INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284786
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: September 30, 1999

TI (0b) (1)
,~I b)(3) i .
r;~-,,-axe
International Environmental Intelligence Brief
DCI Environmental Center
Contents
Climate Change: Runup to COP 5 On Track So Far
Argentine Election Could Bring Shift in Climate Change Policy
Issue 99/9 30 September 1999
GMO Controversy Heating Up in Brazil
South Africa Making Strides on Climate Change and Biodiversity
France Talking Tough on Agriculture
Page
I
International Disaster Intervention Increasingly Selective
Chile's Enforcement of Environmental Laws Lackluster
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
 Climate Change: Runup to COP 5 On
Track So Far
Environmental ministers meeting in mid-
September in Warsaw anticipated a businesslike
outcome for the fifth Conference of Parties
(COP 5) next month in Bon
Success at COP 5 will be measured by
adoption of the chair's draft text on the Kyoto
Protocol flexibility mechanisms as the basis for
negotiations in the runup to COP 6 next year,
which will decide how to implement the
mechanisms.
- Brazil and Mexico had no objection to
turning the Chair's draft into the
negotiating text to advance the process,
- The EU indicated it does not want a fight
at COP 5 concerning its demand for a cap
on trading of international emissions
permits.
- The Umbrella Group of non-EU
developed countries is proposing an
accelerated schedule of meetings and
workshops between COP 5 and COP 6 to
develop technical guidelines for operation
of the Kyoto mechanisms
China and India have no major objections because
the draft text incorporates much of the Buenos
Aires Plan of Action in which their demands for
capacity-building assistance are articulated.
Saudi Arabia raised several procedural issues
and challenged the agenda for COP 5 at a working-
The International Energy Agency will be
supporting substantive advances at COP 5 and
COP 6 with analytical support
The agency will hold an electro
virtual exercise in the spring to simulate emissions
trading among developed countries in a market
setting.
A low probability scenario to thwart a positive
outcome for COP 5 would have the Group of 77
developing countries objecting to Argentina's
possible announcement during COP 5 of a national
target for limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
China, India, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia
would regard this as a breach of G-77 solidarity
and could take steps to hold parts of the agenda
hostage as they did at COP 4 last year.
- Kazakhstan's effort to amend the Kyoto
Protocol to join the list of developed
countries with Kyoto emissions targets
also could anger G-77 countries opposed
to the Protocol.
- Support for Argentina and Kazakhstan is
weak among the EU and Umbrella
Group, and they may urge postponement
of the Argentine and Kazakhstani efforts
if China and India start obstructing the
meeting
level meeting before the ministerial,
during the ministerial meeting itself.
 Argentine Election Could Bring Shift in
Climate Change Policy
A government led by Buenos Aires Mayor de la
Rua, the opposition alliance's candidate, will not
be as accommodating on climate policy as the
Menem government, based on a review of the
alliance's policy positions. The alliance-or at
least FREPASO, its minority partner-considers
global climate change policy a US responsibility
rather than Argentina's
De la Rua Ahead for Now
Most polls show de la Rua running as many as 12
percentage points ahead of Duhalde, whose
election campaign is in disarray, according to
press reports. Nonetheless, Duhalde trailed de la
Rua by a similar margin late last year but
recovered to achieve a virtual dead heat with his
opponent until a few weeks ago. With as many as
30 percent of voters still undecided, the race is
- The alliance's natural ally in the
international climate change
negotiations is the Group of 77
developing countries, which has created
obstacles to progress to leverage
developed countries for aid.
Ambassador Kelly, a spokesperson for the
alliance, proposes that Argentina develop an
unspecified new protocol for developing
too close to call.
Climate Issues Lacks Visibility
Environmental issues-despite these differing
approaches-have not played a prominent role in
the candidates' policy pronouncements,
The alliance's party
platform makes note only of generic
environmental issues.
countries' emissions commitments
even though negotiators are
focused on implementing the existing Kyoto
Protocol. By contrast, Governor Duhalde of
Buenos Aires Province, the Peronista candidate,
would continue to work on President Menem's
pledge to develop a national greenhouse gas
emissions target under Kyoto,
Leading newspapers in Buenos Aires
have not mentioned climate change
during the campaign and are
concentrating on rising unemployment,
crime, corruption, and education-
issues that to most Argentines'
~
agendas
administration.
