CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/06

Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
02026937
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
9
Document Creation Date: 
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
April 6, 1954
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Body: 
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 ply://,ye /),NA TOP RET rfolly7117 E_D 6 April 1954 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) Copy No. 76 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO 2a. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. O DECLASSIFIED CLASS, CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: CO2 .9 AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE:PeVair_.7. REVIEWER Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP RET V Arff Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 � . Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 1 Ji 1LtSJ, SUMMARY GENERAL I. Communists may bring up status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva (Page 31. 2. 3. USSR reported pressing Afghanistan to accept aid (page 4). SOVIET UNION 4. Jets redeployed in northeast Siberia (page 4). FAR EAST 5. Chinese Communists and North Koreans apparently receiving more Soviet IL-28's (page 6). SOUTHEAST ASIA 6. French ask American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu (page 7). SOUTH ASIA 7. Ceylon cabinet considers scrapping trade agreement with Peiping (page 7). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 8. Mounting Israeli belligerency increases chances of serious conflict (page 8). WESTERN EUROPE 9. French sources see Juin's dismissal as severe setback for EDC (page 8). 2 TOPJEE1 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 6 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 L.-Kt 1 GENERA L 1. Communists may bring up status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva: 2. The Communists may be planning to discuss the status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva, Viet n propaganda is giving heavy play to the unity among the "demo- cratic governments" of Indochina, and states that the revolution, Instead of being depicted as affecting only Vietnam, is being portrayed as primarily Indochinese, this show of solidarity can only strengthen the Communist position in view of the undeniable division of purpose among French Union members. Comment: The Viet Minh has for several years sponsored dissident groups in Laos and Cambodia and referred to them as "governments." Neither Moscow nor Peiping has recognized these "governments," but they may demand that spokesmen of these groups take part in the Geneva conference. -3 TOP c' REt Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 6 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 err 3. USSR reported pressing Afghanistan to accept aid: The Soviet embassy in Kabul has been pressing Afghanistan to accept "fantasti- cally large" economic and technical aid, according to the Afghan deputy foreign minister. He implied that Foreign Minister Nairn is greatly worried and is seeking ways to postpone Afghanistan's reply. Comment: Moscow is apparently trying to make sure that Afghanistan will not join in Middle East defense planning, and to counteract the effects of Pakistan's participation. This Soviet "offer" to Afghanistan may presage similar pressure on Iran and other Middle Eastern states. Soviet offers of economic and technical aid could also be used by Moscow as concrete evidence of its "peaceful intentions" in contrast to Western military planning in the area. Afghanistan signed an agreement with the USSR in January providing for a $3,500,000 credit and Soviet technical assistance for grain processing and storage. SOVIET UNION 4. Jets redeployed in northeast Siberia: Two IL-28 jet light bombers and eight MIG45 jet fighters flew from Provideniya to Cape Schmidt on 3 April (see map, p. 5). the movement of the MIG45's was sup- ported by 14 transport flights from Velkal and Provideniya to Cape Schmidt on 2 and 3 April. 4 TOSECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 6 Apr 54 � Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 .1_ Li .1�o N.�, 1. '6 .���� Noe CROKURDAKIl SEIMCHAN � KURIL I SLANDS CHUKOTSK NAT IONAL OKRUG ANGEL !SUN VELKAL ZALIV KR TA � BERING SEA ALASKA SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT ACTIVITY IN THE c.) CHUKOTSK 4. 7� r LEGEND PETROPAVLOVSK MIG-I5 Fitts Transport Flig:Its Line of land-fast Ice generally unmvigabie ehcept with ice breaker assistance or by heavily built vessels. Maximum Ice Line (March) Minimum Ice Line (September) s 300M''"9"."0 40405 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 Comment: These flights indicate a redisposition of jet fighter strength in northeast Siberia and repre- sent an extension of Soviet air defense capabilities in the area. The only jet aircraft in the Chukotsk area have been based at Provideniya, where there has been at least one jet fighter regiment since late 1952. Cape Schmidt and nearby Wrangel Island have been the terminal points of extensive transport operations by European and Far Eastern-based planes since late February. .FAR EAST 5. Chinese Communists and North Koreans apparently receiving more Soviet IL-28's: an unknown number of twin-jet bombers entered Manchuria