CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02026945
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 2, 1954

for
Release: 2019/08/13
1NA/4
3.54
2 July 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. Sj
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: /70 /
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: Zi:Ziefa REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
Tvz D CrOIDE"T
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. France reported considering recognition of Communist China
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2.
FAR EAST
3. Chinese may be preparing to withdraw five more armies from
Korea (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. French-Vietnamese clash over delta withdrawal may be immi-
nent (page 5).
5. French to begin withdrawal from northern Tonkin delta about
15 July (page 5).
6.
7.
SOUTH ASIA
comments on Nehru's Asian policy (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Iranian-British differences on compensation threaten oil
settlement (page 8).
2
TOP SCRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945-
2 July 54
_ Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
'411�00
GENERAL
I. France reported considering recognition of Communist China:
Since the meeting of Mendes-France and
Chou En-lai in Bern, the American
embassy in Paris has gained the impres-
sion that France may be considering
recogmx ng Communist 2hina. High Foreign Ministry officials are
reportedly being sounded out for the ambassadorial post, and Marc
jacquet, Laniel's secretary of state for the Associated States, is
reported to be seeking the position.
Comment: In early June, the assembly's
Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously requested a meeting with the
foreign minister to set a date for discussing a motion calling for
recognition of Communist China. The committee requested that the
discussion take place at the latest immediately after the Geneva
conference. The French assembly is almost certain to consider
recognition a necessary step in an over-all settlement in the Far
East.
Jacquet may be counting on a reward for
helping Mendes- France become premier by leaking the secret mili-
tary report on Indochina to the press last May and thereby embarrassing
the Laniel government.
SOVIET UNION
2.
- 3 -
T 11
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
2 July 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
'44�0�
14400
FAR EAST
3. Chinese may be preparing to withdraw five more armies from Korea:
The US army reports that information from
a usually reliable source indicates the
possible withdrawal from Korea of all or
part of five more Chinese Communist ar-
mies. Elements of the 21st, 23rd and 24th Armies have been reported
In East China and elements of the 47th and 54th in Northeast China.
The army notes that even if these with-
drawals are confirmed, the Chinese Communists would retain a high
capability for reinforcing the Korean theater, since more than half of
all the Chinese Communist armies are either still in Korea, or are in
a position to return on relatively short notice from Manchuria or North
China.
Comment: The withdrawal of these armies
would reduce the number of Chinese armies in Korea to six, and would
make a total of 14 withdrawn from Korea since or just prior to the
armistice.
elements of the above,m'eptioned armies were still in Korea on 26 June,
suggesting that the units reported in China may be advance elements.
Departure of the remaining elements of these armies from Korea might
presage a complete Chinese withdrawal, possibly in preparation for
demanding a UN withdrawal.
- 4 -
2 July 54
Drcr D
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
�
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. French-Vietnamese clash over delta withdrawal may be imminent:
Pham Ngoc Chi, one of the two Vietnamese
bishops of southern Tonkin, told the Amen-
can consul in Hanoi the French have repudi-
ated earlier assurances to him that they would
defend his area. He reports that some Vietnamese troops have refused
to obey orders to withdraw, and are branding as "traitors" Vietnamese
officers who have transmitted French withdrawal orders.
It is his understanding that premier-desig-
nate Ngo Dinh Diem has threatened to declare Vietnam's independence
outside the French Union if the withdrawal is not stopped. Chi contends
that the time has come for the United States to deal directly with the
Vietnamese, who are willing to use American arms and advice in re-
sisting the Viet Minh,
Governor Tri of north Vietnam is taking
steps to evacuate a maximum number of Vietnamese civilians from the
southern delta to the Hanoi area, although Vietnamese officials are
aware that the uncontrolled influx of refugees might infect Hanoi resi-
dents with the near-panic reported prevalent in the southern part of the
delta. The American consul understands that the French military
authorities are opposed to the quartering of more refugees in the Hanoi
area, and may not know of Governor Tri's plans.
Comment: Vietnamese officials, knowing
that French military support was indispensable, have for years held in
check their bitterness toward the French. The withdrawal of this sup-
port in what the Vietnamese regard as an underhanded manner may
crystallize sentiment among certain Vietnamese leaders in favor of a
desperate, "go-it-alone"- policy.
5. French to begin withdrawal from northern Tonkin delta about 15 July:
The French will begin a withdrawal from
the northern part of the Tonkin delta on or
about 15 July,
- 5 -
2 July 54
Tr) p c PT
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 002026945
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
Nee
The new French perimeter in this area will
generally follow the Canal des Rapides and will include the coastal
region up to the China border (see map, p. 7). The southern perim-
eter, starting from the sea, will follow the That Binh River, the Canal
des Bambous to the Red River, thence to Do Xai and across to Quang
Nguyen.
:his line is in
accord with a French-Viet Minh agreement reached by military mis-
sions in Geneva and Paris. Principal additional points in the agree-
ment are: (1) there will be no attacks on convoys used to effect this
withdrawal; (2) the Viet Minh will not undertake any sabotage opera-
tions in Hanoi or Haiphong; and (3) on withdrawal from an area, there
will be no destruction of any economic assets.
Comment: The French are now rapidly
implementing their plan for evacuation of the southern Tonkin delta,
particularly in the Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Phat Diem and But Chu
areas. Reports of a heavy flow of tonnage from Hanoi to Haiphong
suggest that the French may also be planning to abandon Hanoi itself.
SOUTH ASIA
comments on Nehru's Asian policy:
believes Prime Minister Nehru has under-
taken the "difficult task" of convincing
small nations like Burma that Peiping is
sincere in its declarations of nonintervention
in t ea a rs 0 ot er countries
Nehru feels any resist-
ance by force to Peiping would bring disastrous results, "as it did in
Korea and Indochina," and that an attempt must therefore be made to
obtain "acceptable conditions," stressing an "Asia for the Asians"
theme.
6
2 July 54
rnr) CP VT
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 CO2026945
non iVtc.
Phu
Ye' ("h� Tuyen Quang
\
Yen Bay
kPhu Doon
\
\
5