CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/07/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020581
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 12, 1953

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12 July 1953
Copy No. 37
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
.MENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Nehru formally requests special General Assembly session
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
I/Ambassador Bohlen comments on Berta ouster (page 3).
FAR EAST
1/Nationalist defense of Tachens reportedly to be limited (page 4
4.
5. Peiping developing trade with Egypt (page o).
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SOUTH ASIA
6. Pakistan reduces its military strength (page 5).
EASTERN E UROPE
1.04( Comment on recent reports of disturbances in western Poland
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
/Further uprisings in East Berlin may follow work slowdown
(page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Nehru formally requests special General Assembly session:
In response to a formal request by Indian Prim3.3(h)(2)
Minister Nehru, General Assembly President
Pearson stated on 10 July that if there is no
Korean armistice by Monday, 13 July, he will
request y general on Tuesday to poll UN Inembers on the
desirability of a special session.
Pearson, although opposed to a meeting before
the conclusion of a truce, feels that Nehru has a right to make this re-
quest, and that no further delay is possible. He believes that the poll
will take a week.
Comment: Under the terms of the UN Charter,
the secretary general must convoke a special session on request of a
majority of the membership. The general UN sentiment opposed to a
meeting before an armistice has weakened with the continued delay.
SOVIET UNION
2. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Beria ouster:
Ambassador Bohlen believes that Beria's ar-
rest almost certainly occurred on 27 June or
Immediately prior thereto. He points out
that rumors affecting top Soviet personnel
generally follow �er than precede the event in question, and the
rumor of Beria's disgrace was linked to his absence from the opera
on that date.
The ambassador suggests that Soviet polit-
ical actions since 27 June, and particularly the more liberal Hungarian
policy announcedon 4 July, should be carefully noted before concluding
that Berta was the proponent of a line of relaxation. He questions
whether the head of the secret police, because of the nature of his
responsibility, would be in favor of such aline.
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Bohlen believes that it will be particularly
Important to watch the depth of the purge which may follow Beria's
arrest, since a large scale purge would require a reversal of inter-
nal and external policies pursued since Stalin's death. He concludes
that until this element in the situation is clarified, it is not possible
to assess the full political significance of Beria's arrest.
FAR EAST
3. Nationalist defense of Tachens reportedly to be limited:
4.
Chinese Nationalist forces will attempt to
hold only six of the islands in the Tachen
group, according to a 10 July report from
the American military attache at Taipei.
With two possible exceptions, only troops
the islands will be committed to their defense.
The attache estimates that the Communists
could assault the Tachens with six divisions and that they have the
necessary vessels available. He believes that the main island of the
group would fall within 18 to 36 hours.
Comment: Since 29 May at least 13 small
islands close to the Tachens have been occupied by Chinese Com-
munist troops, and recent reports suggest that they intend to cap-
ture all of the Nationalist-held islands in the area. The Tachens
are now defended by approximately 7,400 men and were to be rein-
forced with some 5,000 in mid-July.
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5. Peiping developing trade with Egypt:
C omment: The official Peipipg trading com-
pany has not previously been -kntiwn to act as middleman between two
non-Communist countries. In the past year Peiping has made itself an
Important buyer in Egypt's cotton market by purchasing more than it
needs and selling the remainder to the European Satellites.
These purchases, which do not appear to be
economically profitable to Peiping, may be directed, at persuading
Egypt to become the first Arab country to recognize Communist China.
SOUTH ASIA
6. Pakistan reduces its military strength:
The Pakistani Filly is now implementing a
previously reported plan to effect major
economies and to reduce its strength by
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between 30,000 and 40,000 men. It is abol-
ishing some posts at least as high as the
brigadier level; it is granting officers long
leaves at reduced pay; and it is 'reducing
line of communications units and installa-
tions to the danger point through the discharge of troops.
The American army attache states that
combat units have not been deactivated but that their efficiency has
certainly been reduced.
Comment: Actual implementation of the
plan to cut over-all military strength by about 20 percent clearly
demonstrat6s L the Pakistani government's awareness of the serious
economic problems facing it as well as its willingness to take drastic
measures to improve the situation. It also presupposes a firm govern-
ment decision to take no military action against India over the Kashmir
issue or any other question which may not be satisfactorily settled
during the forthcoming talks between Prime Ministers Nehru and
Mohammad Ali.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Comment on recent reports of disturbances in western Poland:
have reported
numerous acts of sabotage in western Poland during the first week
of July. in addition to numerous popu-
lar demonstrations, strikes have occurred in the Katowice area, a
number of bridges have been blasted by the underground in the Poznan
area, and railroad traffic between Warsaw and East Germany has
been disrupted.
Western officials stationed in Warsaw, who
made field trips on 6, 7 and 8 July into southern, western, northern
and central Poland, saw no signs of popular unrest and no unusual
security precautions (see map, p.7). Similar trips in these areas
during the latter half of June also produced negative results. The
French consul generals in Katowice and Krakow reported on 8 July
that they knew of no disturbances in their areas. The embassy has
observed nothing abnormal in Warsaw.
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OBSERVATIONS BY WESTERN MILITARY PERSONNEL
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While resistance in the form of individual
acts of sabotage and minor incidents undoubtedly continues, there is
yet no reliable evidence that it has assumed a violent or organized
form.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Further uprisings in East Berlin may follow work slowdown:
East German
government workers expect further demon-
strations or uprisings to stem from the
current work slowdowns. This possibility
s enJiaflcea Dytne xactthat the city is being patrolled only by People's
Police and East German military forces, for whom the workers have
less respect than for Russian troops. American military sources
estimate, however, that 8,000 to 10,000 Soviet troops and 200 tanks
are still in or near East Berlin.
The work slowdown prevailed in nearly all
major East Berlin factories through 9 July as a form of passive re-
sistance and noncooperation bordering on disrespect for authority.
While there has been no general or sitdown strike, tension has been
heightened with the demands for freedom for imprisoned workers
still being voiced.
Comment: The continued demand for the
freedom of these prisoners suggests that the promise to release
workers arrested for the June demonstrations may be at least
partially unfulfilled. This and other grievances keep rebellious
sentiments high, and the granting of free passage between the
Berlin sectors as of 9 July may serve to encourage more demon-
strations by the workers.
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