THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 DECEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 14, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
14 December 1973
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011900010012-2
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5Ii(
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
me IL,
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
14 December 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
There are continuing reports that Syria is putting
its civilian population and military forces on a
wartime footing./
// (Page 1)
raell
Egypt Is-
(Page 3
Syria
Page 5,
Yasir Arafat may be approaching the US on a settle-
ment that would provide for a "Palestine" state--
Jordan's former west bank and Gaza--federated with
Israel. (Page 7)
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The North Koreans have toned down their territorial
claims in the Yellow Sea, at least for the moment.
They did not raise the issue at yesterday's meeting
of the Military Armistice Commission. (Page 9)
Despite Moscow's claim this week that it is reducing
its military budget, the gradual growth in Soviet
defense spending evident since 1969 will in fact
continue in 1974. (Page 10)
Six Arab states have agreed to form a $230-million
investment company, to finance Arab agricultural
and shipping ventures. (Page 11)
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MIDDLE EAST
There are continuing reports from a variety of
sources that Syria is putting its civilian popula-
tion and military forces on a wartime footing.
Da-
mascus armed its popular militia
and distributed gasoline-powered generators to
bakeries throughout Syria. The distribution of
generators suggests the government is taking
steps to ensure food supply in the event hos-
tilities are resumed. Similar measures report-
edly were taken prior to the October 6 attack.
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Syrian Ministry of Planning has been put on a'
"war basis" and that other ministries and
schools have been alerted to be ready to follow
suit.
the situation on
the Syrian front is "extremely strained" and
that "hostilities could start at any moment."
all Syrian forces at
the front have been in a maximum state of alert
since December 8 and that there have been sig-
nificant Syrian troop movements and reinforce-
ment in the area. The Syrian Army is said to
be bitter over the government's acceptance of
the cease-fire and eager to resume the fighting.
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Sadat and Syrian President Asad probably are
entertaining the notion of resuming the fighting
if negotiations reach a serious impasse
Follow-
ing a cabinet session in Amman yesterday, it was
officially announced that Jordan will take a "posi-
tive attitude" toward the invitation to attend the
conference.
Only scattered incidents were noted on the
Golan and Suez fronts yesterday. In the most seri-
ous incident, Egyptian and Israeli tanks exchanged
fire for about an hour in the area of the main Cairo-
Suez road. Both Israeli and Egyptian aircraft were
detected flying reconnaissance missions and defen-
sive patrols. Cairo claims to have downed one Is-
raeli reconnaissance aircraft over its territory,
apparently an unmanned drone which sources in Tel
Aviv said had gone astray.
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EGYPT-SYRIA-ISRAEL
(continued)
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SYRIA
From all outward signs, President Asad seems
to be fairly secure in power. Syria's politics
have always been so precarious, however, and infor-
mation on internal Syrian affairs so sketchy and
contradictory, that it is impossible to assess
Asad's staying power with confidence. Clearly, he
is under heavy pressures from both political allies
and foes.
Just before the outbreak of war there-were.
numerous-.-often conflicting--reports of attempts.
to overthrow him on the part of his long-standing
enemies: right-wing-exiles in Beirut, leftist
Baath exiles in Baghdad, rival claimants to power
with support in the army-or the Syrian Baath Party.,
and members of the majority Sunni Muslim community
who resent the predominant position Asad has given
members of his own smaller Alawite sect. When the.
fighting broke out, however, Asad's enemies rallied
tosupport the war effort. Now many of them are.
said to be critical of Asad's.decision to accept
a ceasefire, as.are many of his previous supporters.
The initial opposition to Asad's handling of
the war came from some of the fedayeen and from the
Iraqis; who had sent a sizable force to Syria's as-
sistance. These groups were joined by-those-Syrians
who have always been sympathetic to the more radi-
cal Iraqi. variety of Baathism./
Discontent among. Sunni military' officers is,
probably the most serious threat to Asad, whose re-
gime depends on army su?sort.
/Asad has reason to be concerned about their
loyalty and is making efforts to repair his stand-
ing with them. To help him, he has over the years
developed a network of supporters--often hand-
picked--in the armed forces, the security apparatus,
and the party. He also has formed an elite 10,000-
man security force under the command of his brother.
