CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02018019
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 19, 1952

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INFORMATION
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19 December 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
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N4Tfit.p.IIEKDATE:
A 70:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Communist literature on BW distributed in Vienna (page 3).
FAR EAST
2.
major Korean political crisis in
January (page 3).
3. Chinese Communist jet bomber training proceeds rapidly (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4, Serious rioting in Morocco expected within 30 days (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Yugoslays believe they have excellent bargaining position on
Trieste issue (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Schuman sees Saar settlement by late February (page 5).
7. Portugal favors cancellation of NATO troop commitments
(page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Communist literature on BW distributed in Vienna:
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Several publications summarizing "evidence" 3.3(h)(2)
on the American use of biological warfare are
being distributed at a BW exhibition currently
being held in Vienna under the sponsorship of
the Chinese and Austrian peace councils.
Comment: There is no evidence that the
recent revival of Communist charges of American use of biological
warfare foreshadows another concerted Communist propaganda cam-
paign of proportions similar to the one earlier this year. The current
accusations seem designedto up-date such charges in order to docu-
ment Soviet arguments on the subject in current international forums.
FAR EAST
major Korean political crisis in January:
Rhee undoubtedly faces
another major political battle with opposi-
tion Assemblymen during January. The
forthcoming political crisis, which will probably be similar to last
spring's, will involve the appointment of a prime minister by Rhee
and elections for the upper house of the National Assembly.
Rhee's choice for
prime minister, either Paek Tu-chin or Yi Ki-pong, will not be
acceptable to the Assembly while the creation of the upper house
will meet with "blast-furnace resistance" by the legislators, who
realize that a second house would limit their powers.
Comment: American officials in Korea
believe that Rhee's recent public threats against the Assembly are
the opening moves in another attempt to curb its powers. With
the Assembly apparently as intractable as Rhee, there is little
likelihood that it would be susceptible to Rhee's requests.
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3. Chinese Communist jet bomber training proceeds rapidly:
Comment:
Chinese Communist jet bomber pilot training is proceeding rapidly
and that an element of the jet-equipped 8th Division should be
prepared for combat operations by February.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Serious rioting in Morocco expected within 30 days:
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further serious rioting
In Morocco is expected within 30 days.
French security officials state that
the nationalist Istiqlal party is organizing shock troops to aid
In inciting riots in Casablanca. It is estimated that approxi-
mately 10,000 fanatics are involved. With 7,000 to 109000 well-
equipped police and soldiers in that sector, the French are
confident that the situation can be kept in hand.
Comment: Widespread riots are most
likely to occur if the French depose the Sultan, a possibility pre-
viously reported. French security measures would probably
prevent large-scale disturbances in Casablanca; predominantly
native towns such as Fez and Meknes might prove more trouble-
some.
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EASTERN EUROPE
5. Yugoslays believe they have excellent bargaining position on Trieste
issue
/Foreign Minister
Kardelj recently stated that Yugoslavia's
increasing value to the West and its pos-
session of Zone B make its bargaining position on Trieste particularly
strong. Kardelj concluded that time is on Yugoslavia's side.
If serious negotiations develop, Yugo-
slavia will demand specific safeguards to protect the Slovene minority
both in Trieste and in Italy. In the absence of any new proposal,
however, Yugoslavia would support the establishment of an Italo-
Yugoslav condominium, conceivably with some Austrian participation.
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Comment: 3.3(h)(2)
much of Yugoslav action on the Trieste issue
reflects the reasoning presented. On 16 December Tito publicly
expressed extreme irritation at Italian demands for pressure on
Yugoslavia to force a Trieste solution, and stated that Yugoslavia
would make no concessions in Zone B. Previously, however, Belgrade
had professed willingness to concede some of the northern coastal
area in Zone B for substantial concessions in Zone A, such as a
corridor to the sea at Zaule.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Schuman sees Saar settlement by late February:
French Foreign Minister Schuman recently 3.3(h)(2)
told British Foreign Secretary Eden that
France and Germany were "more than
three quarters of the way" toward a Saar
solution and that he believed the issue could be settled by late
February. He said that he realizes the importance of making
further progress before the 1953 German national election campaign.
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According to the British Foreign Office,
Schuman stated that France does not expect to receive all of the
Saar's coal production, and that if the territory is "Europeanized,"
other countries will have to receive their share.
Comment: This is the first suggestion
of French willingness to share the Saar's coal or steel production.
This apparent shift in the French position provides some basis
for Schuman's prediction of an early settlement, which otherwise
appears over-optimistic in the light of numerous other still un-
resolved Saar economic questions.
7. Portugal favors cancellation of NATO troop commitments:
Comment: This attitude is consistent
with the Portuguese Government's lack of confidence in SHAPE
and its preference for concentrating on the defense of the Iberian
Peninsula, possibly through a tripartite alliance with Spain and
the United States.
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