CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/30

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
02026940
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RIPPUB
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U
Document Page Count: 
9
Document Creation Date: 
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
August 30, 2019
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Publication Date: 
April 30, 1954
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689555].pdf299.54 KB
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Fri#31 for VI etf/ � 2019/08/02 C0,202694r0,47W 4/, /4 30 April 1954 Copy No, 76 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO 1-3 NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 1 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE:: AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE:40/79_ REVIEWER: _ Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP SECRET C.-- 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 " Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 vino V../1. JCLAS.1.: 1 SUMMARY GENERAL 1. Soviet diplomat comments on Geneva conference (page 3). 2. Peiping announces Sino-Indian agreement on Tibet (page 3). 3. SOUTHEAST ASIA 4. 5. French will not sign draft treaties satisfactory to Vietnamese (page 5). 6. Bao Dat suggests coalition with Viet Minh after Vietnam independence (page 6). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 7. Oil consortium's proposals appear to favor Iran (page 6). 8. Turkey impatient over Western policy on Balkan Pact (page 7). 9. Comment on dissolution of Iraqi parliament (page 8). WESTERN EUROPE 10. French EDC debate further delayed (page 8). 2 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 New J 1 J1Lik.....L�.CI. GENERAL 1. Soviet diplomat comments on Geneva conference: A counselor of the Soviet embassy in London, who had previously made the same point, told American diplomats again on 27 April that little could be expected from the confer- ence on orea and that there appeared to be growing interest in the partition of Indochina, "a solution which seemed feasible." 2. The Soviet delegation, he said, would remain in the background, with the result that the Chinese Communists would have to bear the brunt of Secretary Dulles' "verbal H-bombs." He predicted that the conference would be relatively short, "40 days at the most." Comment: Soviet diplomats are known to have suggested on three previous occasions that an Indochina settlement might be based on partition. A Soviet spokesman on 15 April raised the further possibility of a cease-fire with each side keeping the areas it now holds. It is not yet clear what part Molotov will elect to play at Geneva. He may feel that his playing of a relatively in- conspicuous role will facilitate efforts to maneuver the conference into acting as a "mediator" between France and the Viet Minh. In order to create an impression of making genuine efforts to make Geneva a success, Molotov and Chou En-lai will almost certainly remain in Geneva for some time after the depar- ture of the Western Big Three foreign ministers. Peiping announces Sino-IndLan agreement on Tibet: Peiping radio announced on 29 April the conclusion of an agreement between China and India on the status of Indian interests in Tibet. An exchange of notes between the - 3 - Tor SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 002026940 30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 ',gamy" Chinese vice foreign minister and the Indian ambassador provides that India will withdraw its troops from guard duty along Tibetan trade routes and will turn over to China all the shel- ters and communications facilities now maintained by India. In addition to these notes, an agreement on "trade and intercourse" between Tibet and India permits the establish- ment of Chinese trade agencies in New Delhi, Calcutta and Kalimpong. India, in return, will retain its three trade agencies in Tibet Comment This announcement confirms previous indications that Nev'--71561Fi would abandon all its military posi- tions in Tibet. Chinese agencies in New Delhi and Calcutta presumably would be attached to the diplomatic posts already there, but an agency in Kalimpong would be the first official Communist post within India's strategic northern frontier area. - 4 - Tor SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 14001/4._11 01-..A.....1\1: 'Rawl SOUTHEAST ASIA 4. 5. French will not sign draft treaties satisfactory to Vietnamese: Premier Buu Loc showed the American charg� in Saigon copies of the French-Vietnamese treaties, which are ready for signature and which meet all Vietnamese demands. He said the French are refusing to sign until certain auxiliary conventions are negotiated. The charg�oted that articles in the treaties specifying that they would come into full force on the date of signature account for the French reluctance to sign. - 5 - 30 Apr 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 NoiseLJ 1d1XL 1. Comment: Signature of these treaties would grant the Vietnamese virtually complete independence and give them a much needed psychological boost. The treaties would also serve to counter Communist charges at Geneva that Vietnam is a French puppet. 