NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005500596
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 2, 1985

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 Lebanon-Syria-USSR Tripoli Battle Spawns Kidnapings
South Africa: Reaction to Botha's Speech ..............................
Israel-Tunisia-PLO: Aftermath of Tunis Airstrlke ....................... 12
Mexico: Implications of the Earthquake ...................................... 14
40
 LEBANON-SYRIA- Tripoli Battle Spawns Kidnaping.
USSR:
Military pressure by Syrian forces and their surrogates has failed
to quell Lebanese Sunni fundamentalists in Tripoli, who have
retaliated by threatening to execute no 117 Soviet diplomats
kidnaped in Notrut on Monday.
several pro-Syrian Lebanese militias,
backed by intensive Syrian artillery fire, launched a major offensive
against the Islamic Unification Movement in Tripoli on Saturday. The
press reports that the fundamentalists, support
Palestinian guerrillas, are giving stiff resistance
A message delivered with the kidnaped diplomats' identity cards
threatened that the four Soviets will be executed unless Syrian and
pro-Syrian forces withdraw from the Tripoli area and the USSR
condemns the fighting. There is no confirmation that eny of the Soviet
diplomats have been killed. TASS said late yesterday the kidnapings
were a gross violation of international law and called for
condemnation of the act. It also claimed "competent Soviet agencies
are taking all the necessary steps" to save the hostages.
Comment: Elements of the Islamic Unification Movement almost
certainly kidnaped the Soviet diplomats to put pressure on Syria to
end Its siege of Tripoli. Even so, Damascus remains committed to
crushing the fundamentalists and their Palestinian allies and is
unlikely to accede to the demands of the kidnapers.
The TASS statement appears aimed primarily at Soviet domestic
audiences and suggests Moscow prefers to use diplomatic channels
to secure the release of the diplomats. The Soviets may seek
assistance from PLO chief Arafat, whose forces are allied with the
fundamentalists in Tripoli. In any attempt to free the hostages, the
Soviets would face familiar obstacles, Including an inability to locate
them, the almost certain unwillingness of Assad to move his own
troops Into Beirut, and the difficulties associated with using Soviet
troops.
 SOUTH AFRICA: Reaction to Botha's Speech
Domestic reaction to President Botha's speech on Monday has
been mixed. amid saaculaflon he will lift the state of emergency
Botha accepts the general principle of universal franchise within as
yet undefined future political structures. Breaking new ground, he
states that the government will consider Including blacks on the
President's Council-an advisory body to Botha and an adjunct to
Kwazulu Chief Minister Buthelezi and representatives of the
multiracial United Democratic Front have denounced the speech,
however, because It falls far short of outlining a genuine power-
sharing system. Reactions by the pro-reform white opposition party
have been guarded, but some critics in the outspoken business
community call Botha's remarks his most positive yet concerning
Comment: The longer term reaction to Botha's initiatives will depend
on the form his proposals take when introduced in parliament later
this year. The resolution of the citizenship Issue has been one of the
conditions demanded by many black leaders for entering into talks
with the government, even thou h few are likely to step forward as
long as the unrest continues.
Pretoria declared the state of emergency largely to reassure Its white
constituency, but there has been little difference in security
operations In or outside the 36 districts under emergency regulations.
Botha may end the state of emergency in some of the quieter districts
as a demonstration of strength before a round of parliamentary
byelections at the end of the month. A complete termination of the
state of emergency is unlikely at this time, because continuing
violence would belie any government claim that it had reestablished
control In the riot-torn townships.
i
 Topseeret-
qD
 GREECE: Softening the Hard Line on US Bases
Prime Minister Papandreou appears to be laying the groundwork
fora shift in policy that would allow the continued operation of
US bases after the US-Greek defense cooperation agreement
expires in low
Papandreou told members
at a meeting of his party's central committee last weekend that long-
range, strategic goals-pulling Greece out of NATO, withdrawing
from the EC, and removing the US bases-must not be confused with
intermediate or tactical objectives. He said his government had a
responsibility to respond to the "mature" demands of the people.
