CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/06/12

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
02003069
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
8
Document Creation Date: 
March 18, 2019
Document Release Date: 
March 28, 2019
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Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 12, 1951
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15587376].pdf327.92 KB
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Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 12 June 1951 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS, DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO; TS & ,�r NEXT FIEVIINIDATE.� C - 1 AUTI-I: I PAI:...r.a.,4.Vr Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) � pproved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 'EUKET SUMMARY _EAR EAST 1. Hong Kong official "not optimistic" over Korean peace prospects (page 3). 2. Bao Dal's popularity in Vietnam apparently increasing (page 3). NEAR EAST 3. Oil Company plans to offer financial assistance to Iran (page 4). EASTERN EUROPE 4. Collectivization constitutes serious problem in Soviet Orbit (page 5). 5. Additional peasant demonstrations reported in Bulgaria (page 5). 7. Yugoslav officials react favorably to senate hearings on US foreign policy (page 7). WESTERN EUROPE 8. French Communists concede election los6es (page 7). LATIN AMERICA 9. Panamanian Government to penalize ships violating UN embargo, (page 8). 2 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 .� Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 TEre�IlitertEr FAR EAST 1. Hong Kong official "not optimistic" over pea�ospects Geoffrey Aldington, Political Advisor to the3.3(h)(2) Hong Kong Government, has told US Consul General McConaughy that he sees"no sign of war weariness" among the Chinese, nor of a disposition on the part of the Communist leadership to "come to terms." Aldixigton believes that Peiping has sold the Chinese people on a "holy war" to defend China's borders and had "added greatly to its stature" by demonstrating its ability to "fight a foreign war against arpowerful enemy." McConaughy, who feels that the British official has "greatly overestimated" popular support of Peiping's intervention in Korea, states that "almost all" mainland in- formants agree that opposition to Peiping is "very general" among all Classes except younger students and the regime's own functionaries. Commexitn The basis of Aldington's estimate is not known. Available ev-ide indicates that p*pular support for Peiping 's domestic and foreign policies is not widespread. However, Peiping's control over the populace appears to be firm, and the regime's new campaign for funds to buy heavy equipment for Korea indicates that the Communists intend to force the Chinese people to contribute increasingly to the Korean venture. 2. Bao DaUs popularity in Vietnam 3.3(h)(2) US Minister Heath reports that the presence of 35, 000 "highly interested if not deliriously enthusiastic" spectators at the 6 June commemora- tion of the unification of the Annamese Kingdom marked this festival as a striking success in contrast with the relative apathy shown on a similar occasion a year ago. During a parade of yough delegations and Vietnamese troops before Bao Dat and Premier Huu, the French remained discreetly in the background and no French troops paraded. Heath believes that the size of the crowd indicates - 3 - ID? SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 Bao Dal's increased popularity and testifies to the authority and organizing ability of Premier Tran Van Huu's.givernment. Comment: This development is the more significant in that Bao Dal's popularity has always been lower in Saigon that in other areas of Vietnam. The favorable popular response testi- fies also to increasingly harmonious relations between Bao Dai and Premier Tran Van Huu, NEAR EAST 3. Oil Company plans to offer financial assistance to Iran: 3.3(h)(2) The UK Foreign Office has indicated to the US Embassy in London that the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company will offer some financial assistance to Iran at the: start of the forthcoming negotia- tions, if in turn the government will agree not to take any provocative action in the oil areas in connection with implementing the oil nation- alization law during the negotiations. The Embassy reports that the British Foreign Office has become concerned over the recent increase in anti-British and anti-AIOC propaganda in Iran. Comment: Prime Minister Mossadeq, who is seriously concerned ver his government's straightened financial circumstances, probably will be tempted by the offer, particularly since he himself does not want to take any step which would prevent a peaceful solution of the matter with AMC. The danger remains, however, that Mossadeq will not be able to control events in the oil fields. Although he himself has exhibited an increasingly moderate tone on the matter in discussing it with Ambassador Grady, his govern3.3(h)(2) ment colleagues have continued to stir up the country with itheir violent speeches in favor of nationalization. 