CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02003061
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 16, 1951

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16 May 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
2. 7
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS,
pECLASS!FIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR
DATE.V 41 r:VIFWER:
TS S tqoaC01
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
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2. Europeans increasingly concerned over defense burden (page 3). ivroo
FAR EAST
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5. Creation of a Vietnam army is being delayed (page 5), --1-71696"
3 3(h)(2)
6. Morale among non-Communist Vietnamese in North Vietnam is 1=71/pi,e-
falling (page 6).
7. Communists expand activities in Burma (page 6), f3v-frxrA�
!omit,*
8. Chinese Nationalists in Burma preparing to attack in Yunnan4page 7).(uutiot-
9. Prospective Indonesian trade agreement with China indicated (page 8).
NEAR EAST
EASTERN EUROPE
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12. Yugoslays reluctant on military talks with Greece (page 10).4G-0,15-
WESTERN SUROPE
13. French deviationists victims of hooligans (page n.).
14. Electoral alliance of neS-Fascists and monarchists in Italy reportedly
encountering difficulties451,11)*
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GENERAL
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2. Europeans increasingly concerned over defense burden:
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The Dutch NATO delegate, Starkenborgh, has
complained to US representative Spofford
that NATO nations are in a difficult position
because they are being tied to a level of
defense expenditures which they may be unable to maintain and which
makes them increasingly dependent on the US. He claims that there
has been a considerable "regression" since last fall in the confidence
of the other NATO members in the US attitude on burden-sharing, and
that some countries, particularly the starter ones, cannot "go on"
until they know just what the "burden-sharing exercise" will amount to.
Spofford. comments that this attitude is increasingly reflected among
all Mikopean NATO countries, but that there will be no markedly adverse
change in the attitude of NATO countries toward their defense commit-
ments ff they are assured of adequate US aid.
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Comment: In addition to the natural
reluctance on the part of the Western European countries to
implement their original defense commitments without sacri-
ficing economic recovery, the Dutch delegate's comments also
reflect a widespread,fear that the US may subordinate Europe's
inteiests to these of other areas; -
USSR
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FAR EAST
5. Creation of a Vietnam army is being delayed:
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An important French official in Indochina has
told US Minister Heath that delay in the develop-
ment .4 a Vietnam National Army results from
(a)lack of trained cadres and (b) lack of man-
power in general. He stated it was not true that unlimited military man-
power was available; on the contrary, very few Vietnamese were willing
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to serve under the present inconsistent leadership. The difficulty
of quickly tratning junior officers, the absence of a corps of senior
officers, and the lack of planning for supporting services were cited
t support a c nclusion that fif (,en years will be required to build an
effective Vietnam army.
Comment: The improbability of a rapid
creation of an efficient Vietnam army will preclude an early solution
of the situation in Indochina. Delays have resulted not only from the
abeve-mellitioned problems but from a lack of genuine French support.
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6,, Morale among non-Communist Vietnamese in North Vietnam is falling:
the morale of non-Communist
Vtetnamese in the rebel-held areas of North
Vietnam is at a low ebb and their faith that
the Bao Dai government will provide a solution to the Indochinese
situation is completely destroyed. Similarly, their faith in the US is
decreasing as the Communists make effective propaganda against
"apparent US policy."
Comment: US mtlitary aid to Indochina--
which the Vietnamese believe strengthens Primarily the French'
has been much greattr than US economic aid, if which the Viet-
namese are the principal beneficiaries. Many Vietnamese believe
that the US, by extending aid on this basis, is contributing to a
policy of French colonialism.
7. Communists expand activities in Burma:
The US Embassy in Rangoon reports a
perceptible stepping up of Communist
activities in Burma. Overt activities
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have been expanded to include the development of a "People's Democratic
Front," agitation for the establishment of a youth organization, for-
mation of an All-Burma Chinese Congress and the launching of a new
signature campaign calling for a "Big Five Peace Pact." Meanwhile,
the underground Burma Communist Party continues its efforts to
incorporate otherMsurgeng groups. The Embassy comments that the
inter-relation of members of the various front organizations and the
obvious intensification of overt activities indicate the existence of a
hard core C mmunist leadership and that the Communist organizational
work in Burma is nearing completion and giving way to a program of
mass indoctrination.
�8. cl2L-T221..Tatioin Burma preparing to attack in Yunnan:
The US Embassy in 'Taipei has been informed
by a high official of the Chinese Nationalist
Foreign Office that he has received a telegram
from the leaders of the Nationalist troops in
Burma stating that preparations were being 3.3(h).(2)
made for their departure "very soon." These
troops, he stated, would join Nationalist
guerrillas operating in Yunnan.
