CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/02/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046539
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 5, 1952

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SECUTf INFORMATION
5 February 1952
Copy No. 49
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLAS
DECLACSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR
DATEnt* # ?II REVIEWER:
ii"
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
SECURITY INFORMATION
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SOUTH ASIA
1. Bank of Ceylon finances rubber shipment to China age 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Hungarian-Iranian trade agreement may include aviation-type oil
(page 3).
3. Former Syrian President reportedly plans coup (page 4).
4. Wafd Party may hamper Anglo-Egyptian negotiations (page 4).
EASTERN UROPE
5. Britain proposes end to tripartite approach on aid to Yugoslavia
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. French air build-up endangered by pilot shortage (page 5).
7. American defense orders fall short of Italy's expectations (page 6).
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SOUTH ASIA
1. Bank of Ceylon finances rubber shipment to China:
The Bank of Ceylon has opened a credit
to cover the shipment to China of 1,200
tons of rubber on the Russian ship Nicolaev,
now in Colombo harbor. Additional credits
are expected momentarily, and Colombo circles believe the ship may
load up to 2,000 tons.
Comment: With other producing areas
banning the export of rubber to China, Ceylon is now the only le-
gitimate source available to the Chinese Communists. They have
had difficulty in finding shipping space for transporting rubber from
Ceylon; the only recent shipments have been one of 5,500 tons last
October and one of 450 tons in January�
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Hungarian-Iranian trade agreement may include aviation-type oil:
The' Hungarian Foreign Ministry on 18
January instructed its trade representative
in Tehran to include 3,000 tons of aviation-
type lubricating oil in the trade agreement
being negotiated between the two countries.
The lubricating oil, as well as 50,000 tons of boiler fuel and 5,000
tons of crude, was to be included in a supplement to the barter
agreement,
Comment; The Hungarian Minister in
Tehran had told Ambassador Henderson that Hungary was interested
in buying oil for agricultural use. The small amount of crude
mentioned suggests that Hungary is interested in promoting Iranian
intransigence in the oil dispute rather than in buying large quantities
of oil. Boiler fuel is presumably included as a concession to the
Iranians, who would manufacture this fuel as abylproduct of normal
operations, since the Soviet bloc is not believed in need of this type
of oil.
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3. Former Syrian President reportedly plans coup:
Former Syrian President Quwwatli and
ex-Prime Minister Mardam arrived in
Beirut, some 40 miles from the Syrian
frontier, on 1 February to confer with their
supporters on plans to depose Lieutenant Colonel Shishakli and regain
power in Syria.
Simultaneously, six army officers, reportedly
Quwwatli's supporters, were arrested in Syria.
Comment: President Quwwatli, able and
friendly toward the US, was deposed by the first army coup in April
1949 and has been living in exile in Cairo. He retains considerable
popular following in Syria and has Egyptian and Saudi Arabian support.
In view of Shishakli's tight control in Syria, his assassination would
probably be necessary before any independent government took over.
4. Wafd Party may hamper Anglo-Egyptian negotiations:
The Secretary General of the Wafd Party
has informed Egyptian Prime Minister Ali
Maher that the Wafdists "must be more
intransigent" on the question of negotiations
with Britain than they were when they were in power. He indicated
his doubt, therefore, that Wafd participation in the National Front
Committee would be of any aid to the present cabinet
The American Ambassador in Cairo states
that despite this warning the Prime Minister still wishes to form the
National Front Committee, which is to backstop the government in any
discussions with Britain. The Ambassador fears that the selection of
former Foreign Minister Salaheddin as a Wafd representative on the
committee "bodes not good."
Comment: Implementation of the Wafd Party
threat to become a strong opposition would endanger the existence of
the present government as well as the success of any Anglo -Egyptian
discussions.
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EASTERN EUROPE
5. Britain proposes end to tripartite approach on aidto Yugoslaviaz
The British Ambassador in Belgrade has
offered to accept the higher American
figure for financial aid to Yugoslavia for
the first six months of this year in return
for assurances that the tripartite method of approach will be changed
after 1 July. Stressing Britain's domestic financial difficulties, the
Ambassador argued that his government had wished to keep the
current aid level low to avoid setting a precedent for the next fiscal
year.
Commenting on the sharp change in the
British position, US Ambassador Allen notes that previous British
objections were based on charges that the Yugoslays were misrep-
resenting their economic situation.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. French air build-up endangered by pilot shortage:
The French Air Force expansion program
may collapse because of the shortage of
rained pilots unless American physical
standards are lowered to enable academically
quali.ted French students to receive training in the United States.
Of the 172 cadets scheduled to come to the US at the end of February,
only 50 are expected to meet physical and language requirements.
Comment z The French Air Force has less
than 3,000 pilots, and French pilot schools, which have been handi-
capped by a shortage of qualified training personnel, have been
planning on graduating only 320 pilots a year.
According to official NATO estimates, pilot
training is not expected to affect the over-all NATO air build-up for
1952, but a deficiency in training this year can have very serious
effects on the continuing build-up in 1953 and 19540
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7. American defense orders fall short of Italy's expectations:
The Italian Government is becoming highly
skeptical of US promises to place contracts
for war materiel in Italy. The slowness of
negotiations and the United States plan to let
only 500 million dollars worth of such contracts in all of Europe lead
Italy to feel that any orders it receives will not help much in reducing
its dollar deficit. Another factor is the report that the United States
will order no vehicles, which represent 40 percent of Italy's potential
contribution.
Comment: Neutralists and opposition
elements will be quick to seize upon this development to attack the
foreign policy of the De Gasperi government in the impending munici-
pal campaigns. The Italian Government had hoped that 500 million
dollars worth of contracts would be let in Italy alone.
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