(continued)
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There is also considerable pressure on Asad to
resume the fighting. Apparently most of the Syrian
leadership, including Asad himself, agreed to the
halt with great reluctance, and many officers are
said to believe that the cease-fire cheated them of
an opportunity to regain at least some of the ground
they lost in mid-October. Syrians do not believe
that Israel wants peace, and most probably would
rather fight the Israelis than negotiate. If the
peace talks drag out, Asad will have.his hands full.
coping. with their sentiments, assuming that he does
not lose all patience with the Israelis himself.
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FEDAYEEN-US
President Houphouet-Boigny of the Ivory Coast
has received a private message from Yasir Arafat
which he says is actually an approach to the US on
a Palestinian settlement.
As reported to Ambassador Root in Abidjan, the
message from Arafat asserts that:
--the Palestine Liberation Organization in no
way seeks the destruction of Israel, but ac-
cepts its existence as a sovereign state;
--the PLO's main aim at the Geneva conference
will be the creation of a Palestinian state out
of the "Palestinian part of Jordan," plus Gaza;
--Arafat is personally prepared for a phased
development from a confederation of Israel and
the new state to a simple federation. He is
not ready to divulge this to other Arab states,
however, although he claims that all the PLO
except the extremist wing supports him;
--Arafat has chosen the Ivorian President as
the exclusive intermediary for this message
because Houphouet enjoys the full confidence
of the United States.
The bearer of this message was Dr. Asam Sartawi,
a respected US-trained surgeon who has been associ-
ated with Arafat's Fatah and with a Palestinian lib-
eration group of his own, and is one of the more
moderate members of the PLO executive committee.
Sartawi was in Abidjan last week at the head of a
PLO delegation and reportedly spent considerable
time with the President.
The Ivorian ambassador to the US is to carry
this message when he returns to Washington early
next week.
The message may well be a genuine effort by
Arafat to approach the United States through an in-
termediary who can be trusted by both sides. A Pal-
estine federated with Israel would not be the kind
of proposal the PLO leader would want to make through
an Arab channel, and the concept is one that Arafat
would have to oppose publicly unless it were put
forward during negotiations as the last chance for
a Palestinian-run state.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
The Communists
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recent at-
tacks against border outposts in Kontum, Pleiku,
and Quang Duc provinces have brought them some ter-
ritorial gains in remote areas, through which they
are developing a north-south supply corridor. In
addition, the Communists may now be increasing mil-
itary activity in the delta near the Cambodian bor-
der and elsewhere.
The annual dry season push to move men and sup-
plies south from North Vietnam is under way
another North Vietnamese infan-
try division has recently returned home from northern
South Vietnam--the third division to leave this area
since the cease-fire.
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KOREA
Pyongyang appears to be playing down, at least
for the moment, its claim to waters surrounding the
five islands in the Yellow Sea. The Communists did
not raise the issue at?the preliminary meeting of
the Military Armistice Commission yesterday. The
meeting, requested by the North Koreans, took place
after South Korean vessels had traveled to and from
islands in the disputed waters without obtaining
permission from Pyongyang.
The North Koreans had already modified their
threat, made at the full MAC session on December 1,
to act against any vessels attempting passage with-
out prior clearance. A week later, they said this
action would apply only to ships carrying out "re-
connaissance and other hostile acts."
Some 40 North Korean boats now routinely patrol
the waters around the South Korean-controlled is-
lands that lie within Pyongyang's claimed 12-mile
limit. On December 11, three of these boats made
high-speed passes at South Korean vesselsf
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USSR
The 1974 Soviet defense budget announced on
December 12 will amount to 17.6 billion rubles, a
decline of about 2 percent from last year's 17.9
billion total, which has held constant since 1969.
Military spending, according to the announcement,
will decline to 9.1 percent of the national budget
from last year's 9.9 percent. Despite these claims,
intelligence estimates indicate that the gradual
growth in Soviet defense spending evident since 1969
will in fact continue in 1974. Moreover, the pace
is expected to quicken in 1975 and 1976 when the
USSR begins putting in place ICBM systems now under
development.
The Soviets use their announced budget for
political purposes, and they apparently hope that
it will convey to domestic and foreign audiences a
sense of confidence that further progress in detente
will be made.
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NOTE
Arab States: Six Arab states--Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and Sudan?have
agreed to form a $230-million investment company,
to finance Arab agricultural and shipping ventures.
The company is being hailed as the first project
motivated by last week's Arab League decision to
repatriate foreign deposits for investment in Arab
countries. The capitalization involved will not
lead to any noticeable drawdown in Arab holdings
in the US or Western Europe. Similar companies
have appeared in the Middle East over the past five
years, but so far they have not made much impact.
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Top Secret
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