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The above information is supported by a report
from US Embassy Rangoon which indicates that the Nationalists have
recently deployed along the Yunnan border, where they are in position
to launch their "long expected thrust across the border. The Embassy
adds, however, that Burmese officials are concerned that Nationalist
activities may lead to a Chinese Communist invasion of Burma's border
areas.
Comment: The Nati nalist troops in Burma,
recently reported as numbering 4000, are well armed and equipped
anct could provide valuable assistance to the anti-Communist guerrilla
movement in Yunnan. The Chinese Communists, however, have built
up a counter force, estimated as high as 50, 000 men, along the Sino
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/ Burma borderi Should the Nationalists be forced to retreat back into
Burma, it is probable that the Communists will follow in hot pursuit.
9. Pros ective Indonesian trade reement with China indicated:
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The Counselor of the Indonesian Embassy in
Washington has indicated to State Department
officials that the trade arrangements his govern-
ment is contemplating with Communist China
may represent a complete trade agreement and that part of the deal
under consideration involves 'Indonesian rubber in exchange for Chinese
rice and tungsten. He added that he had no idea of the qtAntities
involved.
The Department observes that Indonesia claims
to require 200, 000 tons of rice, for which, :under current prices, it
wouk1,13robably be forced to exchange about 40, 000 tons of rubber. In
recent negotiations with the US, the Indonesian Government claimed it
could not command, or control significant quantities of rubber and,
therefore, contracted to sell to the US only the2smalLoutput lof govern-
ment-owned estates (1200 tons monthly). If Indonesia is now con-
templating a trade agreementWrth Communist China involving a fairly
large quantity of rubber, it is apparent to the Devitment that the
Indonesian Government has not acted intelligently or in good faith in
one ,of the two negotiations.
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EASTERICZUROPE
12. Yugoslays reluctant on military talks with Greece: 3.3(h)(2)
The Yugoslav Minister in Athens has
reiterated to US Minbassy officials the
realization of his government that a Soviet
attack on Greece, Germany or Austria would
necessarily involve Yugoslav participation in the ensuing hbstilities.
The Yugoslav Minister seemed satisfied for the present with vague Greek
assurances that, in the evegt-of an attack on Yugoslavia, Greece would
fulfill its UN obligations. He appeared reluctant, however, to push
forward detailed Greek-Yugoslav military conversations because of
Cominform propaganda charges, but declared that ccInversations must
be undertaken rapidly if an attack seemed imminent. He expressed
agreement with the view that, while the USSR might attack at any moments:
requiring urgent Western defense preparations, the greatestZanger would
come next year, pfter Western military strength and unity had made
impressive progress but before they had become preponderant. The
Yugoslav clip). mat attached great importance to evidences of growing
disaffection in the Satellites which, in his opinion, will render them
constantly less reliable as military instruments for the USSR.
Comment: The Yugoslav Government may be
delaying detailed military conversations with Greece in order first,to
ascertain the outcome of current military negotiations with the Western
powers, estimating that any agreement with Greece should await overall
commitments made with the US, UK and France.
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WESTERN EUROPE
13. French deviationists victims of hooligan4c.
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Darius LeCorre, leader of the "independent"
Communist movemett,in France, was beaten
badly by Communist hooligans who broke up
a Paris press conference in which he was engaged
on 11 May. A LeCorre lieutenant was later assaulted by a gang at Nancy.
Meanwhile, LeCorre has emphasized that the domestic policy of the "inde-
pendents" supports "conanagement of enterprises" and its foreign policy
supports "general and simultaneous disarmament." He also reiterated
that the group will present candidates in 30 departments and stated that
the electoral campaign would be spearheaded by the formerly clandestine
newspaper "La Lutte. "
Comment: These are the first French Communist
Party (PCF) attempts to use violence against the new "independent" group,
and are indicative of the seriousness with which the PCF regards the
group. There is, however, no indication as yet that LeCorre's organi-
zation has achieved a wide following. '
14. Electoral alliance of neo-Fascists and monarchists in Italy reportedly
encountering difficulties: 3.3(h)(2)
The press of the neo-Fascist Italian Social
Movement amp is pessimistic regarding the
party's prospects in the forthcoming local
elections. The alliance on which the MSI
a,nd the monarchists have agreed at a national level has fallen through
in many important cities. According to the neo-Fascists, this is the
result of Christian Democratic pressure on possible financial backers.
Comment: This is the first indication of
weakness in the electoral alliance of the MSI and the monarchists0
he alliance to be in a position to
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profit at the elttions from the dissatisfaction of conservative groups
with the reform program of the Christian Demotrats. Steps may have
been taken to weaken extreme rightist movements by threatening their
actual and potential financial supporters with the loss of government
contracts and subsidies� Government officials, including Premier de
Gasperi and Interior Minister Scelba, have stated during the current
election campaign that not only the Communists, but also the neo-
Fascists, are to be-regarded as enemies of democracy and peace.
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