CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/06
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
02026937
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
9
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
April 6, 1954
File:
Attachment | Size |
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689609].pdf | 394.2 KB |
Body:
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6 April 1954 3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 2a.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS, CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: CO2 .9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:PeVair_.7. REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Communists may bring up status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva
(Page 31.
2.
3. USSR reported pressing Afghanistan to accept aid (page 4).
SOVIET UNION
4. Jets redeployed in northeast Siberia (page 4).
FAR EAST
5. Chinese Communists and North Koreans apparently receiving more
Soviet IL-28's (page 6).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French ask American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu (page 7).
SOUTH ASIA
7. Ceylon cabinet considers scrapping trade agreement with Peiping
(page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Mounting Israeli belligerency increases chances of serious conflict
(page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. French sources see Juin's dismissal as severe setback for EDC
(page 8).
2
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GENERA L
1. Communists may bring up status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva:
2.
The Communists may be planning to
discuss the status of Laos and Cambodia
at Geneva,
Viet
n propaganda is giving heavy play to the unity among the "demo-
cratic governments" of Indochina, and states that the revolution,
Instead of being depicted as affecting only Vietnam, is being portrayed
as primarily Indochinese,
this show of solidarity
can only strengthen the Communist position in view of the undeniable
division of purpose among French Union members.
Comment: The Viet Minh has for several
years sponsored dissident groups in Laos and Cambodia and referred
to them as "governments." Neither Moscow nor Peiping has recognized
these "governments," but they may demand that spokesmen of these
groups take part in the Geneva conference.
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err
3. USSR reported pressing Afghanistan to accept aid:
The Soviet embassy in Kabul has been
pressing Afghanistan to accept "fantasti-
cally large" economic and technical aid,
according to the Afghan deputy foreign
minister. He implied that Foreign Minister Nairn is greatly worried
and is seeking ways to postpone Afghanistan's reply.
Comment: Moscow is apparently trying
to make sure that Afghanistan will not join in Middle East defense
planning, and to counteract the effects of Pakistan's participation.
This Soviet "offer" to Afghanistan may
presage similar pressure on Iran and other Middle Eastern states.
Soviet offers of economic and technical aid could also be used by
Moscow as concrete evidence of its "peaceful intentions" in contrast
to Western military planning in the area.
Afghanistan signed an agreement with the
USSR in January providing for a $3,500,000 credit and Soviet technical
assistance for grain processing and storage.
SOVIET UNION
4. Jets redeployed in northeast Siberia:
Two IL-28 jet light bombers and eight
MIG45 jet fighters flew from Provideniya
to Cape Schmidt on 3 April (see map, p. 5).
the movement of the MIG45's was sup-
ported by 14 transport flights from Velkal and Provideniya to Cape
Schmidt on 2 and 3 April.
4
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CROKURDAKIl
SEIMCHAN
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KURIL
I SLANDS
CHUKOTSK
NAT IONAL
OKRUG
ANGEL
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VELKAL
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BERING SEA
ALASKA
SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
ACTIVITY IN THE
c.) CHUKOTSK
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r LEGEND
PETROPAVLOVSK
MIG-I5 Fitts
Transport Flig:Its
Line of land-fast Ice generally unmvigabie ehcept with
ice breaker assistance or by heavily built vessels.
Maximum Ice Line (March)
Minimum Ice Line (September)
s 300M''"9"."0
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Comment: These flights indicate a
redisposition of jet fighter strength in northeast Siberia and repre-
sent an extension of Soviet air defense capabilities in the area. The
only jet aircraft in the Chukotsk area have been based at Provideniya,
where there has been at least one jet fighter regiment since late 1952.
Cape Schmidt and nearby Wrangel Island
have been the terminal points of extensive transport operations by
European and Far Eastern-based planes since late February.
.FAR EAST
5. Chinese Communists and North Koreans apparently receiving more
Soviet IL-28's:
an
unknown number of twin-jet bombers
entered Manchuria from Chita in the
USSR on 3 April and flew to Tsitsihar,
Peiping's IL-28 base in Manchuria. Three
and possibly four of the aircraft were reported taking off the next day
for Kungchuling, Manchurian base of the North Korean 4th Air Divi-
sion, an IL-28-equipped unit.