4 -TOP-SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c; 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 TC,r) SECRET EASTERN EUROPE 4. Collectivization constitutes serious problem in Soviet Orbit 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) Reporting on the recent action of the Polish Politburo dissolving a Party District Com- mittee for agricultural collectivization abuses, US Embassy Warsaw comments that this action is symptomatic of the serious doctrinal and practical problems raised by collectivization in the Soviet (*bit. The Embassy notes as evidence of Communist pre-occupation with this problem z (1) recent modifica- tions of the collectivization program in Poland and Hungary; and (2) airing of collectivization difficulties in Czechoslovakia during the recent Party upheavals. Comment Collectivization has been used by the Communists to release manpower for industrial expansion and also as a means of controlling the peasantry. While the former objective has been achieved in part, control of the peasant, particularly in the European satellites, remains a serious problem. This is illustrated, by recent steps taken in Bulgaria, which is 52% collectivized, to organize a Party control apparatus within the Ministry of Agriculture to insure the proper'. functioning of Bulgaria's agricultural production. 5. Additional peasant detcnonstrations_Lesated in Bulgaria 3.3(h)(2) The Turkish press and radio during the past week have reported simultaneous anti- Communist peasant demonstrations through- out Bulgaria. The US Consulate in Istanbul states that "uprisings in Bulgaria have been partial", confirmed" by Bulgarian immigra ts interrogated in Turkey who state that demonstra- tions took place in the widely separated cities of Shuman, Pleven and Svilengrad late in May. The immigrants also stated that anti-regime pamphlets have been recently distributed in -5 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 GI' SECRET large Bulgarian towns. 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) 6 Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c) 0 � Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 mutua" 7. Yu oslav officials react favorably_talenate hearings on S fOrein. po cy: 3.3(h)(2) Ambassador Allen reports that bighrugoslav officials have generally reacted favorably to the current debate on US foreign policy and have expressed confidence that the administra- tion's policy will be vindicated. Yugoslav leaders have followed with particular interest and approval Senator Fulbright's view that US foreign policy should be based on opposition to aggression and his op- position to MacArthur's inclination to view all Marxists alike. Ambassa� dor Allen feels that the debate will have salutary results in Yugoslavia by convincing the Yugolsavs that US policy is based squarely on opposi- tion to aggression and that the US is supporting rearmament solely for defensive purposes. WESTERN EUROPE 8. French Communists concede election losses: 3.3(h)(2) The French Communist Party (PCF) estimated that, because of the new electoral law, it will lose about 40 of the 180 seats it controlled in the last Assembly; therefore, it is concentrat- ing on obtaining a large popular vote in order to retain the propaganda value of the claim that the PCF is the leading popular force in France. The PCF is expected to intensify, some time after the elections, its efforts to disrupt French economic recovery and defense efforts, and also to try to "create conditions" for the establishment of a govern- ment which would dissociate France from NATO. Comment: The PCF has been encouraged by recent evidence that inflation has increased popular susceptibility to Communist propaganda. Party leaders will attempt to turn this at- traction totthe PCF economic program into acceptance of Communist political aims. Despite the favorable reaction of the French working class to Communist labor policy as a result of the successful March 1951 - 7 - TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 RA' SECRET strikes, the French people probably will continue to distinguish sharply between PCF economic and political policies. LATIN AMERICA 9. Panamanian Government to penalize ships violating UN embargo: 3.3(h)(2) Following a US request, the Foreign Minister of Panama stated that his government would report to the UN Additional Measures Com- mittee, prior to 18 June, the penalties which Panama would apply to ships of Panamanian registry violating the UN embargo. Comment: The subtraction of ships under Panamanian registry from the Western flag vessels carrying strategic materials to Communist China would be a substantial contribution to the effectiveness of the UN embargo, since the Panamanian merchant marine isc one of the largest (approximately 900) in the4vorld. Ef- fective enforcement of penalties, however, might reduce the number of ships registered in Panama and thereby cut into the government's revenue from registry and property taxes. Consequently, the degree of enforcement will be a further test of the cooperativeness-pf the newly installed Arose mena administration. - 8 - Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2003069 3.5(c)