from Chita in the USSR on 3 April and flew to Tsitsihar, Peiping's IL-28 base in Manchuria. Three and possibly four of the aircraft were reported taking off the next day for Kungchuling, Manchurian base of the North Korean 4th Air Divi- sion, an IL-28-equipped unit. Comment: About 55 IL-28 jet bombers have been delivered from the USSR to China since the truce last July, but these would be the first since November. Six other aircraft recently delivered are believed to be TU-4 medium bombers. Mean- while, increased activity by Chinese Communist MIG-15 units near the Yalu and the presence of an additional regiment of MIG's at Canton in southern China suggest that more jet fighters have been made available to Peiping since the cease-fire. The current movement is the first indication that the North Korean air force may also have received aircraft since the truce. -6 6 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 �or I v.}.1, LA, I SOUTHEAST ASIA 6. French ask American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu: eneral Navarre has reported to Paris hat the situation at Dien Bien Phu is now in a state of "precarious equilibrium." he Viet Minh is bringing up its last available einxorcements, wnicn witi far outnumber any fresh troops the French can drop in by parachute. He believes that a renewal of the assault by reinforced Viet Minh forces is probable by the middle or end of the week. French foreign minister Bidault on 4 April asked Ambassador Dillon for American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu. At the same time, Biclault told the ambassador that the chief of the French air staff believed such American action could lead to Chinese air attacks on delta airfields. The foreign minister further said that the fate of Southeast Asia and that of the Geneva conference now depend on the outcome at Dien Bien Phu, SOUTH ASIA 7. Ceylon cabinet considers scrapping trade agreement with Peiping: The Ceylonese cabinet has been discussing the possibility of scrapping Ceylon's five- year rubber-rice barter agreement with Communist China, according to Agriculture Minister J. R. Jayewardene. He told the American ambassador on 2 April that Ceylon cannot consume or sell all the rice it receives from China in return for its rubber shipments, and that the present surplus of 50,000 tons is not marketable at home or abroad. jayewardene added, however, that the deal with China was still profitable in view of the high price Ceylon obtained for rubber, and he hoped that the United States would help Ceylon "materially" if the agreement were abrogated. 6 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 1 %..) 1 Comment: The agriculture minister's comments are an open invitation for an American offer of economic assistance in return for Ceylon's abandonment of the agreement with China, now in its second year. World rice surpluses and Ceylon's improved food situation make this agreement less attractive, and may lead the Ceylonese to try to drive a harder bargain in their annual price negotiations with Peiping this fall. The drawbacks apparently are not yet serious enough, however, to alter Ceylon's contention that the United States must make up most of the difference--$17,000,000 in 1953--between the world price of rubber and the price paid by Peiping if the deal is to be scrapped completely. NEAR EAST - AFRICA . Mounting Israeli belligerency increases chances of serious conflict: Consul General Tyler reports from Jerusalem that Israel's belligerency and tendency to retal- iate against the Arab states have increased dangerously since 1952. He states that the British, who Are usually well informed, are to be registering their subjects. Tyler believes that if there is another incident in which an Israeli is killed, Tel Aviv will probably retaliate as it did at Nahhalin. Comment: With the Arab Legion alert on the border, a confused incident, where responsibility cannot be quickly determined, may result in hostilities on a larger scale. Sharett thus may not have enough time to prove the effectiveness of his moderate policy toward the Arab states. WESTERN EUROPE 9. French sources see juin% dismissal as severe setback for EDC: The French government's disciplining of Marshal Juin will cause a severe setback for EDC, 6 Apr 54 TOP CRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026931 French veterans and the general public will now show a much stronger anti-EDC attitude. Oeneral de Gaulle pressed Juin recently to act as a rallying point for French nationalists. some members of parliament are already discussing the possibility of having a senator or deputy vacate his seat so as to give Juin an elected office in which he could make antigovernment speeches freely. Comment: Press reaction to the assault on Premier Laniel and Deg'We-Ili-mister Pleven in Paris on 4 April suggests that public opinion is rallying to the support of the government against the political agitation of military leaders. Suspicion of the marshal's political ambitions can be expected to temper any endorsement in the assembly of his all-out opposition to EDC. As a result of his dismissal, Juin may be more susceptible to urgings that he attempt a coup. It is quite unlikely, however, that he could obtain sufficient support to overthrow the govern- ment. 6 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026937