CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/02/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020577
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: February 17, 1953

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INFORMATION
17 February 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GEN ERA L
I. East German trade developments with Egypt reported (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2.
FAR EAST
3. Japan proposes tripartite talks on Far Eastern problems (page 4).
4, Chinese Nationalist military mission may visit Korea (page 5).
5. Hong Kong governor does not expect increased Communist
pressure (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
6. French willing to accept American observers from Korea in
Indochina (page 6).
7. Bao Dat wishes to observe training methods in Korea (page 6).
8. Peiping attempting to create separatist movement among Southeast
Asia border tribes (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Iranian tribal clashes assume serious proportions (page 7).
10. Egypt to join Arabs in case of Israeli aggression (page 8).
11. Egypt may seek extensive International Bank loans (page 9).
WESTERN EUROPE
12, West Germany opposes all French EDC treaty protocols (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. East German trade developments with Egypt reported:
The American Embassy in Cairo reports 3.3(h)(2)
that the East German trade delegation now
in Egypt is authorized to conclude a barter
and payments agreement for up to $11,000,000
worth of goods. Under the proposed agreement,
Egyptian cotton would be exchanged for sugar,
chemical fertilizers, and railway cars.
2.
Although the East German press has strongly
emphasized the "official character" of the mission, an official of the
Egyptian Foreign Ministry states that Cairo has no intention of recog-
nizing the East German Government.
Comment: The value of the authorized
exchange is far less than the $60,000,000 to $100,000,000 exchange
offered the Egyptians by the West Germans, The West German negotia-
tions, however, apparently have broken down.
Egypt's urgent need to sell cotton will tempt
Cairo to agree to a reasonable East German offer. East Germany is
short of cotton; nevertheless, political motives may also be assumed
in its approach.
SOVIET UNION
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FAR EAST
3. Japan proposes tripartite talks on Far Eastern problems:
Japanese Foreign Minister Okazaki has
proposed, at the request of Prime Minister
Yoshida, that the United States, Britain and
Japan hold discussions regarding such issues
as the deneutralization of Formosa, a blockade of China, and bombing
of Manchuria.
Following this proposal to Ambassador
Murphy, Okazaki reviewed the difficulties which Japan faced during
the last war in blockading the China coast and in occupying China.
He also discounted Chinese Nationalist military and political capa-
bilities.
Comment: Many of Japan's political
leaders and most of the press have expressed fear over the conse-
quences to Japan of a more vigorous American policy toward Com-
munist China. Japanese officials have little confidence in the future
of the Formosa regime and are convinced of the inevitability of rela-
tions with Communist China. On numerous occasions they have sug-
gested that Chinese subservience to the Kremlin could be subverted
through "democratic infiltration" by the Japanese.
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4. Chinese Nationalist military mission may visit Korea:
Ambassador Briggs has learned from the
Chinese Nationalist Embassy in Pusan that
a military mission plans to visit Korea in
about ten days at the invitation of the South
Korean Air Force Chief of Staff.
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Comment: The Korean press has been
speculating, during the past week, on an alleged imminent visit of
such a mission. South Korean officials have declined comment and
US Eighth Army Headquarters apparently had no previous knowledge
of the plan.
The visit would be certain to arouse new
speculation over the possible use of Nationalist troops in Korea,
despite President Rheets known opposition to such a move.
5. Hong Kong governor does not expect increased Communist pressure:
The Governor of Hong Kong informed the
American Consul General that he does not
anticipate increased Chinese Communist
pressure on the colony as a result of the
Formosa deneutralization order.
Although he expects difficulties to arise
from the interception of British shipping, he regards the Formosa
decision as less likely to result in expanded hostilities than other
methods of exerting pressure on Communist China. He pointed out
that most British vessels are now going around Formosa.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French willing to accept American observers from Korea in Indochina
French High Commissioner Letourneau
believes that arrangements can be made
for a visit to Indochina by an observer
mission from Korea consisting of American
officers plus one or more South Korean officers.
