CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/06/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046573
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 15, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
15 June 1962
Copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE ffsl CLASS.
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MASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ;4�Yril
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DATE:bekt I REVIEWS%
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEC NFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Ambassador Kennan believes Soviet policy still based on imminent
collapse of capitalist world (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Soviet tactical units reportedly moving towards Korean front
(page 4).
3. Thailand threatens to change sides in case of Chinese aggression
(page 4).
4. Opportunistic Socialist clique directing Burmese foreign relations
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iranian Chief of Staff warns of possible Tudeh coup dt etat (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Increased work quotas in Hungary apparently due to Soviet pressure
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Director of French police says, Communist Party seriously weakened
(page 7).
* * * *
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SOVIET UNION
I. Ambassador Kennan believes Soviet policy still based on imminent
collapse of capitalist world
Ambassador Kennan considers that the most
important and effective blow which can be
dealt the USSR at this time would be a psy-
chological attack designed to shake the
rem in s con ence e basic thesis that the capitalist world is
unstable, upon which he feels Soviet policy is still based.
rae Ambassador says that Soviet behavior
towards the West is predicated on the persistent hope that the present
structure of the Western world will prove increasingly inadequate to
withstand the steady attacks of the world Communist movement The
Kremlin, therefore, considers a war against the West as unnecessary
as well as dangerous, but at the same time is also unwilling to have
any "real, as distinct from demonstrative," negotiations with these
Western governments which it considers short-lived.
In the present, shrill exaggerations of
Soviet propaganda, the Ambassador reads an extreme nervousness
and perhaps even an advanced degree of inner doubt about the sound-
ness of this thesis.
The idea that the Communists are wrong
in their analysis of the trend of Western society, and that in the for-
seeable future they will continue to be faced by those governments
they now strive to undermine, shouLl, in the Ambassador's opinion,
"be thrown out against the Communist world in every conceivable
variation, with unremitting reiteration and persistence, and with all
possible factual support."
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FAR EAST
2. Soviet tactical units reportedly moving towards Korean front:
Soviet infantry and artillery units moved
south of the Chongchon river in northwest-
ern Korea in early May,
Allegedly the artillery units are destined for front line service.
An expansion of facilities and an increase
In personnel, particularly armored specialists, began in early M7
at North Korean General Headquarters,
At the same time, beginning 20 May, round-
tne-ciock conferences have been scheduled at combined Chinese-
Korean Headquarters.
Comment: The presence of Soviet air and
antiaircraft artillery units and advisory personnel in Korea has been
previously accepted, but the existence of other Soviet ground combat
units has not been confirmed. Since commitment of Soviet ground
units at the front would increase the danger that Soviet involvement
could be proved, such a move seems unlikely.
3. Thailand threatens to change sides in case of Chinese aggression:
The government-controlled paper in Bangkok
on 11 June commented at length on Thai
fears of a Chinese Communist invasion
through Burma. While stating that Thai-
land would fight aggression, the article included a thinly-veiled
threat of quick capitulation if the United States did not soon send more
arms.
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The American Embassy in Bangkok
comments that this newspaper is frequently used to express unof-
ficially the government's views, and that the article in question
lends credence to increasing reports that Thai leaders feel insecure
in the absence of an American guarantee to defend their country.
The embassy adds that they may some day use this reasoning to
justify "changing sides in the cold war."
Comment: There have been other recent
indications that the Thai Government is questioning the wisdom of its
extremely pro-Western policies and is preparing to adapt itself ulti-
mately to possible Chinese domination of the Far East.
4. Opportunistic Socialist cliquel directing Burmese foreign relations:
the Defense, Home, and Information
Ministers and the Secretary General of
the government party had formed a com-
mittee "to assist and advise the Foreign Minister in the discharge
of heavy duties."
Comment: This information is further
proof of the increasing concentration of power in the hands of a small
left-wing Socialist clique headed by the ruthless Defense Minister,
Ba Swe. While these leaders have recently taken a strong public
stand against local Communists, they have a record of political
flexibility and have, in general, been outspokenly critical of the West.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iranian Chief of Staff warns of possible Tudeh coup d'etat:
The Iranian Army Chief of Staff on 6 dune
warned his staff of the possibility of a
Tudeh coup d'etat. He stated that Tudeh
cells, which include senior officers, exist
throughout the army,but he said action against them was too dangerous.
Comment:
There is no evidence, however, of any organization capable of carrying
out a successful coup. There are no senior officers prominent among
the suspects, the majority of whom are enlisted personnel or junior
officers, often conscripts.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Increased work quotas in Hungary apparently due to Soviet pressure:
Higher production quotas for workers were
introduced in Hungary early this month after
a six weeks study had demonstrated laxness
and disorganization in impnrtant plants.
Comment: The higher quotas apparently
result from direct Soviet intervention to speed up Hungarian production
for the USSR. Sharp Soviet-inspired criticism has recently struck
the Hungarian bauxite, locomotive and shipbuilding industries, and
apparently has led to an investigation of accounting methods to discover
concealment of underproduction.
The chief of the Hungarian National Economic
Planning Office went to Moscow in February and returned in March with
a demand for a 25 percent rise in industrial production and a 5.2 per-
cent reduction in costs.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Director of French police says Communist Party seriously weakened:
The director of the French National Police
believes that the French Communist Party
is now disorganized and demoralized, and
that it will have difficulty recruiting.
The main Communist threat for the future,
he fears, lies in the possibility that Benoit Frachon, Secretary General
of the Communist-led General Labor Confederation, will be given free
rein to concentrate on labor's economic demands.
Comment: Despite Frachon's past success
In staging effective strikes on economic issues, as in the Paris trans-
port workers' walkout of March 1951, he has, until now, been genezally
overruled by top party leaders who have insisted on political strikes.
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