the International Confederation in coor- ~ dinating actions on Poland with the Catholic-affiliated World Confederation of Labor. The latter helped organize the Solidarity Committee meeting but at the last minute withdrew staff suoport and did not send its ranking leadership. Comment: Since the beginning of martial law, the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions has tried to lead joint action on Poland by all non-Communist West European trade unions through its affiliates and by co- operating with the much smaller World Confederation of Labor. Close cooperation between the confederations will ' be difficult, however, because the World Confederation has ~ ' --- ' - ~- -,, r~ous approach advocated by the Vatican . Even the International Confederation's actions, more- over, are constrained by its more cautious members. Its decision not to promote Solidarity Day reflects its fear of alienating or embarrassing its most important West ~~ German affiliate, which is the financial mainstay of its European wing and one of the members least inclined to take a hard line on Poland. The reticence of the West German affiliate springs from its close ties to the ruling Social Democratic Party and its economic stake in good relations with Eastern 3 Europe. The affiliate's bank has substantial loans out- / standing in Poland, and the jobs of many members of the affiliate are dependent on trade links with the East. 1 1 January 1982  ~~%SPAIN: Change in High Command ~__.~ The replacement yesterday of the Joint Chiefs of Staff prob- ably zviZZ help the government deal more effectively with military restiveness, but other serious problems remain a threat to its survival. Prime Minister Calvo Sotelo declared the action would be helpful before Spain begins negotiations on entry into NATO. The move follows months of antigovern- ment agitation by junior and field-grade Army officers. The approac ing tria s o implicated in the coup attempt of February 1981 are bound to heighten civil-military tensions. This pros- pect also impelled the government to act. Comment: The new chiefs probably will have greater support from the ranks than did their predecessors. They probably also will enjoy a closer relationship with the King The new chiefs of staff tend to be strongly national- istic, but they are not likely to oppose plans to join NATO or to push for changes in relations with the US. The staff changes should help Calvo Sotelo weather controversy produced by the trials, but his cabinet still faces other challenges. Imminent decisions on public education and regional autonomy threaten to split his minority government and cost him the arliamentar su - port of regional parties. 4 16 January 1982  ALBANIA: Isolationist Course Reaffirmed The new Premier, AdiZ Carcani, zUesterday reaffirmed Albania's determination to pursue its isolationist policies and closed the door to anU rapprochement with the USSR. Carcani called the Warsaw Pact countries "our most ferocious enemies" and vowed to resist their "aggressive aims." Yugoslavia also came under strong attack for its handling of its ethnic Albanian population in Kosovo Province. Carcani, however, expressed a desire to im- prove relations and restated the commitment by Albania to come to Yugoslavia's defense in case of attack. The Premier, who is filling the top government post left vacant by the alleged suicide of Premier Mehmet Shehu, also announced his new cabinet. The most signif- ~,~ icant change is the removal of Fecor Shehu, nephew of the late premier, as head of the Ministry of Internal Security. Comment: Carcani's speech confirms that party leader Hoxha remains firmly in control following Shehu's death. It also refutes recent speculation, largely from Yugoslav sources, that Albania is turning to the USSR. The replacement of Shehu's nephew suggests that a rift existed between the longtime government leader and Hoxha. q+ ~__ __ ~~~ 5 anuary 1  Minister of Trade and Industry Abe's visit to Washington next week is a factfindina mission. he views the visit res s ar in see ing so u ions to bilateral economic problems. He expects "hard questions" on these issues and is especially concerned about Congressional interest in restricting imports from Japan unless Japan opens its markets to similar US goods. ~ Comment: Although Abe is a strong supporter of the `~~ US-Japan partnership and is committed to easing trade I friction, he is unlikely to announce new initiatives. In addition, Abe probably will have no definitive word on how Tokyo plans to handle future exports of pipelayers to the USSR. Aprime-ministerial hopeful, Abe will be seeking to add to his established reputation for skill- fully handling domestic political affairs by dealing with economic and trade issues. 1 January 1982  PORTUGAL: Controversy Over Constitutional Changes does no p an o ismiss Prim M Balsemao's majority aovernmen According to ~,anes, suc a move woulddelay indefinitely revisions of the Marxist-influenced constitution and would throw the country into turmoil. Eanes, however, did not rule out firing the government if its leaders misrepresented his opinions and engaged in "unfair" criticism. He also stated that he would resign and enter partisan politics if the constitutional revisions were to reduce the president to a figurehead, particularly if he were to Y lose the authority to dismiss a majority government. The governing Democratic Alliance and the opposition Socialists both agree on the need to strip the president of this power. Comment: The issue is likely to come to a head in April, when the parliament is scheduled to begin debate on the revisions. Eanes's resignation would create the turmoil that he says he wants to avoid be- cause he is easi he most popular politician in Portugal. 8 anuary 1 2