The French High Command has already
given "general agreement?' to sending a mission from Indochina to
Korea to observe American methods for training South Korean troops.
Comment Ambassador Dunn in Paris
believes that France would oppose�direct American participation in
the training of the proposed additional Vietnamese battalions.
Letourneau has admitted to Ambassador
Heath in Saigon that United States methods of training South Korean
officers and troops may be more efficient than French methods for
training Indochinese troops, and favors studying American methods.
7. Bao Dal wishes to observe training methods in Korea
Bao Dal has expressed a strong desire to
visit Korea, according to the American
Ambassador in Saigon. The Vietnamese
chief of state wishes to be part of the pro-
posed French-Vietnamese mission to observe American training
methods there.
The Ambassador comments that a Korean
Visit, if permitted by the French, might add to Bao Dai's prestige and
would perhaps stimulate his interest in promoting the development of
a Vietnamese national army.
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Comment: Bao Dal's major weakness as
chief of state has been his tendency to isolate himself from major
problems. Both American and French officials have often urged him
to assume a more active role and exercise his considerable influence.
8. Peiping attempting to create separatist movement among Southeast
Asia border tribes:
The American Ambassador to Thailand
reports that according to recent Chinese
Communist news dispatches from Kunming
a "Thai nationality autonomous area" has
been established in southern Yunnan. The new "People's Government"
for the area is pledged to guide the Thai peoples and other minorities
in achieving autonomy.
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The Ambassador comments that this develop-
ment indicates Peiping is taking practical steps to control the border
tribes and suggests an intention to create disaffection among these
peoples living in Burma, Thailand and Indochina.
Comment: During the past few years, the
Chinese Communists have also been engaged in stimulating national-
istic feelings among the Shans and Kachins, who live on both sides of
the Burmese border farther to the north of the Thais.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Iranian tribal clashes assume serious proportions:
The Iranian Air Force Chief of Staff informed 3.3(h)(2)
the American Naval Attache in Tehran on 13
February that air units have been dispatched
to southwest Iran to reinforce the army units
engaging Bakhtiari tribesmen in the mountains northeast of Ahwaz.
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First reports from the extensive skirmish
suggested that the tribesmen were holding their own but the Air Force
Chief of Staff believes the situation can be controlled.
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The Iranian armed forces are considered
capable of controlling local tribal disturbances, but might not be able
to handle a concerted tribal effort.
10. Egypt to join Arabs in case of Israeli aggression:
The Egyptian delegate to the UN Mixed
Armistice Commission has told its chair-
man that Egypt will move against Israel
immediately if current incidents lead to
Involvement of troops of the Sordanian
Arab Legion.
The commission chairman recently ob-
served a "marked improvement" in the quality of Egyptian troops on
the Israeli frontier as well as the presence of German officers.
Comment: Despite reports of an Egyptian
inclination to reach a settlement with Israel, observers in the area be-
lieve that any major military move by Israel can be expected to produce
a united Arab front.
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West Germany opposes all French EDC treaty protocols:
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Chancellor Adenauer states that all the French-
proposed EDC treaty protocols are unacceptable
since they would destroy the European character
of the treaty and discriminate against West
Germany.
The texts, he says, are not consistent with
Premier Mayer's prior announcement that the substance of the treaty
would not be altered. Even if the French Government is willing to re-
duce its present demands, Bundestag consideration of both the Bonn and
Paris treaties might now be delayed.
American officials in Bonn comment that the
nature of the protocols will probably strengthen the present inclination
of the West German Constitutional Court to reject Adenauer's petition
for a ruling on the treaties' legality.
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Comment Adenauer had stated recently that
the Bundestag would act on the treaties by mid-March at the latest.
Should the court refuse on 20 February to take
action on the Chancellor's petition, prospects for eventual favorable court
action will be weakened.
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