Comment: Papandreou's statements are at best a tentative first step
toward a policy change. Nonetheless, by placing the removal of US
bases in the same category as withdrawal from NATO and the EC-
which Papandreou has said he does not intend to pursue in the
foreseeable future-he seems to be backing away from the hard line
he has held until now. As with NATO and EC membership, Greece
derives benefits from the continued operation of saes -a steady
supply of military aid and equipment
The comments were directed at party ideologues who have been
grumbling recently about the government's failure to undertake its
more radical foreign policy programs. The remarks are especially
significant because they were made in a forum where the left wing
predominates and where Papandreou traditionally has taken his
 We
 French officials Intend to raise human rights questions with General
Secretary G I least three ti meetings that
begin today Human rights
issues have dominated recent previews o the visit in French media
and have been the subject of at least one large anti-Soviet
demonstration. A recent poll, meanwhile, Indicates the French people
are more dubious than the West Germans or the British about
Gorbachev's professed Interest In peace
Comment: President Mitterrand may have decided to put emphasis
on Soviet human rights abuses as a counterpoise to the concentration
on disarmament Issues he expects from Gorbachev. Despite his
vulnerability to charges of French involvement in the Greenpeace
bombing, Mitterrand probably believes that firmness on human rights
will win him solid public backing. He may try to balance this criticism
of Moscow, however, by restating general French opposition to the
To
 President Ortega has announced an Investigation to determine
whether the US is responsible for the current epidemic of dengue
fever and the outbreak of cotton blight that is predicted to greatly
Commatt: In his suggestions of US biological warfare, Ortega is
following the precedent set by Castro In explaining the dengue fever
epidemic In Cuba in 1981 rather than acknowledging Nicaragua's
inadequate control of disease-carrying mosquitoes. Nicaraguan
Minister of Agriculture Wheelock and other officials have already
noted publicly that the cotton disease resulted from improper
preparation of seed before planting. In addition, Nicaragua failed to
obtain seed from blight-resistant strains of cotton. The loss of
manpower in the next two to three months from dengue-a severe
but nonfatal disease-and the probable loss of foreign exchange
economic problems for Nicaragua.
i
 PANAMA: Tensions Building
Defense Chief Noriega is taking a tough line toward public discontent
over the military's involvement in a murder scandal and in President
Barletta's removal. An opposition group of 40,000 professionals and a
student federation have called for a general strike tomorrow unless
the new government commissions an independent investigations Into
the murder of Huao Soadafora, a strong critic of Norieaa.l
Comment: The Defense Forces may round up or threaten opposition
leaders to try to head off the strike and almost certainty will break up
any demonstrations. Noriega appears determined to ride out the
Spadatora affair at the risk of violent confrontations. He will be
increasingly vulnerable to plottina within the military if the protests
widen or bloody clashes occur.
is
 Tanzania;
Zanzibar
1984 Zanzibar merges with mainland Tanganyika to form United
Republic of Tanzania. Economies remain separate:
Zanzibar maintains autonomous stale government,
1977 Zanzibar and mainland political parties unite to form the
Chains Cho Mapinduzi, Tanzania a sole political party.
1993 Mainland elements of the military are rotated to duty on
Zanzibar in an effort to quell rising separatist sentiment.
 Tanzania is facing a severe oil shortage, largely the result of depleted
foreign exchange reserves and repeated defaults to oil suppliers.
Tanzania's refinery will close this
week; the Army, campaigners for national elections in late October,
and the Dar as Salaam area have top priority for remaining petroleum
supplies. Outside the capital reserves are exhausted, food and crop
transportation is paralyzed, and the tourist industry-already
suffering from poor service and high prices-is grinding to a halt.
Meanwhile, senior government and party officials are conducting a
vigorous campaign to garner support for the sole candidate for
President of Zanzibar who automatically-becomes Vice President of
Tanzania. despite these efforts,
residents of Zanzibar and Pemba remain firmly opposed to him.
Comment: The oil crisis will not be alleviated until November, when
oil on order from an independent supplier is expected to be refined.
Zanzibari animosity over the poorly regarded and wasteful election
 - Japanese may withdraw from oil projects in southern Iraq
following recent Iranian air raids ... Japanese project at Khor
Ai-Zubair hit on 15 September ... Japan in oil projects in Iraq
- Soviet President Gromyko met in Moscow with Madagascar's
President Ratsiraka on Monday ... coverage suggests exchange
probably probing extent of Ratsiraka's new Western tilt.
- Press reports India recognized Polisario Front yesterday,
prompting Morocco to break relations with New Delhi ... most
important victory yet in Algerian efforts on Front's behalf ... will
improve chances for similar success during current UN session.
- Residents of central, southern Mozambique still threatened by
starvation estimated 2.5 million
feeling impact .. . rural insurgency hinderina relief effort
interfering with production in agriculture
i
 ~~
 - Uruguayan trade unions to renew talks with government on an
accord to reduce labor unrest ... move follows ineffective 24-hour
general strike last week ... will helD President Sanauinetti's efforts
- Greenpeace planning $1 million Antarctic research station ...
hoping to qualify for Antarctic consultative status ... could then
lobby against exploitative national projects ... station to be within
 Special Analysis
ISRAEL-TUNISIA- Aftermath of Tunis Airatrike
PLO.
liners retaliatory sirstrlke on PLO headquarters near Tunis
yesterday Is a signal to King Hussein that he must crack down on
Fatah activities In Jordan to avoid similar Israeli attacks there.
But the King probably believes he can do little more to restrain
Fatah activities In Jordan without risking serious repercussions
at home and courting censure by Arab states. Fatah almost
certainly will strike back at Israeli targets.
