CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02003060
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 11, 1951

Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
Nkspi -1447)1r4-0=VE I
11 May 1951
Copy No. e -
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLAF.III.
1 1 DECIASS1HED
te5
CLASS. CHANGED ?a Th '
NEXT RaViEW DATE: _
AUTH: FIR 7 iota.
DATi. IlEVIEWai*
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
'1111.
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
ECRET
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. India and Ceylon favor Communist participation in Japanese peace
treaty negotiations (page 3).
2. Comments by US Embassy Moscow on Soviet note concerning Japanese
peace treaty (page 1).
3. Comment on recent developments regarding Soviet and American
wheat for India (page 4).
3.5(c)
FAR EAST
5. Communist China seeks rubber from Indonesia (page 5 3.3(h)(2)
NEAR EAST
6. Iran rejects UK request for arbitration of oil issue (page 6).
7. Syria appeals to Egypt for aid in Syrian-Israeli border dispute
(page 7).
8. Some improvement noted in Egypt's attitude toward Anglo-Egyptian
defense issue (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French Communists reportedly prepare new strike wave (page 9).
11. Schuman Plan ratification delayed by French political situation
(page 10).
2
TOP-SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
4 11 Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
GENERAL
1. India and Ceylon favor Communist participation in Japanese psace.
ntreatygotiations:
and neither
relations.
3.5(c)
According to various diplomatic sources, India
and Ceylon feel that, in order to ensure a
lasting settlement, every effort should be made
to obtain Soviet and Communist Chinese par-
ticipation in Japanese peace treaty negotia-
tions. India is opposed to Japanese rearrna- 3.3(h)(2)
ment, believing that Japan's security should
be guaranteed by the UN. On the other hand,
Ceylon thinks that Japan, as a sovereign
nation, has the right to look to its self-defense
individually as well ds collectively. Both
countries are opposed to any treatment which
will leave bitterness amongst the Japanese,
objects to the development of normal Japanese commercial
2. Comments by US Embassy Moscow on Soviet note concerning Japanese
peace treaty:
The US Embassy in Moscow believes that the
Soviet Foreign Office felt obliged to come 3.3(h)(2)
forth with comment in response to the draft
Japanese peace treaty presented by the US
on 29 March. The timing of the Soviet note is largely due, in the Em-
bassy's opinion, to a desire to place the USSR's position on record
before further developments occur. The Embassy considers that (a)
the Soviet demand for a Four-Power Council of Foreign Ministers in
June or July may be designed to "keep the Council of Foreign Ministers
pot boiling for propaganda purposes" in anticipation of a possible failure
of the Paris negotiations, and (b) the omission of Francs from the pro-
posed meeting is noteworthy. Of the five specific proposals concerning
the peace treaty contained in the note, two are devoted to the Japanese
- 3 -
TQP-SEeRET
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
T6P SECRET
economy and trade. The Embassy reels that aside from the propaganda
aspects of these proposals, it is also possible that the USSR, con-
sciously or unconsciously, is betraying its concern over the economic
situation of Red China if traditional Japanese economic relationships
in Asia are not re-established.
Comment: Although in the past the Soviet
position regarding the inclusion of France in a Council of Foreign
Ministers on a Japanes,, peace treaty has been ambiguous, it appears
that the USSR has never specifically proposed that France should join
the US, USSR, Great Britain and China in drafting the treaty. On the
other hand, the USSR has on several occasions made specific refer-
ences to the other four powers in this regard. Its latest note makes
It clear that the Soviet Union believes France is not entitled to a major
role in the preparation of the peace treaty on the grounds that it did
not formally declare war on Japan and was not a signatory of the
Japanese surrender document. (A Free French representative actually
signed the surrender document).
