CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/30
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
02026940
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RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
9
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
April 30, 1954
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Attachment | Size |
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689555].pdf | 299.54 KB |
Body:
Fri#31 for
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30 April 1954
Copy No,
76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 1-3
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE::
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:40/79_ REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Soviet diplomat comments on Geneva conference (page 3).
2. Peiping announces Sino-Indian agreement on Tibet (page 3).
3.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4.
5. French will not sign draft treaties satisfactory to Vietnamese
(page 5).
6. Bao Dat suggests coalition with Viet Minh after Vietnam independence
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Oil consortium's proposals appear to favor Iran (page 6).
8. Turkey impatient over Western policy on Balkan Pact (page 7).
9. Comment on dissolution of Iraqi parliament (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French EDC debate further delayed (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Soviet diplomat comments on Geneva conference:
A counselor of the Soviet embassy in London,
who had previously made the same point,
told American diplomats again on 27 April
that little could be expected from the confer-
ence on orea and that there appeared to be growing interest in the
partition of Indochina, "a solution which seemed feasible."
2.
The Soviet delegation, he said, would remain
in the background, with the result that the Chinese Communists would
have to bear the brunt of Secretary Dulles' "verbal H-bombs."
He predicted that the conference would be
relatively short, "40 days at the most."
Comment: Soviet diplomats are known to
have suggested on three previous occasions that an Indochina settlement
might be based on partition. A Soviet spokesman on 15 April raised the
further possibility of a cease-fire with each side keeping the areas it
now holds.
It is not yet clear what part Molotov will
elect to play at Geneva. He may feel that his playing of a relatively in-
conspicuous role will facilitate efforts to maneuver the conference into
acting as a "mediator" between France and the Viet Minh.
In order to create an impression of making
genuine efforts to make Geneva a success, Molotov and Chou En-lai
will almost certainly remain in Geneva for some time after the depar-
ture of the Western Big Three foreign ministers.
Peiping announces Sino-IndLan agreement on Tibet:
Peiping radio announced on 29 April the
conclusion of an agreement between China
and India on the status of Indian interests
in Tibet. An exchange of notes between the
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Chinese vice foreign minister and the Indian
ambassador provides that India will withdraw
its troops from guard duty along Tibetan trade
routes and will turn over to China all the shel-
ters and communications facilities now maintained by India.
In addition to these notes, an agreement on
"trade and intercourse" between Tibet and India permits the establish-
ment of Chinese trade agencies in New Delhi, Calcutta and Kalimpong.
India, in return, will retain its three trade agencies in Tibet
Comment This announcement confirms
previous indications that Nev'--71561Fi would abandon all its military posi-
tions in Tibet. Chinese agencies in New Delhi and Calcutta presumably
would be attached to the diplomatic posts already there, but an agency
in Kalimpong would be the first official Communist post within India's
strategic northern frontier area.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4.
5. French will not sign draft treaties satisfactory to Vietnamese:
Premier Buu Loc showed the American charg�
in Saigon copies of the French-Vietnamese
treaties, which are ready for signature and
which meet all Vietnamese demands. He said
the French are refusing to sign until certain auxiliary conventions are
negotiated.
The charg�oted that articles in the treaties
specifying that they would come into full force on the date of signature
account for the French reluctance to sign.
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Comment: Signature of these treaties
would grant the Vietnamese virtually complete independence and give
them a much needed psychological boost. The treaties would also
serve to counter Communist charges at Geneva that Vietnam is a
French puppet.
6. Bao Dai suggests coalition with Viet Minh after Vietnam independence:
Bao Dai, in a note to the French Foreign
Ministry opposing the partition of Vietnam,
suggested that his country, when fully inde-
pendent, would' approach the Viet Minh
directly. he would
propose a coalition government in which the Wet Minh would not hold
any key position.
