CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02026936
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 3, 1954

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3 April 1954
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 20
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE CO 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: eiVal.r..9._ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Wrangel Island construction reauirements MON explain Soviet
airlift (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Peiping maintains pressure for farm collectivization (page 3).
3. Chinese Communist MIG division at Canton strengthened (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. .Reinforcements deemed essential to hold Dien Bien Phu (page 6).
5. Comment on Viet Minh incursion into Cambodia (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Arab states organizing campaign against American aid to
Israel (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Belgian Social Christian Party likely to lose parliamentary
majority (page 8).
* * * *
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SOVIET UNION
1. Wrangel Island construction requirements may explain Soviet airlift:
Comment: The Directorate of Special
Construction, which has been associated with airfield construction
or improvement at seven other Arctic locations, may be planning
such activity on Wrangel Island. This possibility is supported by
indications that since last November aircraft which formerly landed
at Rogers Bay have been using an alternate airfield on the west side
of the island,
An "airlift" involving 12 military transports
from Far East bases and 84 from Europe has been under way in
northeast Siberia since late February. Wrangel Island appears to
be the final destination of the cargo or personnel involved, since
over 100 shuttle flights from mainland fields have terminated there
since the "airlift" began.
FAR EAST
2. Peiping maintains pressure for farm collectivization:
The spring cultivation directive issued on
31 March by Peiping's Government Admin-
istration Council informed rural officials
that "agricultural production and mutual aid and cooperation are a
whole task which is unified and cannot be separated. They are the
center of all work in the rural areas."
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SOVIET NORTH
.AIRFIELD CONSTRUCTION ACT1ViTY BY TECe DIRECTORATE OF SPECIAL CONSTRUCTION
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Comment: The spring cultivation directive is
a statement of the Peiping regime's basic agricultural policy. In
previous years Peiping recognized the unfavorable effects of sociali-
zation programs on agricultural production and discontinued such
activities in rural areas before spring. Last year, for example, the
annual directive on spring cultivation called encouragement of output
"the central task which supersedes all other tasks," and instructed
cadres to postpone or cancel other work which might obstruct spring
cultivation.
The continued formation of mutual aid teams
and farm producers' cooperatives through the growing season was
unexpected and reflects the speed of Peiping's movement toward a
controlled economy.
Chinese Communist MIG division at Canton strengthened:
The Chinese Communist 18th Air Division
at Canton in South China has been strengthened
by the addition of 28 MIG-15's and now has
82 planes,
Apparently to absorb the increase, a third
regiment of the division has been activated for the first time. Two
of the division's regiments, with a total of 54 planes, are operating
from Paiyun airfield at Canton. The third, with 28 aircraft is flying
from the recently completed field at Foshan, about 20 miles southwest
of Canton.
Comment: An increase of let fighter strength
raises the
estimated jet lighter strength in Central-South China to about 190.
Combat-trained in Korea, the 18th Division is the only known jet
fighter unit based along China's southern coast.
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Noe- .1. VI" 1
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
4. Reinforcements deemed essential to hold Dien Bien Phu:
Colonel de Castries said on 2 April that he
could guarantee the defense of Dien Bien Phu
with three more battalions. He added that a
minimum of two reinforcing battalions is
essential to prevent its loss, according to
Ambassador Heath in Saigon.
Heath reports, however, that bad flying
weather and heavy enemy attacks halted an attempted reinforcement
on 1 April after only 50 men were dropped. Again, as on the previous
day, half of the ammunition drop fell into enemy hands. The French
estimated on 2 April that Dien Bien Phu's garrison had only enough
ammunition at current rates of fire to last until the morning of 3 April.
Meanwhile, the American consulate at Hanoi
reports French intelligence opinion that enemy attacks are losing force,
possibly owing to personnel losses, fatigue and depletion of ammunition.
If Dien Bien Phu can hold out through the night of 3 April, French
intelligence believes "there is a chance that the situation may ease."
5. Comment on Wet Minh incursion into Cambodia:
The incursion into Cambodia by Viet Minh
regular elements reported on 1 April
apparently was undertaken by troops
drawn from a force of four battalions
operating in southern Laos. Elements which have crossed the
border are believed to number about 600 and present no real
military threat, although they may achieve some local successes.
This thrust is the first open penetration
of Cambodia by the Viet Minh and augments the scattered force of
1,000 infiltrated regulars already active there. The Viet Minh
has in addition some 6,500 regional troops and militia in Cambodia.
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The move may signify a Communist intent to
strengthen the claim to legitimacy of the "Free Cambodia" government
in connection with the Geneva conference. The Viet Minh probably
also wishes to make a further show of military prowess prior to the
conference in order to improve the Communists' bargaining position.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Arab states organizing campaign against American aid to Israel:
On 2 April the American press reported
that Jordan was considering the possibility of terminating its Point
IV agreement and notifying Eric Johnston not to return to the area
. to discuss the Jordan Valley plan.
On 1 April Ambassador Moose in Damascus
reported that Syrian defense minister Dawalibi spent two hours with
him bitterly criticizing aid to Israel. Moose believes that Dawalibi,
notably pro-Soviet in the past, would not hesitate to seek Soviet aid
if he thought the situation serious enough.
Comment: The Arabs hold the United States
partly responsible for the raids on Qibya and Nahhalin because of
American financial aid to Israel and the latter's use of American
ammunition.
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The Arab bloc and Israel are so intent on
competing for American and UN support that there is little prospect
of any solution emerging from the proposed Security Council consider-
ation of the Arab-Israeli problem.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Belgian Social Christian Party likely to lose parliamentary majority:
Informed sources in the three major Belgian
political parties believe that the Social
Christians will lose their majority in the
Chamber of Representatives and possibly
In the Senate when national elections are held on 11 April.
The establishment of independent electoral
lists by several splinter groups will hurt the Social Christians, who
are expected to lose between 8 and 14 seats in the Chamber, mostly
to Socialists and Liberals. The Communists are also expected to
lose ground.
Comment: Of the 212 seats in the Chamber,
the Social Christians now hold 108, the Socialists 77, and the Liberals
20. Only 7 seats are held by Communists.
The most likely successor government will
be a Social Christian-Socialist coalition committed to moderate
reforms. Such a coalition would mean little change in foreign policy.
It would, however, command more support for its policies than the
present one-party government, which has been dominated by con-
servatives.
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