SOVIET NAVAL PRESENCE OUTSIDE HOME WATERS IN 1978

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: CIA Analysis of the Soviet Navy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006107714
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: June 19, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 19, 2017
• Case Number: SC-2007-00006
• Publication Date: June 1, 1979

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Soviet Naval Presence
Outside Horne Waters
In 1978
A Research Paper
ccret
SR 79- (0069C
June 1970
(.."1". 000
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Soviet Naval Presence
Outside Home Waters
In 1978
A Research Paper
Information as of! May 1979 has been used
in preparing this report.
Strategic
1.orces Division, Office of Strategic Research, and
coordinated with the Office of Political Analysis.
The data on which the paper is based and assisia nee in
interpreting them were provided by the Naval
Ocean Surveillance info; :nation Center. Suitland,
Nlaryland.
Comments and queries arc welcome and should be
directed to
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Soviet Naval Presence
Outside Home Waters
In 1978
A Summary
Soviet naval deployments to areas outside the USSR's home waters in 1978
were slightly higher than in 1977, but still well below the peak established in
1974, when Soviet ships were involved in mine-clearing and salvage
operations in Bangladesh and the Suez Canal, and the Soviet Mediterranean
Squadron had access to port facilities in Egypt.
Although the level of such deployments has remained relatively constant for
the past four years, there have been significant fluctuaticns in the numbers
of ships deployed to particular regions. For example, Soviet naval activity in
the Indian Ocean increased substantially in 1978, primarily as a result of
Soviet assistance to Ethiopia during the Ethiopia-Somalia conflict, There
also was a shift in the composition of the Indian Ocean Squadron, with more
amphibious ships and auxiliaries present than in the past. Soviet naval
activity increased in the waters off West Africa in 1978, but elsewhere in the
Atlantic and in the Pacific it was generally at a lower level than in 1977.
High levels of naval activity during the first three months of 1979, especially
off the coast of Southeast Asia, almost guarantee that total ioviet ship-days
in distant areas will increase slightly once again this year. More important,
whatever the final ship-day level, the Soviet naval presence, when measured
in terms or either operational capability or potential political impact, is
likely to be more significant than in the past.
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Soviet Naval Presence
Outside Home Waters
In 1978
Introduction
During the past year, events in several widely scattered
areas of the world?the Persian Gulf, Cuba, and
Southeast Asia, for example--have focused interest on
the operations of the Soviet Navy in areas distant from
the USSR. Western newspapers and periodicals fre-
quently carry articles reflecting a Widespread concern
about a perceived growth in Soviet naval capabilities
for projecting power in areas such as the Indian Ocean,
the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, and the waters off
West Africa. This study examines the changes in the
level of Soviet naval activity in these areas during the
past five years and provides a factual background
against which the significance of the Soviet naval
presence might be assessed
Soviet naval deployments to areas distant from the
USSR's home waters rose in 1978 to about 49,400
ship-days, an increase of about 4 percent over the 1977
level. Nevertheless. the ship-days spent by Soviet
warships, auxiliaries, and naval-associated civilian
vessels in distant areas last year roughly approximated
the levels of recent years. Beginning in 1975, after
mine-clearing and salvage operations in Bangladesh
and the Suez Canal ended, Soviet naval vessels have
spent between 47,300 and 49.400 ship-days per year
away from home water, That relative stability,
however, masks some significant fluctuations in the
numbers and types of ships deployed to particular
regions (sec charts 1 and 2)
from depots in Aden. South Yemen, to Ethiopia, and
from the Ethiopian port or Assab to the bc,zieged port
of Massawa. The amphibious ships landed supplies
Jirectly on the beaches near the contested area.
bypassing Ethiopian ports clogged by Soviet and East
European merchant ships involved in the large wartime
supply effort. The second major factor contributing to
the unusual size of the squadron during that period was
the larger number of auxiliary ships?replenishment
and repair ships, oilers. naval-associated merchant
tankers. and intelligence collectors- which supported
the Ethiopian supply effort (see chart 3).
Major surface combatants were not a pr'ncipal factor
in the increased presence in early 1978 (see table ).
Soviet naval combatants played no direct part in the ?
conflict, either independently or in support of Ethio-
pian military actions. Soviet frigates did conduct
barrier patrols in the Red Sea north and sow h of the
area in which the Soviets were assisting the Ethiopians
By June 1978, the
squadron had dropped to lower than normal levehr?]
