WARSAW PACT FORCE MODERNIZATION PROGRAM

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: CIA Analysis of the Soviet Navy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005508937
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 19, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 19, 2017
• Case Number: SC-2007-00006
• Publication Date: August 13, 1979

APPROVED FOR RELEASE
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
13 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director of Central Intelligence
FROM
SUBJECT
Acting Director of Strategic Research
Warsaw Pact Force Modernization Program
1. The attached memorandum prepared by the CIA's Office of
Strategic Research assesses probable developments in the modernization
of Polish ground and tactical air forces through the mid-1980s. It
is based largely on documents outlining Soviet proposals for Warsaw
Pact modernization and on the Polish General Staff's recommended
response. The memorandum concludes that Polish planners do not anti-
cipate making more than token progress over the next six years toward
achievement of the modernization goals proposed by the Soviets, thus
underscoring OSR's view that East Europeans view the Pact plan as a
general objective rather than as a firm plan to be achieved by the
mid-1980s.
2. This is a report. For convenience of reference
by NFIB agencies, the codeword has been assigned to the
product of certain extremely sensitive agent sources of CIA's
Directorate of Operations. The word is classified
and is to be used only among persons authorized to read
and handle this material.
3. This memorandummust be handled in accordance with established
security procedures. It may not be reproduced for any purpose.
Queries regarding the substance of this memorandum may be addressed
to the Director, Office of Strategic Research. Requests for extra
copies or for utilization of any part of this re ort in any other form
should be addressed to the Deputy Director for Jat1ons.
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SUBJECT: Warsaw Pact Force Modernization Program
Distribution:
The Director of Central Intelligence
The Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
The Assistant to the Chief of Staff for Intelligence
Department of the Army
Director, National Security Agency
Director of the National Foreign Assessment Center
Director of Strategic Research
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MEMORANDUM
13 August 1979
Warsaw Pact Force Modernization Program
1. A recently acquired, highly classified document has provided
additional evidence of the probable reaction of the East Europeans
to Soviet proposals for the modernization of Warsaw Pact forces in
the 1980s. In a previous memorandum
we described the Soviet program and concluded that it would be un-
likely for the East Europeans to meet the goals by 1985. This latest
document supports our conclusion.
2. The document contains Polish General Staff recommendations
for the procurement of new equipment and weapon systems for their
forces during the 1981-85 Five Year Plan period. Although we cannot
predict what changes may be made as the recommendations proceed
through other levels of review, their extent is not likely to be
great.
3. The Polish staff recommends procurement of most types of
weapons included in the Soviet plan that was approved in December 1978
by the Pact defense ministers. The number of weapons to be procured,
however, falls far short of the goals established by the Pact plan.
NOTE: This memorandum was prepared in the Office of Strategic Research.
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Ground Forces. The level of investment in new ground force
weaponry (expressed in constant rubles) recommended by the Polish
staff appears to be only about a third of that which would be required
to fully implement the improvements called for in the Pact plan (see
Table 1). If the Polish recommendations were accepted, the spending
shortfall would be greatest in T-72 tank procurement: less than 25
percent of the estimated total Polish T-72 requirement would be met
by the end of 1985. The Poles also would fail to achieve the inventory
levels that we believe to be required by the Pact plan for most new
models of artillery, antitank weapons, and air defense systems.
Tactical Air Forces. Polish acquisition of new tactical
aircraft to replace older fighters and fighter-bombers also would
fall short of the number required to meet the estimated goals of
the Pact program (see Table 2). We believe the Pact plan requires
maintaining the present size of the Polish tactical aircraft inventory
while replacing some 70 percent of the older aircraft. Under the
Polish plan, however, the total inventory would decrease by some 7
percent as some older aircraft were scrapped, 72 percent retained,
and only 21 percent replaced with new aircraft.
4. Implications. It is clear from this document that Polish
planners do not anticipate making more than token progress over the
next six years. The document thus underscores our belief that the
East Europeans view the Pact plan as a general objective rather than
a firm plan to be achieved by the mid-1980s. While there are indi-
cations that some, if not all, of the East Europeans anticipate
modest increases in weapons procurement spending during the 1981-85
period, we continue to doubt that substantial progress toward the
goals outlined in the Pact plan will be made over the next decade.
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TABLE 1: RELATIVE
Polish Plan
1981 - 1985
1981 - 1985
(1970 Constant-itubles)--_
SAMs
ATGMs
Artillery
Full Implementation
of Pact Program
BMPs
------ T-72 Tanks
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TABLE 2: TACTICAL AIRCRAFT MODERNIZATION
Full Implementation
100% of Pact Program
80%
60%
40%
20%
REPLACED
RETAINED
Polish Plan
1981 - 1985
SCRAPPED
REPLACED
RETAINED
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