3. Comment on recent developments regarding Soviet and American wheat
for India:
According to the New Delhi radio, Prime
Minister Nehru told an applauding Parliament on 10 May that Soviet
vessels were already on their way to India with the first shipments
of a total of 50, 000 tons of wheat recently purchased from the USSR
for cash. Deliveries of the full amount were to be completed by the
end of June. .At the same time, Nehru announced to Parliament that,
in his opinion, the two food bills now before the US Congress had no
political or discriminatory conditions attached to them and that "on
these grounds" there should be no objection to accepting either of
them. He added that he preferred the terms of the House bill because
they were simpler.
Stro;:g representations were necessary to get
Nehru to make the above statement on the US food bills. It is note-
worthy that, in making the statement, Nehru maintained his independence
TOP
- 4 -
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
of US favors by supporting the House bill, which provides wheat to
India solely on a loan basis. The final terms of a US loan may be the
determining factor governing an Indian decision to accept US or Com-
munist offers.
3.5(c)
� 5. Communist China seeks rubber from Indonesia:
The Government of Indonesia is considering
Communist China's offer to purchase 50, 000
tons of rubber. In conversations with the 3.3(h)(2)
- 5 -
TOP-SEeRET
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
US Ambassador in Djakarta, Indonesian Foreign Minister Subardjo
stated that the Chinese were offering rice and tungsten in payment for
the rubber.
Comment: This approach to Indonesia, to-
gether with a similar offer to Ceylon, is testimony to the strong efforts
of the Chinese Communists to find new sources of rubber supplies as
an alternative to Malayan supplies. In view of Indonesia's declared
willingness to sell rubber to Orbit as well as non-Orbit countries,
Indonesia is more likely to accept the Chinese Communist offer than
Ceylon. In any case, Indonesia lacks the administrative machinery
to prevent Orbit purchases of privately-owned rubber, which consti-
tutes the overwhelming bulk of its rubber output.
NEAR EAST
Iran rejects UK request for arbitration of oil issue:
3.5(c)
The UK request to Iran for arbitration of the
oil issue was formally rejected by the Iranian
Ambassador in London on 8 May. He informed
the British Foreign Office that Iran will pro-
ceed with its oil nationalization program and will not submit to inter-
national arbitration. According to the UK Embassy in Tehran, the
Anglo-Iranian Oil Company's demand for arbitration was inspired by
a message from the Shah indicating that Iranian Prime Minister Mossadeq
would welcome such a demand because it would enable him to procrasti-
nate. Mossadeq is understood, however, to have expressed astonishment
at the demand for arbitration.
Comment: Mossadeq's rejection of the UK
demand for arbitration is consistent with his previous stand. It was
probably conditioned by the consideration that Iran could not accept
arbitration under the terms of the 1933 concession and still maintain
that the concession was invalid. Whether the UK action was taken at
the Shah's instigation or not, it will probably have the effect of forcing
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
Mossadeq to delineate his plans on the oil issue more clearly. To
, date, he has indicated that he will not take drastic action immediately
and that he intends eventually to replace Anglo-Iranian Oil Company
technicians with Iranians.
7. Syria appeals to Egypt for aid in Syrian-Israeli border dispute:
3.5(c)
US Ambassador Caffery in Cairo has been 3.3(11)(2)
informed by the Egyptian Foreign Minister
that Syria has appealed to Egypt for aid in
connection with the current Syrian-Israeli
border troubles, and that Egypt is "on the spot" and mus do something
about the appeal. The Foreign Minister stated that since the UN is not
taken seriously in his part of the world, he was requesting Ambassador
Caffery to submit an urgent appeal to the US to take some positive
action. The Foreign Minister indicated that he was taking the matter
up personally with Caffery so as not "to throw monkey wrenches into
the machinery."
Comment: The type of aid Syria has requested
from Egypt is not defined. Syria would logically turn to Egypt, the most
influential of the Arab countries, since Egypt has long supported an
independent Syria against proposals for incorporating it with Iraq and
Jordan.