The Indian Ocean Squadron
Indian Ocean
Soviet activity in the Indian Ocean rive sharply in
978 to a level 26 percent higher than that of 1977.
The number of-hip-days that Soviet naval vessels
spent in the intik; n Ocean was, in fact, the highest
since the Suez and Bangladesh operations of 1974.
Special operations again were responsible for much of
the increase. From .iantiary to April the Indian Ocean
Squadron included abnormally high numbers of
amphibious ships, which were used to ferry supplies
51,iketlp
1975-77
Stibmarints
Ntamr surface conthars nts 4
Amphibious ships 4
male Yi.ar(iirc vcisds
ti) 12-14
I lydrographic and siv.ce
support vcsst is
Total
2-3 2-3
18-21 24-31
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Guided Missile Submarines
Torpedo Attack Submarines
Combatants Over 10,000 Tons
Combatants 3,100-10,000 Tons
Combatants Under 3,000 Tons
Mine Warfare Vessels
AmpIWoious Ships
Mediterranean
(2)
Indian Ocean
West Africa
(6)
.dnakilablishesse
ithadthiatimir (3)
( 2 )
( 2 1
6abitlek, (2)
'These are tyPic.al raiher than avniage composihrsns. The numbly* vary constantly: the Mediterranean Squadron rs generally
smaller during the winter than he summer. lot example, and the iridian Ocean Squadron includes a cruiser only AbOvi six
mnnihs oui of every twelve During lho remainder of he year. the?e might be two destroyers or frigates of 3,000-10.000
Ions in the Inn.an Ocean.
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Chart 2: Soviet Out-of-Area Ship-Days
Ship-days (thousands)
By Region
50
40-
Mine-clearing and
Salvage Operations
In Suez and Bangladesh
By Ship Type
77 78
Indian Ocean
Pacific
African waters.
\--Caribbean'
--Atlantic
--Mediterranean
Support Ships
Combatants
Hydfographic and Space
Support Ships
N?ral aurtilaries
rDeIllsktics ,.Missile
submamnes
,_?Aitic
n.s
-Patrol Combatants
Mina Warfera Sips
.--Amphibious Ships
-Surface Combatants
70
1074
75
76
77
70
'The Vtier..ist Africa,' ship-days lot 1974 and the Civibbean ship?days Or 1974 and 1975 were noiIlied scparitinly
bul wire included ri the totals for the Atlantic.
570817 h rrict
3
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Chart 3: Indian Ocean Ship-Days
Ship-days (thousands)
10
?....---Hydrographle end
Space Support Ships
".??:47
? Auxiliaries
Submaiines
Mine Warfare Ships
?Amphibious Ships
of 3
?Maio! Surlace Combatants
197A' 75 76 77 78
' 1074 I,cturet . el r, I u d e? 2.727 days devoted 10 tn.", Cleam,g aml Saivarle f7P.'a,'^", '^134"9'0'1"?1'
and the Sue; Thnte appals, in the mator sv/race Combatant and mine wartaw CateVales
578816'. /1.
Slightly higher than normal ship levels from Septem-
ber to December 1978 reflected, in part, an increase in
the number of surface combatants. Throughout the fall
the squadron included two amphibious and two mine
warfare ships, and in December an overlap in the
arrival of ships and the departure of those they were
relieving temporarily raised the number of surface
combatants to 11.
Over the whole year, however, much of the increase
merely reflected the larger numbers of auxiliaries. It is
likely that the larger numbers will be the norm in
coming months. The Soviets have not yet arranged for
v,}
permanent facilities elsewhere to replace all those in
Somalia,' and, given the continuing instability in the
region, they may not replace them for seine time. Until
they do, additional replenishment and material support
vessels?naval or merchant fleet?will probably be
required to support squadron operations
Mediterranean Sea
The Soviet presence in the Mediterranean remained
about 18 percent below that of the period 1973-75,
when the Soviets had access to the shipyard and other
naval facilities at Alexandria. Egypt (see chart 4)
4
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Chart 4: Mediterranean Ship-Days
Ship-days (thousands)
lummm'an4------HydrographIc and
SPaCa SupPrtat Ships
1974 75
AuaflivI
Submartnes
- Patrol Combatants
/-641na Warfare Ships
Amphibious Ships
- /Amor Surface Combatants
Au., harms I nc Jude both naval Ships and na.ial.assOiCiated merchant ships. Hydrographtc and !pa c
Support p-days were rot tallied separairly r1 1974 but were oncludoe .n ihr total ter ausilinren
529819 6. N.