Israeli Defense Minister Rabin said that eight F-15s struck the PLO's
compound in retaliation for the Palestinian murder last week of three
Israeli yachtsmen near Cyprus, an attack for which Israel hclds PLO
Chairman Arafat responsible. This was the most distant airstrike ever
undertaken by the Israelis, who scored hits on PLO headquarters and
administration buildings. the attack
killed an estimated 45 Palestinians and 15 Tunisians and wounded
many more. Arafat was in Tunis during the raid but escaped injury.
The Tunis attack followed several weeks of Increased terrorist activity
in the West Bank-which Israel has blamed on Arafat's Fatah
organization, the largest component of the PLO. Israel is convinced
that Fatah has directed violence in the West Bank from its bases in
Jordan; Israeli leaders have repeatedly warned Hussein that such
The attack underscores the growing pressure Likud hardliners-led
by Commerce and Industry Minister Sharon-are placing on Prime
Minister Peres to punish the PLO for terrorism aimed at Israelis.
Israel's choice of PLO facilities in Tunis as a target instead of PLO
facilities in Jordan, however, indicates that for the time being Peres is
primarily concerned with not humiliating King Hussein and limiting the
damage that retaliatory attacks Inflict on the peace process
All the options available to Hussein carry major risks. Concerned over
the sensibilities of Jordan's Palestinians-a majority of the
population-and fearful of losing Arab political and financial support,
he is unlikely to move precipitately to expel the PLO. He nevertheless
probably will warn Arafat in private that any attempt to conduct
terrorist operations from Jordan will result in immediate expulsion,
and he will encourage key PLO leaders to stay out of Jordan for the
To
2 October 1985
qw
 time being. Hussein probably will also stress once again to Israel that
he Is taking all reasonable precautions to prevent PLO cross border
The PLO Is likely to retaliate for yesterday's airstrike with more
attacks on Israeli targets Inside Israel, elsewhere In the region, or
even in Europe. Arafat is likely to come under increasing pressure
from Fatah hardliners to hit Israel from Jordan. He probably wilt try to
discourage cross-border operations to prevent the PLO's expulsion
by Hussein, but he will continue to direct operations by activists in the
The raid may damage US-Tunisian relations over the short term
because the Tunisians probably suspect the US knew about the raid
beforehand. Washington's promises to protect Tunisia against Libyan
aggression also may now have a hollow ring; Tunis may seek some
Libya almost certainly will try to exploit the airstrike to drive a wedge
between Tunisia and the US by portraying US security guarantees as
meaningless. Qadhafi probably will follow up this effort by trying to
restore relations with Tunis, at the same time encouraging the
Tunisians vent r on US personnel and facilities there.
40
 Spacial Analysis
MEXICO: Implications of the Earthquake
Mexico apparently Intends to use the earthquake disaster to
strengthen Its case for new financial assistance, but commercial
lenders are likely to tend only a portion of the additional funds
Mexico deems necessary for 19* The disaster also will add to
President de to Madrid's political problems, but serious
opposition is not likely to develop.
Mexico City was the hardest hit; approximately 50,000 people were
left homeless, and 1,000 of the city's 1 million buildings will need to be
rebuilt. Several million residents remain without water. At the same
time, only 2 percent of the city sustained major damage, and there
was no significant effect on the country's industrial base or oil-
production facilities.
For a while the rebuilding effort will help replace jobs lost as a result
of the earthquake and will stimulate economic activity. Although
major tourist centers largely were spared, tourism will take months to
Even though Mexicans tend to rally behind the president in times of
crisis, the government's handling of the disaster is causing some
political reactions. approximately
2,000 people demonstrated In the capital last Friday to demand
housing and other disaster-related assistance. Opposition leaders
have already publicly blamed the government for permitting shoddy
construction of some of the buildings that collapsed. The conservative
National Actior. Party, the government's strongest political rival, has
not yet sought to exploit the issue.
continued
lop lei
2 October 1985
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 International lenders will demonstrate some flexibility over the next
few months, but they are unlikely to loan Mexico much more than the
$2 billion or so next year they were grudgingly willing to provide
before the disaster. Bankers probably will soon urge tong-term
structural changes that they believe , are necessary for a lasting
Both Mexico City and the banking community will expect Washington
to act on their behalf. The Mexican administration will seek to have
funding from the World Bank and other multilateral lenders increased,
while US bankers will want Washington to Persuade Mexico to follow
policies aimed at long-term reform.
The disaster will make it difficult for de Is Madrid to impose new
austerity measures soon, as the administration apparently had
intended. Because the President recognizes that postponement will
only heighten the economic trauma In the future, he Is likely to resume
belt tightening In a few months, after the effects of the earthquake
Such steps, even though delayed, and the criticism of the government
that Is surfacing portend a further reduction in de la Madrid's
popularity. Nonetheless, as in previous disasters, popular anger will
probably wane in a few months. Moreover, de Is Madrid commands
the loyalty of the military and security forces, which remain capable
and willing to contain any localized protests against the government.