3.3(h)(2)
The serious concern felt by the Arab States generally
over the current Syrian-Israeli border incidents is underlined by the
fact that a special meeting of the Arab League Political Committee is
scheduled to meet in Damascus on 14 May to discuss the border situation.
8. Some im rovement noted in E
defense issue:
A*
Vs attitude toward An
lo
tian
The US Ambassador in Cairo reports that the
situation involving the Anglo-Egyptian treaty 3.3(h)(2)
negotiations has taken "a momentary turn for
- 7 -
Top -__sEeRET.
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
the better." Egyptian Foreign Minister Salaheddin recently told the
US Ambassador that if the forthcoming British reply allows Egypt "to
save some face," the Egyptian public will be told that the door to
further discussions is still open and Salaheddin will then go to London
for subsequent negotiations. Salaheddin indicated that Egypt would be
prepared for discussions throughout the summer but that if no progress
had been made by November, Egypt would denounce the 1936 Treaty.
The US Ambassador believes that the King's desire to prevent a break-
down in negotiations at this time is the main reason for the present
change in the Egyptian attitude toward the treaty problem.
Comment King :Farouk's opposition to a
break in Anglo-Egyptian treaty discussions, coupled with Salaheddin's
more moderate attitude toward the defense problem, should help con-
siderably in bringing about a continuation of the talks. Nevertheless,
a wide gap remains between British and Egyptian thinking on the defense
issue.
EASTERN EUROPE
3.5(c;
-8
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
---lAtoP-SECRET
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French Communists reportedly prepare new strike wave:
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
0
(3.3(h)(2)
\ a widespread strike move-
ment will probably be unleashed following the
Congress of the General Workers' Confederation
at the end of May. Although this renewed strike activity is planned as
part of the electoral campaign, the Communist Party expects to pursue
the strikes primarily within the framework of economic demands, with
such political tie-ins as conditions warrant. The predominance of
economic over political slogans was particularly noticeable at this years'
Communist May Day demonstration in Paris. Intensified French Com-
munist propaganda at the plant level in support of both economic and
political objectives has been making progress since the Easter strikes,
and several well-informed non-Communist labor leaders have affirmed
that a concentrated "unity of action" program on "exclusively worker
demands" would force the Socialist and Christian industrial unions to
cooperate or lose their following.
Comment: A new round of wage demands is
to be expected soon, because the steady rise in the price level is rapidly
nullifying benefits gained by the March strikes. The Communists seem,
however, to have picked Xune for fomenting new strikes with an eye to
political rather than to economic aims, since the pre-election govern-
ment will not be in a position to commit its successor to a new wage
program. Should the Communists give the strikes a too pronounced
political coloring, however, labor's readiness to cooperate would be
3.3(h)(2)
�
- 9 -
Ter_sEeRET
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060
sharply checked because of its wariness of being exploited by the
French Communist Party,
11. Schuman Plan ratification delayed by French political situation:
According to the US Embassy in Paris, al-
though the bill for French ratification of
the Schuinan Plan was submitted to the Cabinet
on 9 May prior to presentation to the National
Assembly at the end of this week, parliamentary action will be post-
poned until sometime after the June elections and the organization of
the new Parliament -- that is, until at least mid-August. The delegales
of the six participating countries have informally exchanged ratification
documents, but the submission of the Schuman Plan to the German
Bundestag in early Tune is doubtful in view of the delay in French action.
The Netherlands plans ratification before the end of Parliament's session
on 20 July; the ratifications of the other Benelux countries are being
held up by technical difficulties. As yet, the Embassy has received no
indication of the action to be taken by Italy.
Comment:, The opposition in France can be
expected to pose a serious threat regardless of the composition of the
next Assembly. German ratification now appears probable in view of
recent trade union approval of the Plan and the failure of the Socialists
to gain appreciably in recent provincial elections. However, undue
delay elsewhere may prejudice the present favorable outlook in Germany.
- 10 -
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003060