Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
April 15, 2019
Document Release Date: 
April 22, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 15, 1951
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15603093].pdf394.75 KB
Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 1 vr k,n.E., I 15 Aug 1951 Copy No. C CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLAS DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: NEXT REVIEW DATE. AUTH� R (-1 41_1: 3.5(c) DAT VIEWER:. 3.5(c) Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 SUMMARY GENERAL Comment on Soviet participation in the Japanese peace treaty conference (page 3). 2. Egyptian Foreign Minister planning abrogation of treaty in October (page 3). FAR EAST 3. Chinese Communist intent to invade Burma is reported (page 4)0 SOUTH ASIA Indian Home Minister wishes to resign over war crisis (page 4). EASTERN EUROPE 5. Trieste compromise suggested (page 5). 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) WESTERN EUROPE 7. French critical of Acheson proposals for German rearmament (page '7). 8. New treason law would restrict Allied information in Germany (page 7). 90 Bumper wheat crop relieves pressure on Spanish Government (page 8). TO RET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) 3.5(c) fkp.proved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 GENERAL Comment on Soviet participation in the Japanese 'peace treaty conference: The Soviet decision to attend the Japanese peace conference is an indication of concern over Western plans to proceed without the USSR if necessary1 it is also a sign of Soviet inability to hinder the con- clusion of the treaty and to prevent widespread adherence to it. The con- ference will offer the USSR the opportunity to exploit objections to the joint US-UK sponsored draft held mainly by E;ar Eastern nations over questions such as reparations, rearmament and Chinese representation. 3.5(c) 2. Effvntian Foreiffn Minister Planning abrogation of treaty in October: 3.3(h)(2) � The Egyptian Foreign Minister has informed the � US AMbassador in Cairo that he does not intend to abrogate the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty during the present parliamentary session but to wait proba- bly until Octobet The British Ambassador has been ,instructed to intitnate to the Egyptian authorities -- in ease there is danger of an early explosion� that progress is being made on the study of a "new approach" to the defense of the Middle East. Conment: This delay in abrogating the treaty beyond the August date that the Foreign Minister had previously mentioned, would seem to reflect the influence of the King, who does not want to have the negotiations with the British broken off. The "new approach" being stud- ied by Britain is probably the Middle East theater command proposal now under discusision in the Standing Group of NATO. This proposal envisages a multilateral defense setup for the Eastern Mediterranean under British command,. Britain evidently hopes that if it offers to in- clude Egypt in a regional defense pact, Egypt may agree to foreign partici- pation in Canal defenses. 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 � � FAR EAST . Chinese Communist intent to invade Burma is reported: 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) /the Chinese Communists are planning to invade the Burmese state of Kengtung (see attached map). Some 21, 000 Chinese Communist troops reportedly are concentrated along the northern border of Kengtung, with 2, 000 stationed farther north near the Burma Road. The informant states that the plan envisages a "combined attack by Chinese and Burmese Communists." Comment: Unsupported reports and rumors that the Chinese Communists will invade Burma have been rife in that country for several months. The Peiping regime may well have stimulated such specu- lation in order to keep the Chinese community in Burma subservient and to increase pressure on the Burmese Government. According to reliable reports, in recent months the Chinese Communists have stationed from 20,000 to 30, 000 troops near the Burmese border just north of Kengtung, and latest information indicates that their numbers may have been increased. In June, Chinese Nationalist forces, possibly numbering over 10, 000, invaded Yunnan across the northern Kengtung bor- der. This: group was badly defeated by the Communists and driven back into Kengtung. It is plausible that a Communist force of 15, 000 to 20, 000 has followed the Nationalists to the border and is planning to cross the border on the pretext of destroying these Nationalist remnants. Bunnese'forces in the area in question are negligible. SOUTH ASIA Indian Home Minister wishes to resign over war crisis: 3.3(h)(2) In early August, Indian Home Minister Rajagopalachari reportedly told a south Indian member of Parliament that he wanted to resign Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 TILT 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) from his post to avoid the blot that would fall on his public career if. an Indo-Pakistani war broke out. Previously, the Indian press had reported his desire to resign for reasons of health. Comment: The Home Minister, himself a south Indian, is one of the country's most capable and most highly respected statesmen. The recent resignation of India's Communications Minister, as well as the requests of Prime Minister Nehru and the Education Minister to be relieved of duties on two top policy-Making committees of the