Comment It is doubtful that Bao Dai is
seriously considering any aTiircia7F to the Viet Minh. He may calculate,
however, that the French would welcome the face-saving potentialities
of a strictly Vietnamese approach to the Wet Minh and would therefore
meet his demand for an immediate affirmation of Vietnam's independence.
Such a proposal may be welcomed by Paris as
an excuse for permitting an early French withdrawal regardless of the
eventual consequences.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. oil consortium's proposals appear to favor Iran:
Herbert Hoover, Jr., reports that the oil
consortium's proposals to Iran are in every
instance equal, or superior, to those in
effect in other Middle Eastern countries.
Iran would receive more favorable terms in
the calculation of its share of the oil reve-
nues than do other countries in the area,
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and its annual income at the end of three years would be approximately
$175,000,000. The volume of export and refining by the third year would
approximate that of other oil producing countries in the Middle East.
Although the consortium insists on effective
control over management of the oil operations, it is prepared to concede
increased Iranian participation.
Torkild Rieber, oil adviser to the Iranian
government, believes that Prime Minister Zahedi will accept the con-
sortium's proposals if sufficiently pressed. He feels, however, that
the shah, Minister of Court Ala, and others are causing difficulty.
Comment: Iranian officials will find it diffi-
cult,for political reasons, to accept a proposal placing control of the oil
industry in foreign hands. They prefer an arrangement which would com-
mit the consortium only to market the oil which the National Iranian Oil
Company would produce and deliver. The consortium, on the other hands
is convinced that it can operate effectively only if it is permitted to man-
age the production and refining of the oil which it is to market.
8. Turkey impatient over Western policy on Balkan Pact:
Turkey cannot "contemplate with equanimity"
an indefinite delay in arrangements of such
vital concern to its security as a defensive
alliance with Greece and Yugoslavia, accord-
ing to Under Secretary Birgi of the Turkish Foreign Ministry. He stated
that the intention of concluding a Balkan military alliance was inherent
in the Ankara treaty and was confirmed by the Greek, Turkish and Yugo-
slav foreign ministers in Athens last July.
Birgi feels that Turkey has already lost time
in developing its Balkan defense plans because of the "interference of
Western views." He said that the joint statement at the conclusion of
Tito's visit in Ankara was actually intended to serve notice that Turkey
wants to progress toward a formal defense alliance in the Balkans.
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Comment: This is the most positive
assertion yet made by the Turks that they feel an immediate need for
a Balkan defense alliance. It suggests that Turkish pressure will con-
tinue until a firm Western position is clarified.
Regardless of Birgies expression of the need
for urgency, it is doubtful that Turkey will endanger its NATO status
by taking any major step without American approval.
9. Comment on dissolution of Iraqi parliament:
The dissolution of the Iraqi parliament, coming
on the heels of the choice as prime minister of
Arshad al Umari--rather than Nun i Said, whose
appointment had been expected--means that the domestic pressure for
free elections has been too strong for the crown to resist.
Pending elections, which under the constitu-
tion must be held within four months, Iraq probably will not take any
eps toward adherence to the Turkish-Pakistani pact.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French EDC debate further delayed:
The French National Assembly will not begin
debate of EDC before sometime in Iu.ne, in the
opinion of Ambassador Dillon.
Although informal agreement has been reached
in the EDC Interim Commission on the French
Socialists precondition for democratic con-
trol of the proposed European army, the
Dutch representatives have caused delay by their insistence on obtain-
ing cabinet approval of the agreement. Because of this delay, the French
Socialist Party will not convene its special party congress on EDC pre-
conditions until 30 May. Dillon believes that the National Assembly steer-
ing committee meeting to schedule EDC debate will now have to be post-
poned from 18 May until June.
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Comment: Although the Dutch government
will probably accept the agreement reached in the EDC Interim Commis-
sion, it is disgruntled over French objections to prompt European eco-
nomic integration and over alleged American sympathy for Indonesia in
the current dispute over New Guinea.
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