The future of the environment secretariat, which
has the lead on the technical workfor
Argentina's emissions target, also depends on the
election outcome. Since Menem established the
secretariat by decree in 1994 it has had no
legislative standing, leaving open the possibility
it could be modified or abolished by a new
7 7
 South Africa Making Strides on Climate
Change and Biodiversity
The Mbeld administration's environmental
agenda is focused primarily on improving
domestic water and waste management, but the
government also is maintaining steady support
for international initiatives including the Kyoto
Protocol on climate change and the UN
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). In
the climate change negotiations, South Africa is
one of the key developing countries moving away
from the G-77 and China's refusal to adopt
voluntary emission growth limits and is actively
pursuing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies
under the Protocol's Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) and US-sponsored joint
initiatives
South
Africa-if it choses to do so-could
position itself as the regional leader on
climate change.
- The new Deputy Minister for
Environmental Affairs and Tourism,
Rejoice Mbhudafasi, is likely to provide
continuity at COP 5 because she attended
the Kyoto and Buenos Aires COPs as a
member of a Parliamentary committee.
Meanwhile, South Africa is adopting new
measures to cope with climate change. Shell has
a $30 million solar energy project for rural areas,
and the University of Durban is developing a
solar powered stove to reduce rural community
reliance on the dwindling supply of firewood.
The Council for Scientific and Industrial
Research, under US sponsorship, has completed
its greenhouse gas inventory and will make it
public soo
On protecting biodiversity, Pretoria can point to its
conservation efforts as major achievements.
Expansion of the Cape National Park, protection of
the fragile fynbos plant kingdom, and measures to
remove invasive alien plants from the Cape and 27
other parks are hailed by environmentalists as
government successes
Friction Likely Over Biosafety Protocol
The commitment to biodiversity conservation has
made South Africa a major player in the debate on
a biosafety protocol to control trade in genetically
modified organisms (GMOs), in which it has
argued that GMO imports could adversely affect
native species if they cross pollinate. In response to
growing pressure from domestic groups calling for
a moratorium on GMOs until a protocol is in place,
Pretoria passed a bill to "promote the responsible
production and use of GMOs" and has voiced
support for notification and labeling requirements.
- South Africa wants the protocol to
ensure that it does not fall victim to
"bioprospecting" bylarge foreign firms
bent on exploiting the country's genetic
resources, and seeks guarantees that
indigenous knowledge of medicinal
plants will be compensated
Environmental and consumer protests
notwithstanding, South Africa's growing interest
in biotechnology may eventually moderate its
stand on GMO controls. South African farmers
already are growing GM cotton and two types of
GM corn and are conducting field tests on GM
strawberries, potatoes, soybeans, and sugarcane,
according to press reports.
--- The government and private sector plan
to invest more in biotechnology
research to develop grasses to help
stabilize soil around mine domes and
GM crops adapted to dry climate and
poor soil.
.771
 GMO Controversy Heating Up in Brazil
Brasilia-trying to quell domestic concern and
to ensure access to the EU and to Asian
markets-is inching toward stricter regulation
of genetically modified organisms (GMO). Such
measures could undercut US agricultural exports
and efforts by US firms to commercialize genetic
modification technologies in Brazil.
- Brazil this summer published regulatory
and monitoring requirements for the
production of genetically modified
soybean seeds and is leaning toward
labeling requirements based on EU
procedures, which requir 'identification
- Brazil is not prepared to stake out
a definitive position on how to handle
the use and trade of GMOs and is likely
to pursue a piecemeal approach.
A federal court has banned use of GMOs
in Brazil until a Brazil-specific environmental
study is completed. Press reports say this has
delayed a US corporation's plans to
commercialize genetically modifred seeds this
year and to introduce 10 more genetically
modfed crops, including cotton and corn.