Congress Party, strongly suggest that they also wish to dissociate themselves from any actions of the increasingly militant Congress Party that may lead to war with Pakistan. The Communications and Education Ministers are Moslems. EASTERN EUROPE 5. Trieste compromise suggested: 3.3(h)(2) Tito has informed US Ambassador Allen that the the Yugoslav Government is most anxious to settle the Trieste question because it remains the outstanding problem in Yugoslav relations with the West, and its settlement would materi- ally strengthen the common front against Comin- form aggression. Tito offered three alternative solutions for settlement of the Trieste issue: (a) the maintenance of the status quo (inter- preted by Allen to mean the division of Trieste along present zonal bound- aries rather than a continuation of the present military regime); (b) the es- tablishment of a Zone B autonomous regime with provisions for minority rights; or (c) a territorial exchange by which Yugoslavia would relinquish the coastal district of Capodistria in exchange for "some Slovene villages in Zone A'1,.� 3.3(h)(2) 5 TOP RET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 .12.r.EA./11.2i I 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) Comment; The chief obstacle to a compromise settlement appears to be disposition of the predominantly Italian coastal cities in Zone B, which Tito's suggestion of giving up Capodistria does not cover. 3.3(h)(2) TOP CRET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 I C71-' WESTERN EUROPE 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) French critical of Acheson proposalsior German rearmament: The French Foreign Office has tentative reser- vations toward the speedy solution for the prob- lem of German rearmament proposed in the recent personal letter from Secretary of State Acheson to Foreign Minister Schuman. While the French admit that simul- taneous settlement of both political and military aspects of the problem is logical and desirable, they believe that unconditional political equality cannot be granted to the Bonn Government lest the Germans subsequently "find a way to welsh' on making a defense contribution. The French Foreign Office thinks also that public and political opinion is not yet prepared for such an "extreme" idea as German membership in NATO, and it fears that the proposal to discuss this point in September may arouse French opposition to other features of German rearmament. Comment: The basic French premise is that the political arrangement with the Federal Republic should not take the form of inter-governmental agreements, but rather of a confract between the supreme Allied authority in Germany and the Bonn Government. The recent German unilateral action increasing the export price on Ruhr coal, as well as the stiff bargaining position generally adopted by the Germans, is making the French Government increasingly wary of further concessions to Germany. New treason law would restrict Allied information in Germany: 3.3(h)(2) The US High Commission in Frankfurt points out that the new German treason law is much broader than similar laws in other countries and, although aimed at the Communists, might be in- terpreted to the detriment of the Allies. Inforcement of this law might pre- vent the volunteering of information to the Occupation Powers, especially to Allied intelligence agencies, and might permit the Allies to have access to information only in reserved fields. TOF2E6ET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) The Germans ignored an order to submit the law for the consideration of the Allied High Commission; they have, however, obeyed a further order to refrain from signing the law until consultations can take place. The High Commission is reluctant to disapprove the law, as this would mean delaying anti-Communist legislation. In- stead, it is considering passage of a High Commission law to give full pro- tection to communications and relations between the Germans and the Allies. Comment: The Germans want, as much as possible, to have the full range of powers of an independent nation when the new contractual arrangements go into effect. They intend to hold down special Allied occupation rights to a minimum, and are particularly con- cerned to maintain exclusive control over "state secrets. 9. Bumper wheat crop relieves pressure on Spanish Government: 3.3(h)(2) The Minister of Agriculture recently announced that Spain's 1951 crop prospects are the best in 50 years. Informed government sources say that this year's estimated total of four million metric tons, an increase of 30 per cent over the 1950 harvest figure, should fill Spain's current rations requirements. Comment: The record wheat harvest should ease public pressure on the government for improved rations of this staple food. The Spanish Government's frantic efforts in May and June to purchase foreign wheat reflected a fear that a reduction in the already meager wheat ration might become necessary, which would further aggravate the grave Internal situation then existing in Spain. By paying premium prices for this year's surplus wheat and by continuing to press for wheat credits under the US Export-Import Bank loans agreement, the Madrid government may be able to collect sufficient stocks to increase and improve the wheat ration without raising the quotas of forced deliveries. 8 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2014438 3.5(c) Approve; for Releaser 2019/04/02 CO2014438 1Y rL. NA INDIA Man Alenikai (1