CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/02/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050116
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: February 12, 1953

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Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
L
2. Indonesian Foreign Minister claims to have blocked rubber
shipment to Communist China (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. American position in Saudi Arabia deteriorating (page 4).
4, British Ambassador urges early Anglo-Egyptian defense
negotiations (page 5).
5. Egyptian Foreign Minister expresses interest in Israeli
settlement (page 5).
6. King's long absence threatens Libyan unity (page 6).
7. Turkish Foreign Minister favors base agreement with United
States (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East Berlin authorities reportedly fear fuel shortage will
cause "political difficulties" (page 7).
9. British officials plead for renewed efforts toward current
NATO objectives (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Uruguay may ask United States support against Argentina (page 8).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Indonesian Foreign Minister claims to have blocked rubber shipment
to Communist China.
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The Indonesian Foreign Minister asserted 3.3(h)(2)
that he has been successful in preventing
the shipment of Indonesian rubber to Com-
munist China. He said the government
could take over the 3,000 tons of rubber which shippers had bought
In anticipation of an agreement with China and would make reimburse-
ments for arrangements made to transport the rubber on a Polish vessel.
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Comment: The plan to ship rubber from
Indonesia to Communist China may have failed as a result of a dis-
agreement over terms of trade rather than any sincere reluctance
to circumvent the UN-sponsored embargo on rubber to China. Indo-
nesian Government officials undoubtedly will continue to press for
rubber sales to China.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. American position in Saudi Arabia deteriorating:
The Saudi Arabian Government has become 3.3(h)(2)
critical of what it regards as an "ungenerous,
almost unfriendly" attitude of the United
States. In recent conversations with the
American Ambassador, Crown Prince Saud
and other top officials have maintained that
the United States has placed their country
in an "exposed position" through the sign-
ing of the Dhahran airfield agreement. They feel that now the United
States has little interest in living up to the military assistance aspects
of the agreement.
Although the immediate complaint is against
the American insistence that the Saudi Arabian Government pay the
costs of military trainees in the United States, Ambassador Hare be-
lieves that this is merely the focal point for general dissatisfaction
with the United States.
Comment: American relations with Saudi
Arabia have in the past been generally good. Just recently, however,
Saudi officials indicated a belief that, because of American suggestions
that the Buraimi dispute be submitted to arbitration, the United States
had "joined the British." American diplomatic reports emphasize that
Saudi Arabia is also irritated over recent American support of Israel
in the United Nations and the small amount of assistance given Saudi
Arabia compared to that given Israel.
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4. British Ambassador urges early Anglo-Egyptian defense negotiations:
The anticipated initialing of an Anglo-
Egyptian agreement on the Sudan on 12
February has prompted the British Ambas-
sador in Cairo to urge the early issuance
of a British statement on evacuation of the Suez Canal zone and the
immediate start of negotiations on the future of the Suez base and the
proposed Middle East Defense Organization,
The British Embassy plans to urge the
Foreign Office to consider releasing the remaining 45 jets of the
Egyptian order as soon as the defense talks begin. In the Embassy's
view the ability to furnish arms and economic aid represents the
only Anglo-American bargaining point with the Egyptians.
Comment: Egyptian officials have stated
repeatedly that they will not consider joining MEDO until the British
have evacuated the Suez Canal zone, which according to present British
plans would take approximately 18 months.
5. Egyptian Foreign Minister expresses interest in Israeli settlement:
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Egyptian Foreign Minister Fawzi has asked 3.3(h)(2)
Dr. Ralph Bunche to inform Israeli Foreign
Minister Sharett of Egypt's willingness to
consider an eventual settlement with Israel,
according to Ambassador Caffery. Such an agreement, Fawzi stated,
should involve the resettlement of Arab refugees as well as some ad-
justment of the frontier between Egypt and Israel.
Caffery also reports that Sharett, following
consultations with Tel Aviv officials, informed Bunche that Israel warmly
welcomed the Egyptian approach.
Comment: This is the clearest indication
to date that Egypt may be seriously contemplating an eventual settlement
with Israel.
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Fawzi has previously talked in a similar
vein to Ambassador Caffery. There is doubt, however, of how far
his views represent those of General Nagib who is reported to have
avoided any mention of the Palestine problem in his discussions with
Bunche.