Brazil is torn between commercializing GMO
technology or capitalizing on its status as a major
supplier to Asian and European countries, many
of which are enacting or drafting restrictions and
labeling requirements on genetically modified
products, including soy-based products, which
are the subject of the current controversy
in Brazil.
--- Brazil is the world's second-largest
producer of soybeans after the US-
exporting $2.3 billion worth last year-
and 60 to 70 percent of all processed
foods contain soy products
Brazilian farmers favor genetically modified
seeds as a way to boost competitiveness
by reducing chemical inputs and increasing
yields, but many may decide to exploit foreign
demand for GMO-free products, especially if
customers are willing to pay a premium.
European and Japanese retailers are turning
to Brazil to supply them with GMO-free
products, prompting state governors and officials
from Brazil's largest soybean-producing states
to push for GMO-free producer status to continue
serving these markets, according to press reports.
- Other press reports, however, say
farmers are planning on illegally
planting 1 million hectares with
genetically modified soybean seeds
shipped fr
om Argentina for harvesting
next year.
Environmental factors are motivating Brazil
to take a cautious approach to GMO policy.
Brazil-host of the 1992 UN Conference on
Environment and Development-has one of the
toughest biodiversity-biosafety regulatory
frameworks in Latin America and will rely on the
results of a court-mandated environmental impact
assessment.
- Anti-GMO organizations are using the
controversy to drum up public
opposition to GMO products, citing
health and environmental concerns.
The Environmental Ministry-more conservative
on GMOs-and the Science and Technology
Ministry-favoring GMO production-are
competing for control of GMO olicymaking
authority Agriculture
Minister Pratini de Moraes-whose Ministry
is partly responsible for the entrance of
biotechnology products into Brazil-says he will
not try to block state-level efforts to ban their use,
according to press reports
 France Talkie Tough on Agriculture
Recent displays of public opposition to hormone-
treated beef, genetically modified organisms
(GMOs), and trade liberalization will harden the
government's disposition to protect the EU's
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in WTO
negotiations scheduled to begin by yearend.
Protests by farm leaders against low produce
prices and WTO-approved US sanctions on
French food exports are beginning to focus on the
WTO.
- The leaders' advocacy of small-scale
and environmentally friendly
agriculture is finding support across the
political spectrum, according to press
reports.
More than two-thirds of respondents to
a recent poll favored prohibiting the use
of GMOs and hormones in food
products.
President Chirac in mid-September stressed his
support for the farmers but not for their
sometimes violent methods and pledged that
France would defend the CAP and criticize US
agricultureal subsidies in coming WTO talks.
Chirac's posturing puts pressure on Prime
Minister Jospin, who takes a more moderate tone
on food safety and agriculture, to follow suit
Jospin's call for caution on modified foods has
helped mollify his allies in the Green Party,
which includes agricultural hardliners dismayed
by his nuclear policies. One Green called the
ransacking of a US fast-food outlet in a farmers'
protest "the dream of all ecologists."
 ?`?,.t
 Increasingly Selective
The UN and major donor countries in recent
years have responded to increasing numbers of
"complex" humanitarian disasters-where armed
hostilities constrain relief efforts-particularly
when the country in crisis is a major trading
partner, hosts critical bases or controls key
shipping lanes, is a key regional ally, or is a source
of refugee flows that threaten regional stability.
Donors' funding constraints and reluctance to
intervene militarily, however, mean they will
continue responding to natural disasters, such as
the earthquakes last month in Turkey and this
month in Taiwan, but will be less supportive
of long-running, complex emergencies.
- The UN, national aid agencies, and
NGOs have enough logistic ca aci
to handle most emergencies
Donor countries and relief organizations are
in agreement on which countries face complex
humanitarian emergencies, and the UN has issued
consolidated appeals for their assistance needs.
Many African countries with continuing crises,
however, will not be fully funded.
- CIA analysis of states in crisis suggests
Angola, Sierra Leone, and Somalia are
at high risk over the next six months of
conflict-driven food shortages and are
vulnerable to mass atrocities over the
next two years
Among non-African humanitarian emergencies,
the food crisis in North Korea is the emergency
with the closest proximity to US troops. Drought
and floods this year have seriously damaged the
grain harvest and may lead North Korea next
year to require more food aid than the 1.2 million
tons delivered or pledged this year.
