CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/06

Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
02026943
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
7
Document Creation Date: 
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 6, 1954
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689477].pdf211.28 KB
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pproved for Reteptu.slease: 2019/08/02 CO20269z7 - A 6 May 1954 Copy No. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. r. I DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: PO 03 AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: e47/2147:g_. REVIEWER: Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 76 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) ee?� 7 7 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 vire' 'roof SUMMARY GENERAL I. Communists may propose elections in all three Associated States (page 3). 2. Visas requested for additional Viet Minh delegates to Geneva (page 3). SOVIET UNION 3. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Soviet internal developments (page 4). SOUTHEAST ASIA 4. Vietnamese government crippled by internal differences (page 5). EASTERN EUROPE 5. French ambassador believes Yugoslavia moving closer to T7est (paze 5). WESTERN EUROPE 6. French minister favors partition of Indochina (page 6). 2-. TC)P AFPRPT Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 6 May 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 _ Imer+ 'goof GENERAL 1. Communists may propose elections in all three Associated States: International News Service correspondent Kingsbury Smith informed the American delegation at Geneva on 4 May that Popov, editor of the Soviet English-language paper News, had told him that the Communists would not propose partition or a coalition government for Vietnam but instead would ask for supervised nationwide elections in the three Associated States. He said the Commu- nists realized that they would probably lose elections in Laos and Cam- bodia but thought they would win 60 percent of the vote in Vietnam. In reply to Smith's inquiry whether UN super- vision was contemplated, Popov said the Communists preferred to have "neutral supervision." Comment: Two Communist journalists have stated on previous occasions that the Communists would propose elec- tions in Indochina. Communist formulae for elections in the cases of Germany and Korea have called for formation of a provisional government combining the rival regimes, ihichwouI4 later hold "free elections" without "foreign interference." 2. Visas requested for additional Viet Minh delegates to Geneva: 3 TflP gFCRFT Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 6 May 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 �wr a *Wiwi %.1 Le I NNW Comment: Five Viet Minh representatives arrived in Geneva on 4 May and in their first press release referred to "the national rights" of the people of Laos and Cambodia as well as Vietnam. The requests for a total of 34 visas suggest that the Commu- nists may have at hand delegations to represent the Viet Minh-sponsored regimes of Laos and Cambodia. SOVIET UNION 3. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Soviet internal developments: Ambassador Bohlen believes it. possible that the recent formation of the Committee of State Security (KGB) was intended to ensure collective control over security aspects of the MVD apparatus. He points out that for the first time this function is placed, at least theoretically, under the Council of Ministers as a whole. While the committee will presumably deal only with "Secret" police affairs, there is doubt whether it will actually administer the full security apparatus with its millions of informers or whether it will merely supervise these operations within the MVD. Commenting on the increased public prestige of Party Secretary Khrushchev, Bohlen notes that the principle of col- lective rule always contains the inherent, continuing possibility of rivalry and dissension at the top. He stresses, however, that division is more likely to arise over deep policy differences than purely personal rival- ries. Comment: Other recent information has disclosed that the KGB will be a separate organization controlling both overt and covert functions of the security apparatus. The creation of such a committee directly under the Council of Ministers also suggests that it may have been given the responsibility for all foreign intelligence efforts. Khrushchevis rise increases the likelihood of a struggle for power within the collective leadership. 4 TOP gFracT Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 6 May 54 Approved ft:7 -&-reaS-e72-6r9T65702 CO2026943 Now SOUTHEAST ASIA 4. Vietnamese government crippled by internal differences; General Hinh, Vietnamese chief of staff, told the American charg�n Saigon on 3 May that his differences with Defense Minister Quat had brought everything to a standstill and that demoralization in the army was increasing daily. He held Quat responsible for the fact that the mobilization decree is- sued four weeks ago had not been carried out. Hinh felt that only Bao Dal's return could correct the situation. The following day Quat told the charg�hat it was Hinh who was holding up action on mobilization. Comment: Relations between Hinh and Quat, the two senior government officials now in Vietnam, have long been strained. Their present quarreling and the absence of both Bao Dai and the premier leave Vietnam without an effective national government. Bao Dal's announcement that it is his duty "to remain for some time in Europe to defend Vietnam on the international scale" apparently precludes any early remedy for the situation. EASTERN EUROPE 5. French ambassador believes Yugoslavia moving closer to West: 5 TnP SFCRFT Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943- 6 May 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 New Comment: Yugoslays are considering closer relations with the West. With Western economic aid scheduled to end in another year, the Yugoslays probably realize that their ability to ob- tain future aid and favorable trade relations will be lessened if they continue to emphasize their "independent" position under present world conditions. In addition to economic preoccupations, the Yugoslays may desire to play a more important role in future European planning. WESTERN EUROPE 6. French minister favors partition of Indochina: French finance minister Faure told Ambassador Dillon on 4 May that the best solution to the Indochina problem would be a prompt armistice leading to partition, without regard to Bao DaL Faure opposes American intervention, but still believes that the threat of it can make the Communists "reasonable" at Geneva. Faure said that the "real danger" is the possibility of a French government based on Communist support, and that he favors diverting defense expenditures to improve the French standard of living, thereby reducing the Communist vote. He doubts that the time is "ripe for EDC," and believes American atomic weap- ons can safeguard Europe at present. - 6 - 'MP .cFPRFT Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 6 May 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 � 01 ha L.J4,1A.Li wftwo Dillon believes that Faure may be the next premier if the Laniel government falls soon. Comment: This is the first time a French official has stated that Vietnamese views will be ignored if France has a chance to reach a settlement at Geneva. A French Foreign Ministry spokesman at Geneva told Under Secretary Smith that his government is unable to agree on a plan. He indicated, however, that the French were think- ing in terms of a settlement based on Viet Minh evacuation of Laos and Cambodia,to be followed by cease-fire arrangements in Vietnam, with a regrouping of French forces in key areas. 7 P/111 ri Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2026943 6 May 54