Submarine operations continued to decline steadily
from the peak level of 1974. The Soviets now maintain
an average of eight or nine submarines in the
Mediterranean, compared with 15 in 1974. This force
usually consists er six or seven F-class diesel torpedo
attack submarines, a 1-class diesel cruise missile
submarine, and one or two C- or E-class nuclear cruise
missile submarines
Surface combatants and auxiliaries, most of which
come to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea Fleet,
evidently were much less affected by the loss of
Egyptian facilities than were the submarines, which
almost always are detailed from the more distant
Northern Fleet. For example, the number of surface
combatants has dropped only slightly, from an average
of 15 per day in 1974 to about 13 per day in 1978
As in previous years, Soviet ships in the Mediterranean
spent a substantial portion of their lime in sheltered
anchorages.
\and monitoring of NAT() and Sixth
Fleet operations. Formal port calls around the Medi-
terranean littoral included visits by a cruiser and
destroyer to Athens and Istanbul, It was the first time
since World War II that Soviet combatants had visited
either Greece or Turkey. The first operational out-of-
area deployment of the USSR's first v/sTot. aircraft
carrier, the Kiev, also occurred in I97g. T ce during
the year, the Kiev deployed from the Northern Fleet to
the Mediterranean where it spent a total of 53 days!
The Kiev passed through the Nictlitcrrancan in 1976 C11 mule In it,:
home fleet but did riot linger during the pe.t.sage
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West Africa
Caribbean Sea
The Soviet naval presence in the Gulf of Guinea and
off the coast of West Africa continued to grow last
year, reaching a level about 14 percent higher than
that of 1977. Throughout much of 1978, the West
African contingent consisted of 9 to 11 ships?a diesel
attack submarine, one or two destroyers, an am-
phibious ship, a minesweeper, three or four replenish-
ment and support ships, an intelligence collector, and
one or more hydrographic ships. The contingent
diminished toward the end of the year, to 5 to 7 ships?
a destroyer, an amphibious ship, a minesweeper, and a
few auxiliaries
These ships generally wcrc inactive, spending most of
their time in port, at Luanda, Angola, or Conakry,
Guinea, and less often, at Cotonou, Benin. They
periodically transited among these ports, and two port
calls were made to Sao Tome.' The Soviet naval
presence at Conakry had not decreased by the end of
1978 despite growing indications that the Guinean
Government wanted to put some distance between
Guinea and the USSR.
The West African contingent does not yet appear to
have the status of a squadron in the Soviet naval
organizational structure. It does have some of the
characteristics ala squadron, but it is much smaller
than either the Soviet Indian Ocean or Mediterranean
Squadrons. f
The Soviet naval presence in the Caribbean increased
by 10 percent in 1978, primarily reflecting an
unusually long fall deployment (91 days versus a
normal 30 to 50 days). That deployment included a
Northern Fleet F-class submarine and four surface
vessels from the Black Sea Fleet?a Mod Kashin
guided-missile destroyer, two Krivak guided-missile
frigates, and an oiler. While in the Caribbedft the task
group visited Havana and Cienfuegos and conducted a
variety of training exercises alone and with Cuban
naval vessels. No Soviet combatants have been in the
Caribbean since December 1978.
Except for a salvage and rescue ship stationed at
Havana, the Soviet Navy does not permanently
maintain ships in the Caribbean Sea; instead, since
1969, a task group has deployed to the area about twice
a year. The makeup of the task group varies, but it
usually comprises two or three surface combatants and
an oiler, and sometimes a submarine
' A pace support ship not dirccily associated with the West African
contingent visited Dakar, Senegal, several times during :978, and
auxiliaries regularly call at the Canary Islands for provisions. (s)
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
The number of Soviet naval ship-days in the Atlantic
Ocean (excluding those in the southern Atlantic waters
off West Africa) was about the same as in 1977, while
the total for the Pacific Ocean was down by about 7
percent. The decrease in the Pacific was due to slightly
lower levels of deployment in several categories of
Thips?strategic submarim,s, surface combatants, and
hydrographic and space support ships.