The International Red Cross estimates that global
losses from natural disasters in the 1990s totaled
more than $500 billion annually, most o which
was absorbed by the affected countries.
CIA's review of natural disaster data suggests the
US in the next few years will be called on to aid
a strategic country digging out from a natural
disaster. Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines-
densely populated, littoral nations-are at risk
of a massive humanitarian emergency from
volcanic eruptions, cyclonic storms, and
earthquakes.
- A shallow, magnitude seven earthquake
striking Tokyo-which some Japanese
geologists say could happen at any
time-would spread fires in crowded
blocks, destroying much of the city, and
leading Japan to pull back some
overseas capital to rebuild Tokyo,
which would tighten the global
investment marke
 -ge-c~
 Se
Laws Lackluster
Chile has been struggling since the early 1990s to
balance economic growth and environmental
protection as part of its goals to enter into a free
trade agreement with the US and joining a Free
Trade of the Americas Agreement. Chile is
concerned that the environment could be used as
a non-tariff trade barrier but recognizes that
environmental regulations must be part of any
free trade deal.
- Santiago has already concluded an
environmental side agreement as part of
its July 1997 Free Trade Accord with
Canada that commits both countries to
strengthening enforcement of
environmental rules
Chilean official lack
resources to enforce their environmental laws and
that solutions will be up to the new administration
taking office in March 2000
Much of Chile's 1994 environmental
framework law still lacks the implementing
legislation needed to trigger effective enforcement.
- Environmentalists consider the National
Environmental Commission
(CONAMA)-on its fifth director in four
years-weak because it lacks
enforcement functions which are left to a
dozen often conflicting ministries.
- CONOMA also is overwhelmed with
coordinating nearly 3,000 regulations
among these ministries and with
reviewing environmental impact
assessments for planned development
projects worth $13.6 billion, many of
but the government is under growing domestic
pressure to mitigate choking smog in the capital
and address acute problems such as sewage and
water treatment. Domestic environmental
controversies such as smog, proposed dam
projects, and logging concessions are likely to
receive increasing attention in the runup to
presidential elections in December.
- The appeal of a recent court order to
halt construction of the government-
backed Ralco Dam 500 km south of
Santiago-which environmentalists and
indigenous groups strongly oppose-
could magnify public unhappiness with
the government's environmental
performance.
- Socialist Party candidate Ricardo Lagos
has already placed an "environmental
policy pact" on his campaign website
where he promises to strengthen the
government's environmental
enforcement capacity
US Commercial Opportunities
Chile's nascent environmental efforts offer
commercial opportunities for US firms selling
environmental goods and services
Santiago plans to spend $1.5 to $2 billion on
environmental programs in the coming decade
and intends to privatize the water sector.
Pollution mitigation efforts will be further
leveraged with assistance from donor countries
and institutions.
them in environmentally damaging
extractive industries.
Environment an Election Issue
Most Chileans view environmental degradation
as an unavoidable consequence of development,
- Chile relies on imports almost entirely
to meet the demand for pollution control
equipment; US exports accounted for
almost half of this market in 1998.'
World Bank loan for agricultural and
environmental programs
 Selected International Environment Related Meetings
4-8 October Biodiversity Convention Expert Panel
on Access and Benefit Sharing
14-15 October US-EU Environmental Bilateral Meeting
25 October- Fifth Session of the Conference of Parties
5 November to the Climate Change Convention
30 November-
3 December
6-10 December
10-16 December
24-25 January 2000
31-January-
4 February
April
Third Session of the Conference of Parties
to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification
Fifth Conference of Parties to the
Basel Convention
Sixth International Conference on
Acid Rain Deposition
OECD Task Force on Biological
Resource Centers
Subsidiary Body for Scientific, Technical
and Technological Advice to the
Biodiversity Convention
Eleventh Conference of Parties to
the Convention on International
in Endangered Species
Washington
Tsukuba,
Japan