CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02018018
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 18, 1952

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//W. SECUR INFORMATION
18 December 1952
Copy No. 5
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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NO CHANGE IN CLASS. AC
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: /-94-4607,1EVIEWER:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. British officials see need for additional troops in Indochina (page 3).
2. Philippine opposition party seeks Japanese campaign contribution
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Arab states protest British UN vote on Arab-Israeli negotiations
(page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Comment on Marshal Tito's statement threatening noncooperation
with the West (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5), East Germany reportedly unable to fill Soviet orders (page 5).
6. Italy opposes new NATO commitments before elections (page 6).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
I. British officials see need for additional troops in Indochina:
British officials in the Far East, meeting
at Bukit Serene in Malaya in early Decem-
ber, concluded that troop reinforcements
are urgently needed in Indochina. Noting
the serious situation at Na San and the French loss of initiative out-
side the Tonkin delta, the British officials estimated that possibly
one additional division is necessary, which under present circum-
stances could be supplied only by the French.
On a long term basis, they see little hope
that Vietnamese forces alone can, by 1954, assume the responsibility
for Indochina's defense unless in the meantime the Viet Minh suffers
a military disaster permanently weakening its capabilities.
Comment: It is highly improbable that the
French Government would authorize the dispatch of substantial rein-
forcements to Indochina in view of its current budgetary problems
and commitments in Europe and North Africa.
General Alessandri, Bao Dai's military
adviser, recently stated that with an additional 1,480 officers and
NCO's which France "could and must provide," 40 more lightly-
armed Vietnamese battalions could be promptly activated.
2. Philippine opposition party seeks Japanese campaign contribution:
A Japanese Foreign Ministry official told
the American Embassy in Tokyo that an
emissary of the Philippine opposition
Nacionalista Party had asked for contri-
butions to the party's campaign fund as
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the price for its support of ratification of the Japanese peace treaty.
The foreign ministry official, who is pro-
ceeding to Manila, indicated full awareness that both opposition and
government parties would make political capital from any Japanese
concession on reparations agreed on prior to ratification.
Comment: The Nacionalista Party, which
controls the Philippine Senate,-Eas blocked ratification of the Jap-
anese peace treaty on the grounds that the reparations issue must
first be resolved.
Japan has, in contrast to its previous posi-
tion, indicated a willingness to pay interim reparations before rat-
ification of the treaty.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Arab states protest British UN vote on Arab-Israeli negotiations:
The Arab governments have presented notes
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to Britain protesting its support for the UN's �3(h)(2)
eight-power resolution calling for direct
Arab-Israeli negotiations without insistence
on fulfillment of past UN resolutions on the
Palestine question.
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Discussion of the British vote is the only
agenda item for the meeting of the Arab
League Political Committee scheduled
tentatively for 27 December,
Comment: This sharp reaction to the British
vote indicates that British -nonparticipation in past efforts to settle
the Arab-Israeli conflict had ledthe Arabs to expect a different attitude
toward this latest UN attempt.
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EASTERN EUROPE
4. Comment on Marshal Tito's statement threatening noncooperation with
the West:
Marshal Tito's public warning to the West that
Yugoslavia will seek "another outcome" if it is not treated as an ally
illustrates Belgrade's traditional irritation with Italian diplomacy and
fear of "big power" interference. His threat that Yugoslavia will live
without aid rather than compromise on Trieste or alter the fundamental
character of its regime is mainly intended to invalidate the current
Italian campaign to make Western aid and military cooperation with
Yugoslavia conditional on concessions from Tito.
Current developments in Yugoslav-American
relations indicate that Tito is not seriously considering a reversal of
his policy of dependence on Western economic and military assistance
and of the trend toward military collaboration in developing joint defense
plans. The breaking of diplomatic relations with the Vatican, however,
almost immediately after Ambassador Allen had cautioned against such
a step, shows Tito's willingness to act in bold disregard of Western
public opinion.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. East Germany reportedly unable to fill Soviet orders:
A reliable report that the politburo of the
Socialist Unity Party has criticized East
Germany's failure to fulfill export orders
to the Soviet Union demonstrates the coun-
ry s Increasingly critical material shortages.
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these shortages have been especially acute since the embargo o estern
strategic materials, and that the production of some commodities has
been stopped completely. the USSR, however, is appar-
ently demanding that all deliveries be made on schedule.
Comment: Material shortages in East Germany
have had a particularly serious effect on the electrical engineering indus-
try and on heavy industries, and consequently on the five-year plan's
ambitious reconstruction program for the metallurgical industry. West
German semi-fabricated steel and engineering equipment remain of par-
amount importance to the East German economy.
6. Italy opposes new NATO commitments before elections:
Ambassador Bunker in Rome states that be-
cause of next spring's national elections, the
present time is definitely unfavorable for
presenting the proposed bilateral agreement
covering US-financed military production in Italy.
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The Italian Government does not want to make
any new written agreements involving NATO commitments which would
require parliamentary approval before the elections. It fears the effect
left-wing attacks on such measures would have on the electorate.
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