Comment: About 55 IL-28 jet bombers
have been delivered from the USSR to China since the truce last July,
but these would be the first since November. Six other aircraft
recently delivered are believed to be TU-4 medium bombers. Mean-
while, increased activity by Chinese Communist MIG-15 units near the
Yalu and the presence of an additional regiment of MIG's at Canton in
southern China suggest that more jet fighters have been made available
to Peiping since the cease-fire.
The current movement is the first indication
that the North Korean air force may also have received aircraft since
the truce.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French ask American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu:
eneral Navarre has reported to Paris
hat the situation at Dien Bien Phu is now
in a state of "precarious equilibrium."
he Viet Minh is bringing up its last available
einxorcements, wnicn witi far outnumber any fresh troops the French
can drop in by parachute. He believes that a renewal of the assault by
reinforced Viet Minh forces is probable by the middle or end of the week.
French foreign minister Bidault on 4 April
asked Ambassador Dillon for American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu.
At the same time, Biclault told the ambassador that the chief of the French
air staff believed such American action could lead to Chinese air attacks on
delta airfields.
The foreign minister further said that the fate
of Southeast Asia and that of the Geneva conference now depend on the
outcome at Dien Bien Phu,
SOUTH ASIA
7. Ceylon cabinet considers scrapping trade agreement with Peiping:
The Ceylonese cabinet has been discussing
the possibility of scrapping Ceylon's five-
year rubber-rice barter agreement with
Communist China, according to Agriculture
Minister J. R. Jayewardene. He told the American ambassador on 2
April that Ceylon cannot consume or sell all the rice it receives from
China in return for its rubber shipments, and that the present surplus
of 50,000 tons is not marketable at home or abroad.
jayewardene added, however, that the deal
with China was still profitable in view of the high price Ceylon obtained
for rubber, and he hoped that the United States would help Ceylon
"materially" if the agreement were abrogated.
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Comment: The agriculture minister's
comments are an open invitation for an American offer of economic
assistance in return for Ceylon's abandonment of the agreement with
China, now in its second year. World rice surpluses and Ceylon's
improved food situation make this agreement less attractive, and may
lead the Ceylonese to try to drive a harder bargain in their annual price
negotiations with Peiping this fall.
The drawbacks apparently are not yet serious
enough, however, to alter Ceylon's contention that the United States must
make up most of the difference--$17,000,000 in 1953--between the world
price of rubber and the price paid by Peiping if the deal is to be scrapped
completely.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Mounting Israeli belligerency increases chances of serious conflict:
Consul General Tyler reports from Jerusalem
that Israel's belligerency and tendency to retal-
iate against the Arab states have increased
dangerously since 1952. He states that the
British, who Are usually well informed, are
to be registering their subjects. Tyler believes
that if there is another incident in which an Israeli is killed, Tel Aviv
will probably retaliate as it did at Nahhalin.
Comment: With the Arab Legion alert on
the border, a confused incident, where responsibility cannot be quickly
determined, may result in hostilities on a larger scale. Sharett thus
may not have enough time to prove the effectiveness of his moderate
policy toward the Arab states.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. French sources see juin% dismissal as severe setback for EDC:
The French government's disciplining of
Marshal Juin will cause a severe setback
for EDC,
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French veterans
and the general public will now show a much stronger anti-EDC attitude.
Oeneral de Gaulle pressed Juin recently to act
as a rallying point for French nationalists.
some members of parliament are already discussing the
possibility of having a senator or deputy vacate his seat so as to give
Juin an elected office in which he could make antigovernment speeches
freely.
Comment: Press reaction to the assault
on Premier Laniel and Deg'We-Ili-mister Pleven in Paris on 4 April
suggests that public opinion is rallying to the support of the government
against the political agitation of military leaders. Suspicion of the
marshal's political ambitions can be expected to temper any endorsement
in the assembly of his all-out opposition to EDC.
As a result of his dismissal, Juin may be
more susceptible to urgings that he attempt a coup. It is quite unlikely,
however, that he could obtain sufficient support to overthrow the govern-
ment.
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