CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/06/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046572
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 8, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/08 CO2046572
8 June 1952
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Copy No. 5 3
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE N CLASS.
0 DECLASSTIED
CLASS. CHANCED TO2LSzfarIL._
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AMR JR 70-2.
DATE: WIER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
PECJJRITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Communists order MIGis to concentrate on UN ground-attack
planes (page 3).
2. Replacement of Rhee considered necessary to preserve democratic
processes (page 3).
3. Comment on Communist plans for Pacific "peace" conference
(page 4).
4. Chiang Kai-shek refuses to hear criticism of Formosa's defenses
(page 4).
6. Letourneau expected to ask considerable increase in American aid
next year (page 5).
6. Viet Minh viewed as war-weary (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
. French firm awarded contract to drill for oil in Afghanistan (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Hungarian Ministry criticized for bauxite production failure (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Adenauer optimistic on early West German ratification of treaties
(page 7).
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FAR EAST
1. Communists order MIG's to concentrate on UN ground-attack planes:
Several times during the latter part of
MIG-15 pilots were instructed over
ay,
in
Manchuria and Korea to concentrate on UN
ground-attack planes and to consider the F-86 Sabres only as secondar
targets.
The Air Force believes that this development
may reflect the effectiveness of UN attacks on supply lines by ground-
attack planes.
2. Replacement of Rhee considered necessary to preserve democratic
processes:
American Charge Lightner believes that any
solution of the political dispute in South Korea
which leaves President Rhee in power would
represent a capitulation by the Assembly from
which it would never recover. He points out that Rhee would continue
to whittle away at the opposition by continuing arrests, with his own
supporters stepping into the vacancies. Hence, any compromise which
allows Rhee to keep his office would, in Lightner's opinion, be as
fatal to democratic processes as Rhee's plan to dissolve the Assembly
and call for new elections.
The Prime Minister, who has recently
appeared sympathetic to the Assembly opposition, advised Lightner
on 4 June that without American or UN assurances of support for
constitutional government the Assembly opposition might as well
capitulate now as later.
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3. Comment on Communist plans for Pacific "peace" conference:
Delegates from 20 Asian and American
countries, meeting in Peiping from 3 to 6 Junes set the last week of
September 1952 as the date for a Communist-sponsored "peace"
conference of 500 representatives of Pacific states.
The September conference, according to
Peiping's preliminary statements will call upon Pacific countries to
oppose Japanese "remilitarization, " to "settle peacefully" the Korean
conflicts and to "solve reasonably" the conflicts in Indochina and Malaya.
Peiping's pronouncements suggest that the
Soviet bloc does not anticipate major developments in Korea or South-
east Asia in the next four months. They also support previous in-
dications of a temporary shift of emphasis in Asian Communist tactics
away from the use of military force.
4. Chiang Kai-shek refuses to hear criticism of Formosa's defenses:
j a survey of the
defenses of Formosa in April and May dis-
closed that troop morale was poor and
defense construction inadequate. It also uncovered serious friction
between political agents and military officers and the fact that many
commanders lacked the respect of their troops.
This information was so "discouraging" to
Chiang Kai-shek that he is said to have halted the first oral report
and to have refused to listen to further reports or recommendations.
Comment: Information from other sources
generally supports the conausions reached by the survey team. Chiang
Kai-shek's refusal to accept criticism was an important factor in
Nationalist failures during and after World War E.
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5. Letourneau expected to ask considerable increase in American aid
next year
French
Minister Resident Letourneau will request
in Washington in mid-June only a small
increase in American aid for Indochina in 1952,
6tit will seek assurances, if not commitments, of a substantially larger
contribution for 1953,
France's total 1953 budget for Indochina opera-
tions is expected to equal about 1. 4 billion dollars, of which France
would be "unable" to finance more than one billion. The French "presum-
ably" expect the United States to make up the difference.
Comment The anticipated request for 1953
reflects no increase over 1052 in the French financial effort, but a
rise of nearly 300 percent in the American share. Such an increase
would absorb the bulk of the additional 300 million dollars of over-all
American support proposed by France earlyiin May.
6. Viet Minh viewed as war-weary
_ _ _
"Viet Minh forces have been
weakened by heavy losses and are becoming
war-weary, and that General Salmi, commander
of French forces, is optimistic about the military situation in Vietnam.
Bao Data who is well-informed about the Viet Minh, also has informa-
tion indicating its growing weakness, and that this prtbably hastened
his decision to establish a strong authoritarian government which could
bring order to the French-controlled zones.
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ritz. SECRET
Comment: A deterioration in the Viet Minh
position brought about by recent French clearing operations in the
Tonkin delta, a continuing improvement in the French logistic position
thanks to American aid, and the failure of the Viet Minh to attempt a
major offensi$ since February may be cited as causes for this
reported optimism.
The Viet Minh is expected, however, to
utilize the rainy season to train its forces, bring units up to strength,
and stockpile supplies from China. Prior to the Viet Minh's heavy
offensive in northwestern Tonkin last September and its sustained
campaign from December to February, similar reports of weakness
were received.
SOUTH ASIA
7. French firm awarded contract to drill for oil in Afghanistan:
A United Nations oil expert has reported to
the American Embassy in Kabul that a
French firm hap been awarded a contract to
drill for oil at Sar-i-Pul in north-central
.A g anis an. Political considerations were reportedly the deciding
factor, since the King felt that a French company would be less
objectionable to the USSR than an American ones.
The American Embassy believes that it
will be at least six months before drilling begins.
Comment: The USSR would find French
exploration for oil less than one hundred miles from the Soviet border
almost as distasteful as American. The presence of any Westerners
in the area might invoke a Soviet protest or demand for rights in other
parts of Afghanistan. The USSR is already negotiating for the installa-
tion of oil storage tanks on the outskirts of Kabul, and has informally
offbred the Afghan Government assistance in drilling test holes.
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EASTERN EUROPE
8. Hungarian Ministry criticized for bauxite production failure:
A scathing editorial in the Hungarian
Communist Party newspaper on 5 June
criticited the Ministry of Mining for the
failure of the bauxite mines to meet their
cltiatis for the first quarter of 1952�
In view of the importance of Hungarian
bauxite to Soviet planning, the US Legation in Budapest believes that
serious repercussions against the Ministry are likely. It notes that
a delegation of Soviet production experts recently visited Hungary
for several months.
Comment All bauxite mines in Hungary
are owned by a joint Hungarian-Soviet corporation and almost half
of their production goes to the USSR. Hungary accounted for more
than one-third of the Soviet Orbit's total bauxite production in 1950.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Adenauer optimistic on early West German ratification of treaties
Chancellor Adenauer believes that the grow-
ing support of his coalition partners will
ensure ratification of the EDC treaty and the
contractual agreement before the summer
recess o ar iamen he recess, however, will have to be post-
poned until August.
American officials in Bonn warn that the
Constitutional Court issue will first have to be settled and the govern-
ment's position in the Senate strengthened. Furthermore, US Senate
approval of the agreement is an "indispensible prerequisite" for
early ratification.
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Comment: West German ratification might
be delayed by such possible developments as Allied-Rusqian unity
discussions, the eruption of the Saar issue, or attempts by coalition
groups to indulge in last-minute log-rolling.
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