NID: MEXICO : ELECTION POLITICS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00332190
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2019
• Case Number: F-2018-02576
• Publication Date: June 20, 1988

Approved for Release. 2019/05/13 C00332190
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Contents
NR Record
Special Analyses
Mexico: Election Politics 11
NR Record
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Special Analysis
MEXICO: Election Politics
Mexico's ruling institutional Revolutionary Party is facing one
of the toughest national elections in its 60-year history. The
opposition on both the left and right is challenging the PRI's
claim to represent the majority of Mexicans and its ability to
control the vote. The party remains assured of winning the
election�through manipulation if necessary�but probably will
face charges of frau�and oossibie demonstrations in the
postelection period.
The election, scheduled for 6 July, comes at an unprecedented low
point in the ruling party's popularity. More than six years of economic
deterioration, coupled with recent austerity measures, have eroded
the party's usual support, especially among organized labor.
Abstention reached nearly 80 percent in some recent state elections.
The PRI presidential candidate, Carlos Salinas, has been unable to
inspire enthusiasm among voters and is unpopular because, as
budget secretary, he initiated many austerity measures.
The Opposition Challenge
Former ruling-party dissident Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who leads the
leftist opposition, has mounted a surprisingly strong presidential
campaign. The son of Mexico's most revered postrevolutionary
president, Cardenas has special appeal to peasants who benefited
from his father's agrarian reform; as
many as 100,000 peasants who belong to the ruling party in Mexico
State support Cardenas. His populist platform, which champions
labor rights and calls for a debt moratorium, also attracts voters tired
of continuing government calls for economic sacrifice
Cardenas got a significant boost recently when socialist candidate
Heberto Castillo withdrew from the race. Castillo commanded only a
limited number of votes, but his withdrawal has a significant symbolic
impact in unifying most of the left. With one less presidential
candidate, moreover, the ruling party will have more difficult
employing its usual strategy of dividing the opposition.
The right wing also has mounted a strong challenge to the PRI.
The candidate of the conservative National Action Party, Manuel
Clouthier, is a charismatic businessman who has run an aggressive
campaign, promoting civil disobedience. Cardenas's surging
popularity and bickering among conservatives have nevertheless
weakened Clouthier's bid.
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Ruling-Party Strategy
The ruling party is in little danaer of losina the election
Party leaders
apparently recognize, however, that the prolonged economic crisis
and the opposition's popularity make the usual overwhelming PRI
victory unacceptable, and they have publicly indicated they will settle
for what they consider a modest malority of about 60 oercent
Events immediately after the election probably will pose a more
difficult challenge for the PRI. Supporters of both Cardenas and
Clouthier anticipate electoral fraud and plan mass demonstrations
and civil disobedience; Cardenas's supporters numbered 100,000 at
a rally in Mexico City this spring. A successful, coordinated protest
campaign will further damage the party's reputation at home and
abroad and could spark violent confrontations with the authorities.
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