6. King's long absence threatens Libyan unity:
American Minister Villard in Tripoli
believes that the long absence of King
Idris from Libya is a matter of serious
political concern. Idris has recently
indicated that he will not return from Egypt before mid-March.
Villard considers that the King's extended
absence at this critical period and his apparent preference for Egypt
may result in a voluntary or forced abdication, which might lead to
a breakup of united Libya.
Comment: There is other evidence of
increased Libyan dissatisfaction over Idris' absence since early
December, particularly his failure to return for the first anniversary
of Libyan independence on 24 December.
The King's absence removes an important
symbol of unity and possible leadership at a time when Libyan federa-
tion is experiencing difficulties. Since there is no generally acceptable
heir, Idris' abdication would further undermine the unity of the three
Libyan provinces.
7, Turkish Foreign Minister favors base agreement with United States:
Turkish Foreign Minister Koprulu believes
that a secret American-Turkish agreement
permitting the United States to use Turkish
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bases for defense preparations is the logical consequence of
Turkey's membership in NATO. During a conversation on 7
February with Ambassador McGhee, Koprulu said that such
an arrangement would be advantageous to Turkey. He thought
it would be possible to draw up an agreement which would not
have to be submitted to the Turkish National Assembly.
Comment: Since Turkey's entrance
into NATO, it has shown a willingness to participate actively
in Western defense plans, even at the risk of Soviet protests.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East Berlin authorities reportedly fear fuel shortage will cause
"political difficulties":
The effect of the East German coal
shortage on the fuel supply of the
Soviet sector of Berlin has necessi-
tated emergency action,
Berlin government representatives
have been sent to the coal mines by the Berlin Socialist Unity
Party to "speed up" coal shipments to the city and the State
Administration will be requested to supply the promised daily
ration of fuel.
The party secretariat believes that
continued shortages would cause unrest among the population
and that "considerable political difficulties" would develop if
Western propaganda organs exploit the shortage.
Comment: The increasing requirements
of the rearmament program have aggravated the fuel shortage in
East Germany. The burden of the coal shortage will probably be
shifted to consumers outside Berlin so that the shortage will not
be apparent to Western observers.
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9. British officials plead for renewed efforts toward current NATO
objectives:
British NATO representative Eric Roll has 3.3(h)(2)
made a strong plea for genuine efforts to
improve NATO members' 1953 defense pro-
grams. He stressed the bad effects which
a poor 1952 Annual Review report would
have on the American aid program.
Another British NATO representative
recently stated that, since the introduction of new type weapons will
not permit the reduction of conventional NATO forces until after 1956,
the 1953 Annual Review can be undertaken without waiting for a revision
of the current NATO military requirements.
Comment: Lord Ismay's paper last fall
commenting on the desirability of smaller forces equipped with new
type weapons and Prime Minister Churchill's loosely interpreted
statements that the threat of war has receded have led some NATO
members to believe that Britain favored a reduction in the 1953 NATO
build-up.
Churchill's statement on 9 February that
Western rearmament is the principal deterrent to Soviet aggression
and these statements by British NATO officials probably reflect the
British Government's desire to reaffirm in the appropriate quarters
its support for current NATO objectives.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Uruguay may ask United States support against Argentina:
The Uruguayan Ambassador to the United 3.3(h)(2)
States has been instructed to seek an inter-
view with Secretary Dulles shortly, apparently
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to gauge the extent to which Uruguay could count on United States
backing it if took countermeasures against Argentine economic
pressures. Uruguay is considering an appeal to the Organization
of American States, withdrawal of its ambassador from Buenos
Aires, and complete suspension of diplomatic relations.
The Uruguayan Government apparently
feels compelled by domestic public opinion to take some action,
but fears that any negotiated settlement would subsequently be dis-
regarded by Argentina.
Comment: Uruguayan-Argentine rela-
tions have been strained since Uruguay expelled two Argentine
labor attaches last September. Uruguay has been consistently
unwilling to conciliate the Argentines by restricting the activities
of Argentine emigres or controlling the anti-Peron press in
Montevideo.
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