CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02026946
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 3, 1954

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TO CHET
3 Suly 1954
Copy No. SO
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. -7 4-
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
171 DECLASSIFIED
. CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20/a
ALITH: HR 70-2
up.TE-,:rizieo RE:VIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.3(h)(2
3.5(c)
ARCITIVA1 VECOBJJ
PLEASE RETURN TO
AgENCY * A.4:0 /
77/7/44,1 /4,1
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. French ambassador sees improvement in relations between
Britain and India (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French staff officer asserts French intend to abandon entire
Tonkin delta (page 3).
3. Diem followers considering a deal with Viet Minh (page 4).
4. Burmese "not hostile" to a Southeast Asian defense organization
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. jordan king advises "fire on Israelis when fired on" ag 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Early resignation of Italian foreign minister foreseen by Christian
Democratic leaders (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Venezuela angry over loss of opportunity to air Costa Rican "Commu-
nist problem" (page ,7,).
8. Nicaraguan president warns that Guatemalan situation remains
Critical (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. French ambassador sees improvement in relations between Britaln
aria India:
relations between Britain and
India have improved recently as the result
of British initiative, especially during the
Geneva conference.
Comment Relations between London and
New Delhi have been very good, at least since 1949. Heightened '
British activity in New Delhi recently appears to have been directed
at broadening existing understanding on issues such as Indochina and
Southeast Asian defense.
There is some evidence Nehru may be attracted
to the idea of an "Asian Locarno." It is, however, still not clear how
much success the British have had in inducing him to admit the necessity
for a collective defense arrangement in Southeast Asia.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French staff officer asserts French intend to abandon entire Tonkin
Colonel Gracieux, General Salan's chief of
staff, informed the American charg�n
Saigon on 1 July that French military plans
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call for a withdrawal to the Haiphong area and that a prolonged defense
is not contemplated even then.
Gracieux said he "hoped" that forces evac-
uated through Haiphong could be landed near Dong Hot in Annam, where
the best defense line could be formed in the Chalk Hills running lat-
erally toward Thakhek, Laos (see map, po 5). He also thought that
reinforcements could be brought in to this line via Thakhek. Gracieux
said, however, that this regroupment must take place before 1 October,
when the monsoon will make landing near Dong Hot difficult.
Comment: The French may be expected to
try to establish a line some�wTere north of Tourane, the site of their
best airfield in Indochina and the only one capable of supporting sus-
tained operations of heavy, medium and et light bombers.
Diem followers considering a deal with Viet Minh:
Members of Premier-designate Ngo Dinh
Diem's entourage feel that Vietnam is being
by-passed in the current Geneva negotia-
tions and are now seriously considering an
Hoang
Diem, is said to be shuttling between Paris
had talks with the pro-Viet Minh scientist
approacn to the Viet Minh,
Xuan Han, an associate of
and Geneva, where he has
Buu Hoi,
Buu Hoi is expected in Saigon shortly,
probably to serve as a go-between for Diem and the Viet Minh. Diem
Is opposed to partition and will press for general elections as part of
a settlement.
Comment: Diem, like many anti-Commu-
nist Vietnamese, has been greatly angered by what he regards as a
French sellout to the Viet Mirth in Tonkin. It is quite possible that
he is coming to believe that a direct Vietnam-Viet Minh settlement
would prove less disadvantageous to Vietnam than to abide by France's
apparent willingness to surrender Tonkin without a fight.
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Sire
Diem may calculate that the chances, how-
ever slight, of an eventual political overthrow of the Viet Minh within
a unified Vietnam are nevertheless greater than the possibility of a
successful defense of the southern half of Vietnam.
4. Burmese "not hostile" to a Southeast Asian defense organization:
\ Burma is "not hostile" to the
creation of a Southeast Asian defense organ-
ization, since it would be directed against
Communist mi 1 ry expansion, however,
It would be difficult for Burma to join such an organization because it
would involve alignment with "one of the two power blocs."