6. Bao Dai suggests coalition with Viet Minh after Vietnam independence: Bao Dai, in a note to the French Foreign Ministry opposing the partition of Vietnam, suggested that his country, when fully inde- pendent, would' approach the Viet Minh directly. he would propose a coalition government in which the Wet Minh would not hold any key position. Comment It is doubtful that Bao Dai is seriously considering any aTiircia7F to the Viet Minh. He may calculate, however, that the French would welcome the face-saving potentialities of a strictly Vietnamese approach to the Wet Minh and would therefore meet his demand for an immediate affirmation of Vietnam's independence. Such a proposal may be welcomed by Paris as an excuse for permitting an early French withdrawal regardless of the eventual consequences. NEAR EAST - AFRICA 7. oil consortium's proposals appear to favor Iran: Herbert Hoover, Jr., reports that the oil consortium's proposals to Iran are in every instance equal, or superior, to those in effect in other Middle Eastern countries. Iran would receive more favorable terms in the calculation of its share of the oil reve- nues than do other countries in the area, - 6 - TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940- 30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 L31-� \�,1A-Li mairo and its annual income at the end of three years would be approximately $175,000,000. The volume of export and refining by the third year would approximate that of other oil producing countries in the Middle East. Although the consortium insists on effective control over management of the oil operations, it is prepared to concede increased Iranian participation. Torkild Rieber, oil adviser to the Iranian government, believes that Prime Minister Zahedi will accept the con- sortium's proposals if sufficiently pressed. He feels, however, that the shah, Minister of Court Ala, and others are causing difficulty. Comment: Iranian officials will find it diffi- cult,for political reasons, to accept a proposal placing control of the oil industry in foreign hands. They prefer an arrangement which would com- mit the consortium only to market the oil which the National Iranian Oil Company would produce and deliver. The consortium, on the other hands is convinced that it can operate effectively only if it is permitted to man- age the production and refining of the oil which it is to market. 8. Turkey impatient over Western policy on Balkan Pact: Turkey cannot "contemplate with equanimity" an indefinite delay in arrangements of such vital concern to its security as a defensive alliance with Greece and Yugoslavia, accord- ing to Under Secretary Birgi of the Turkish Foreign Ministry. He stated that the intention of concluding a Balkan military alliance was inherent in the Ankara treaty and was confirmed by the Greek, Turkish and Yugo- slav foreign ministers in Athens last July. Birgi feels that Turkey has already lost time in developing its Balkan defense plans because of the "interference of Western views." He said that the joint statement at the conclusion of Tito's visit in Ankara was actually intended to serve notice that Turkey wants to progress toward a formal defense alliance in the Balkans. TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 002026940 .30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 Nur Ll -.4 .11.A. L Comment: This is the most positive assertion yet made by the Turks that they feel an immediate need for a Balkan defense alliance. It suggests that Turkish pressure will con- tinue until a firm Western position is clarified. Regardless of Birgies expression of the need for urgency, it is doubtful that Turkey will endanger its NATO status by taking any major step without American approval. 9. Comment on dissolution of Iraqi parliament: The dissolution of the Iraqi parliament, coming on the heels of the choice as prime minister of Arshad al Umari--rather than Nun i Said, whose appointment had been expected--means that the domestic pressure for free elections has been too strong for the crown to resist. Pending elections, which under the constitu- tion must be held within four months, Iraq probably will not take any eps toward adherence to the Turkish-Pakistani pact. WESTERN EUROPE 10. French EDC debate further delayed: The French National Assembly will not begin debate of EDC before sometime in Iu.ne, in the opinion of Ambassador Dillon. Although informal agreement has been reached in the EDC Interim Commission on the French Socialists precondition for democratic con- trol of the proposed European army, the Dutch representatives have caused delay by their insistence on obtain- ing cabinet approval of the agreement. Because of this delay, the French Socialist Party will not convene its special party congress on EDC pre- conditions until 30 May. Dillon believes that the National Assembly steer- ing committee meeting to schedule EDC debate will now have to be post- poned from 18 May until June. - .8 - Tor SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940 *or Comment: Although the Dutch government will probably accept the agreement reached in the EDC Interim Commis- sion, it is disgruntled over French objections to prompt European eco- nomic integration and over alleged American sympathy for Indonesia in the current dispute over New Guinea. 9 30 Apr 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026940