CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02026948
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 15, 1954

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15 July 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DocumENt No.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE :,37//a0 REVIEWE
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOFSQET / A
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1..
FAR EAST
2. Mao Tse-tung reported to be very ill (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French adviser promoting Cochinchina state (page 4).
4. Burmese officials define attitude toward Communist China
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on resumption of Suez base negotiations (page 6).
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SOVIET UNION
FAR EAST
2. Mao Tse-tung reported to be very ill:
was said to
of Shanghai
Mao Tse-tung is suffering from cancer of
the throat and a kidney ailment,
who says that he
with a mend of a doctor on a board
which examined Mao in June. The board
have estimated that Mao had a year to live0
talked f
The same sourcattributes to the mayor
the view that friction will develop, after Mao's death,
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between Liu Shao-chi as the proponent of external expansion, and
Chu Teh and Chou En-lai as leaders favoring internal development
first.
Comment: Mao, who is 60, has been
reported for years to be suffering from various severe disorders.
He was absent from the Chinese Communist Party's important
plenary session last February, and a photograph taken in March sug-
gested he had indeed been ilL
Peiping's new constitution also suggests
that Mao has been or will be obliged to reduce his activity as chair-
man of the party and government. The constitution gives great
prestige but less authority to the government chairman and provides
for succession "for reasons of health" or if the office "falls vacant,"
Chinese Communist press treatment of
Mao's lieutenants has indicated that he will eventually be succeeded
by some combination from among Liu Shao-chi, Chou En-lai and
Chu TOL There is no good evidence to support speculation that they
favor divergent policies.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
French adviser promoting Cochinchina state:
Marcel Mingant, a French adviser to the
Vietnamese government, is apparently
acting as promoter for a separate Cochin-
china state, the American embassy in
aigon concludes on the basis of a recent conversation with him.
Mingant said that Premier Ngo Dinh Diem should immediately be
replaced by a triumvirate consisting of the former prime ministers
Tran Van Huu, Nguyen Van Tam, and General Nguyen Van Xuan.
He argues that this would give Cochinchina several years' grace
in which to establish a firm front against the Viet Minh, supported by
a build-up in Cambodia and Thailand.
Comment: There is fairly conclusive
evidence that the French are seeking to undercut the Ngo Dinh Diem
government to prevent Diem from obstructing the French surrender
of Tonkin to the Viet Minh. A "Cochinchina state" would be weak
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and would only serve as a disguise for the continuation of French
authority in the south. Although formation of such a state would
antagonize Vietnamese nationalists, and thus serve Viet 1V1inh
Interests, the French presumably count on American guarantees
to make it work.
Mingant's candidates have long been
closely identified with French policies. All held high offices in the
French-sponsored Cochinchina Republic of 1946-49.
4. Burmese officials define attitude toward Communist China:
Burma's acting foreign minister, Kyaw
Nyein, recently told Ambassador Sebald
that the Burmese government had no
illusions regarding the permanency of the
ou- u ara Ion o principles governing Sino-Burmese relations.
Kyaw Nyein stated, however, that the declaration gives Burma
"several years reprieve" from Chinese Communist aggression.
Other Burmese leaders have told Sebald
they do not fear internal subversion but believe Burma will almost
certainly become a target of Chinese Communist aggression. They
estimate that in five years Peiping will be in a position to take such
action.
Both the Burmese president and premier
have stated that "when the chips are down" Burma would resist
aggression of any kind with whatever means were available.
Comment: Growing hostility on the part
of the Burmese toward Peiping has been evident for some time.
Their acceptance, at this time, of the theory that the Chinese Com-
munists desire a period of peace in order to consolidate their control
at home before engaging in new "adventures" appears to be primarily
the result of Nehru's influence.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on resumption of Suez base negotiations:
In contrast to optimism expressed by the
press, there appear still to be serious
obstacles to an early settlement of the Suez
dispute. The Egyptians refuse to consider
the British proposals involving civilian technicians and reduced base
facilities as essentially a "new deal" calling for new concessions on
Egypt's part.
Egypt has objected to three points in the
latest British proposals for a Suez base settlement: the duration of
the agreement; the time required for complete evacuation of British
troops; and the inclusion of Iran among the countries whose involve-
ment in war would automatically make the base available to the
British. The new British plan was presented at informal meetings
In Cairo on 10 and 11 Iuly.
Prime Minister Nasr has stated that he
cannot accept an agreement of longer than seven years duration or
a period of more than 15 months for full British evacuation--both
points agreed on in negotiations last year. The British maintain,
however, that the new approach to a settlement requires new con-
sideration of these issues.
Nasr told an official of the American em-
bassy, in commenting on the latest meeting with the British, "We
seem to be in agreement on points on which we formerly disagreed
and in disagreement on points on which we formerly were agreed."
Nasr appeared uncertain how to handle the problem posed by the
British position on the two issues.
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