Comment:
the Chinese Commu-
nist premier was unable to persuade the Burmese that their best inter-
est lies in joining a Communist-sponsored Asian "peace bloc," as
earlier reports had suggested might be the case.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Jordan king advises "fire on Israelis when fired on":
Jordan's King Hussain, in commenting on the
Israeli Jordanian hostilities in Jerusalem,
told Ambassador Mallory that citizens must
be protected in their homes and that he has
erocniseiethat whenever fired upon, fire should be returned.."
Mallory says this statement is counter to the
caution urged by General Glubb, Arab Legion commander, who has tried
to restrain the Jordanians.
Comment: The current fighting is the most
serious in many months. 1t7b11ows the near-breakdown of the UN truce
supervision Ina.chinery. While the truce will probably be restored in
Palestine, the over-all picture is one of Increasing deterioration.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. Early resignation of Italian foreign minister foreseen by Christian
Democratic leaders:
Former premiers De Gasperi and Fanfani
have indicated in recent interviews with
Ambassador Luce in Rome that they expect
Foreign Minister Piccioni to leave the
government shortly. De Gasperi, who said that the Chamber debate
on EDC should start before the summer recess and not be tied
to Trieste, described Picciont as obsessed with the idea of "doing
better than Pella had done re Trieste." He said that Piccioni had
originally refused to sign any agreements with the United States pend-
ing a Trieste solution. Piccioni modified this stand only after Premier
Scelba said he would sign a Trieste settlement if Piccioni refused.
Comment: Piccioni is the only important
Italian cabinet official opposed to agreement separately on
the Trieste and EDC issues. His removal from the cabinet would
greatly improve the parliamentary prospects of both issues.
The success of the De Gasperi and
Fanfani factions in winning control of the Christian Democrats at
the recent party congress will probably hasten Piccioni's departure.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Venezuela angry over loss of opporturkity to air sCosta Rican "Commu-
nist problem":
Venezuelan president Perez is angry because
the postponement of the OAS conference on
Guatemala has denied him the opportunity to
air his views on the "Communist problem"
In Costa Rica before the assembled Latin American foreign ministers.
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The strong Venezuelan reaction is attributable in part to the American
decision to ship arms to Costa Rica. The Venezuelan ambassador in
Washington has been instructed to protest the postponement to the
Department of State.
Comment: Caracas originally opposed
OAS discussion of the Guatemalan problem because it felt a consult-
ative meeting would jeopardize Venezuelan plans to provoke a
revolution in Costa Rica.
Long-standing Costa Rican fear of such a
move was heightened on 22 June when a Venezuelan plane dropped
scurrilous leaflets over the Costa Rican capital. The Costa Ricans
feel vulnerable and have sought American support. The Costa Rican
government is anti-Communist.
8. Nicaraguan president warns that Guatemalan situation remains
critical:
Nicaraguan president Somoza told
Ambassador Whelan on 1 July that the
situation in Guatemala is still critical.
He said two Guatemalan Communists were
directing armed civilians in guerrilla warfare and that eliminating
Communism from Guatemala will be "a tougher job than most peo-
ple realize."
Somoza believes that Castillo Armas shoukd
head the new government and added that if he later becomes "too
ambitious," Somoza can "take care of him."
Comment: Sporadic Communist-incited
violence has been reported since on the Guatemalan Pacific
slopes, where Communists have been most effective in the past two
years in conditioning the mestizo farm hands to violent action. Though
the possibility of continued violence in this area cannot be eliminated,
the return of army units from the front subsequent to the signing of the
peace agreement on 2 July should provide sufficient armed strength to
restore order in the affected area. Early on 2 July Guatemalan junta
member Lt. Colonel Cruz minimized the seriousness of this violence.
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Although Colonel Monzon temporarily heads
the new junta established in the 2 July agreement with Castillo Arraas,
the latter appears to be in the stronger position. It has not yet become
evident, however, which leader will command the loyalty of the majority
of the army officers.
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