CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/06
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
02026943
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
7
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
May 6, 1954
File:
Attachment | Size |
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689477].pdf | 211.28 KB |
Body:
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6 May 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
r. I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: PO 03
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: e47/2147:g_. REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
76
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Communists may propose elections in all three Associated
States (page 3).
2. Visas requested for additional Viet Minh delegates to Geneva
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Soviet internal developments
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese government crippled by internal differences (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. French ambassador believes Yugoslavia moving closer to
T7est (paze 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. French minister favors partition of Indochina (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Communists may propose elections in all three Associated States:
International News Service correspondent
Kingsbury Smith informed the American
delegation at Geneva on 4 May that Popov,
editor of the Soviet English-language paper
News, had told him that the Communists would not propose partition or
a coalition government for Vietnam but instead would ask for supervised
nationwide elections in the three Associated States. He said the Commu-
nists realized that they would probably lose elections in Laos and Cam-
bodia but thought they would win 60 percent of the vote in Vietnam.
In reply to Smith's inquiry whether UN super-
vision was contemplated, Popov said the Communists preferred to have
"neutral supervision."
Comment: Two Communist journalists have
stated on previous occasions that the Communists would propose elec-
tions in Indochina.
Communist formulae for elections in the
cases of Germany and Korea have called for formation of a provisional
government combining the rival regimes, ihichwouI4 later hold "free
elections" without "foreign interference."
2. Visas requested for additional Viet Minh delegates to Geneva:
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Comment: Five Viet Minh representatives
arrived in Geneva on 4 May and in their first press release referred to
"the national rights" of the people of Laos and Cambodia as well as
Vietnam. The requests for a total of 34 visas suggest that the Commu-
nists may have at hand delegations to represent the Viet Minh-sponsored
regimes of Laos and Cambodia.
SOVIET UNION
3. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Soviet internal developments:
Ambassador Bohlen believes it. possible that
the recent formation of the Committee of
State Security (KGB) was intended to ensure
collective control over security aspects of
the MVD apparatus. He points out that for the first time this function
is placed, at least theoretically, under the Council of Ministers as a
whole. While the committee will presumably deal only with "Secret"
police affairs, there is doubt whether it will actually administer the
full security apparatus with its millions of informers or whether it will
merely supervise these operations within the MVD.
Commenting on the increased public prestige
of Party Secretary Khrushchev, Bohlen notes that the principle of col-
lective rule always contains the inherent, continuing possibility of rivalry
and dissension at the top. He stresses, however, that division is more
likely to arise over deep policy differences than purely personal rival-
ries.
Comment: Other recent information has
disclosed that the KGB will be a separate organization controlling both
overt and covert functions of the security apparatus. The creation of
such a committee directly under the Council of Ministers also suggests
that it may have been given the responsibility for all foreign intelligence
efforts.
Khrushchevis rise increases the likelihood
of a struggle for power within the collective leadership.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese government crippled by internal differences;
General Hinh, Vietnamese chief of staff,
told the American charg�n Saigon on
3 May that his differences with Defense
Minister Quat had brought everything to
a standstill and that demoralization in the army was increasing daily.
He held Quat responsible for the fact that the mobilization decree is-
sued four weeks ago had not been carried out. Hinh felt that only Bao
Dal's return could correct the situation.
The following day Quat told the charg�hat
it was Hinh who was holding up action on mobilization.
Comment: Relations between Hinh and Quat,
the two senior government officials now in Vietnam, have long been
strained. Their present quarreling and the absence of both Bao Dai and
the premier leave Vietnam without an effective national government.
Bao Dal's announcement that it is his duty "to remain for some time in
Europe to defend Vietnam on the international scale" apparently precludes
any early remedy for the situation.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. French ambassador believes Yugoslavia moving closer to West:
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Comment:
Yugoslays are considering closer
relations with the West. With Western economic aid scheduled to end
in another year, the Yugoslays probably realize that their ability to ob-
tain future aid and favorable trade relations will be lessened if they
continue to emphasize their "independent" position under present world
conditions.
In addition to economic preoccupations, the
Yugoslays may desire to play a more important role in future European
planning.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. French minister favors partition of Indochina:
French finance minister Faure told
Ambassador Dillon on 4 May that the best
solution to the Indochina problem would be
a prompt armistice leading to partition,
without regard to Bao DaL Faure opposes American intervention, but
still believes that the threat of it can make the Communists "reasonable"
at Geneva.
Faure said that the "real danger" is the
possibility of a French government based on Communist support, and
that he favors diverting defense expenditures to improve the French
standard of living, thereby reducing the Communist vote. He doubts
that the time is "ripe for EDC," and believes American atomic weap-
ons can safeguard Europe at present.
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Dillon believes that Faure may be the next
premier if the Laniel government falls soon.
Comment: This is the first time a French
official has stated that Vietnamese views will be ignored if France has
a chance to reach a settlement at Geneva.
A French Foreign Ministry spokesman at
Geneva told Under Secretary Smith that his government is unable to
agree on a plan. He indicated, however, that the French were think-
ing in terms of a settlement based on Viet Minh evacuation of Laos and
Cambodia,to be followed by cease-fire arrangements in Vietnam, with a
regrouping of French forces in key areas.
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