CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/11/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02018010
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: November 15, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
15 November 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO. 31.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: M S
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AUTH; H 70-2
Office of Current IntelligencomE) REvIEwER:____3 5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Arab League delivers moderate note on German-Israeli restitu-
tion agreement (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Chinese Communist bomber strength may be greatly increased
(page 3).
3,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Thailand claims to have uncovered extensive Communist plot
(page 4).
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SOUTH ASIA
5. India and Pakistan may negotiate privately on Kashmir (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Rritain nlans annrnarti tn Dalritan iurnino participation (page 5).
7. 3.3(h)(2)
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Favorable West German court decision seen for EDC treaty
(page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Arab League delivers moderate note on German-Israeli restitution
agreement:
The formal note presented by the Arab
League to the Bonn government on 13
November limits itself to expressing
fear that ratification of the German-Israeli
reparations agreemen will strengthen Israel and suggesting that
German ratification will be followed by a breakoff of economic
relations. The League hopes that an economic rupture with Germany
can be avoided and "expects" the Bonn government to initiate diplo-
matic conversations on this subject with League members.
Comment: The note indicates that the Arabs
are not eager to cut economic relations with Germany. Since the
Bonn government probably intends to implement the agreement
negotiated with Israel, however, West Germany still faces the problem
of finding a formula for satisfying the Arabs. .
FAR EAST
2. Chinese Communist bomber strength may be greatly increased:
Between 22 October and14 November, 55
Soviet TU-2 conventional light bombers
flew from Vozdvizhenka and Khabarovsk
in the Soviet Union to Changchun in Manchuria.
At least eight of these aircraft have been
assigned o the Chinese Communist 10th Air Division at Nanking.
Comment:
the remainder of these aircraft will also be transferred to Chinese
Communist units. This would greatly increase the offensive capability
of the Chinese Communist Air Force, which had an estimated 300
TU-2 bombers.
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3.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Thailand claims to have uncovered extensive Communist plot:
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Documents seized during the recent arrests 3.3(h)(2)
in Bangkok allegedly reveal that Communists
were planning an armed uprising against
ttle government in late December. The
American Embassy comments that existence of the plot has not been
substantiated.
The Embassy reports that the arrests were
touched off by the detenti nn nf a 'Thai air fr,rc, nfrippr returning from
Britain who, was a
member of a ring selling secret documents to the Soviet Union.
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the Thai Government's action was directed primarily against dis-
gruntled junior military officers., It is now clear, however, that
regardless of whether or not a genuine plot existed, the great majority
of the 125 arrested were civilians known to be Communists or
Communist sympathizers.
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SECRET
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SOUTH ASIA
5. India and Pakistan may negotiate privately on Kashmir
India and Pakistan are preparing to hold
confidential negotiations in "a day or two"
aimed at settling the Kashmir question,
according to Sir Benegal Rau,
Sir Benegal indicated that a solution might
take the form of partition along the cease-fire line with a plebiscite
limited to the Vale of Kashmir, where the capital city of Srinagar is
located. (See map, page 6). He felt that although such a settlement
would create many problems for India and Pakistan, it was the only
practical solution.
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Comment: This proposal for a limited
plebiscite is a radical departure from the official position of the Indian
and Pakistani governments and from UN resolutions on the subject.
Individual Indian officials had previously indicated that a similar plan
would be the most realistic basis for settling the dispute.
Any India-Pakistan conference on Kashmir
faces the problem of achieving agreement on the disposition of troops
during a plebiscite, up to now the major stumbling block.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Britain plans approach to Pakistan on MEDO participation:
The British Government suggests inviting 3.3(h)(2)
Pakistan to become, a participating member
of the planning group working out details
of the projected Middle East Defense
Organization. The approach, which would be timed to coincide with
a similar approach to Iraq, would emphasize that Pakistani par-
ticipation would be welcomed by the sponsoring powers. India
would be informed of the MEDO proposals and of the conversations
with Pakistan.
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Scale 111,000,000
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CIA Reproduction
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ET
The Department of State has informed
London that it will support these moves.
Comment: Britain apparently considers
that circumstances are now morTravorable for securing a Pakistani
commitment to join in Western defense arrangements.
Pakistan has long desired to play a leading
role in the Middle East. It may not be willing to accept a position
in MEDO less than that accorded to Turkey, which is one of the
sponsoring powers.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Favorable West German court decision seen for EDC treaty:
the West German 'Constitutional Court
will rule in favor of the European Defense
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� Community when hearings on the treaty's constitutionality are
completed next month. They discount the reports emanating from
some West German politicians that the court is "determined" to
declare the treaty unconstitutional but note that Bonn is "jittery"
over this possibility.'
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