In both oceans, the Soviet naval presence has for some
years consisted primarily of ballistic missile submarine
patrols, intelligence collection, hydrographic research,
and transits by other naval vessels to and from
operating areas. In the Atlantic. nuclear and diesel
attack submarines also represent a substantial part- -
about 20 percent?of the total. Many of these subma-
rine ship-days are spent transiting from the Northern
Fleet to the Mediterranean and back
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Outlook
High levels of naval activity during the first four
months of 1979, especially off thc coast of Southeast
Asia, almost guarantee that total Soviet ship-days in
distant areas will increase once again this year. As in
1978, the activity levels in individual areas arc likely to
fluctuate. Whatever the final level, when measured in
operational capability or potential political impact, the
Soviet naval presence in the first several months of the
year seems significantly more important than in the
past. It has included several of the newer, larger, and
more capable Soviet ships?for example, the Kiev and
the Minsk. Kara-class cruisers, and the Ivan Rogov,
the first of a new class of amphibious ships (t.PD). In
future years, we expect to sec such ships occasiorfally
deployed to distant areas. especially to the Mediterra-
nean but the Soviet Navy will be unable to maintain a
continuous presence of ships such as Kiev-class carri-
ers, for the fort:suable future.
Higher ship-day totals for 1979 arc likely to result
from unusual levels of activity in widely separated
areas of the world. The Soviet task groups in the South
and East China Seas monitoring Sino-Vietnarnese
hostilities and participating in the resupply of Vietnam
peabably will boost Pacific Ocean totals substantially.
The simultaneous deployment to the Mediterranean of
the Kiev and the Minsk, with associated combatants
and auxiliaries, produced an unusual flurry of activity
there. In late March, the Kiev departed the Mediterra-
nean to participate in annual spring exercises in the
North Atlantic before returning to the Northern Fleet.
At the same time, the Minsk, two Kara-class cruisers,
the Ivan Rogov, and a Boris Chilikin-class replenish- ?
ment oiler moved down the coast of West Africa and
Into the Indian Ocean en route to the Pacific Fleet. The
Minsk and some of its associated ships are paying a
series of calls to ports along the coast of Africa and
South Asia, and likely will spend several weeks with
the Indian Ocean Squadron during the transit, tempo-
rarily increasing ship-day totals in each of the areas
through which they pass.
Apart from this transient activity, the Soviet naval
presence off West Africa may drop to levels slightly
below those of 1978, particularly if worsening Soviet.
Guinean relations deny the Soviets access to Conakry's
port facilities. Similarly, Indian Ocean ship-days,
which were inflated in 1978 by support to lithiopia,
may be somewhat lower in 1979 unless the Indian
Ocean Squadron is permanently enlarged in response
to an enlarged US presence there. Caribbean Sea ship.
days may remain at or below the levet of past years; the
biannual Caribbean task force has not yet departed
Soviet waters
7
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Appendix
A Word About Methodology
To measure the Soviet naval presence in distant areas,
naval analysts developed the "ship-day" concept: one
ship away from Soviet home waters for onc day equals
one ship-day. Soviet mtva I ship-days can be aggregated
in a variety of ways to show levels of naval presence.
Ship-day computations have provided a reasonably
accurate basis for comparing the levels of Soviet naval
activity from year to year or in the different areas,
Untii recently, the makeup of Soviet naval contingents
deployed to distant areas changed little over time. and
the capabilities of ships within such categories as
"major surface combatants" or "amphibious shins"
were similar.
In the future, however, ship-day comparisons may
mask important changes in out-of-area deployments. If
larger and more capable ships deploy to distant areas,
simple ship-day totals may obscure qualitative changes
in the Soviet presence in areas like the Mediterranean
and the Indian Ocean. For example, in ship-day
comparisons, a 1.150-ton Poya-class light frigate is -
the statistical equivalent of a 43,000-ton Kiev-class
visrm. aircraft s;arrier inasmuch as both arc listed as
major surface combatants. Similarly, the 13,000-ton
Ivan Rogov would count for only as much as no 800-
ton Polnoeny medium landing ship. Under these -
conditions, new techniques will be needed to represent
:teeth a tcly the changes taking place in Soviet naval
deployment.
9
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