CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050130
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 7, 1953

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7 March 1953
Copy No. 5j 3.5(c)
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. CK
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NEXT FiEVIEW DA E. -
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DATE: REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on reorganization of Soviet party and state apparatus (page 3).
2., Burmese UN delegate hints Peiping pressure concerning Chinese
Nationalists (page 4).
FAR EAST
3. No early change in Sino-Soviet relations expected (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4, Pakistani Army commander threatens war with India over canal waters
dispute (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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5. Iraqi Defense Minister proposes Middle East defense pact without
Egypt (page 6).
6. Comment on Mossadeq's strengthened position (page 6).
7. Jordan may abrogate its Mount Scopus agreements with Israel (page 7).
8. Egypt sets conditions for dropping threat of West German boycott (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Tito predicts weakened Soviet regime and sees possibility of Satellite
defection (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
French Communists reportedly preparing to purge their top labor
leader (page 9)0
French Premier to seek funds for Indochina on US visit (page 9),
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Danes accept NATO "guidance" in examination of MIG-15 (page 11).
LATIN AMERICA
14, American copper companies face new difficulties in Chile (page 11).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on reorganization of Soviet party and state apparatus:
Moscow Radio announced on 6 March
a thorough shake-up in Communist party and government positions.
The new appointments were made by joint decision of the Plenum
of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, the USSR
Council of Ministers, and the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet.
The Presidium of the Communist Party, recently elected at the
19th Party Congress, was reduced from 25 to 10 members with
G. M. Malenkov's name leading the list.
Malenkov was named chairman of the
Council of Ministers, with Molotov, Beria, Kaganovich and
Bulganin named as deputy chairmen. Molotov, Beria and Bulganin
also reassume their wartime ministerial positions.
The radio also announced that Voroshilov
has replaced Shvernik as Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme
Soviet and that the Supreme Soviet will convene on 17 March.
The reduction of the new party Presidium
to 10 members confirms that these few have long been the actual
leaders. Only two of them were not members of the old Politburo,
and they were deputy chairmen of the Council of Ministers elected
to the Presidium following the 19th Party Congress in October.
The reorganization establishes Malenkov
as Stalin's successor in the governmental hierarchy. The return of
the various members of the old Politburo to ministerial positions
which they previously held presents the world with a clear definition
of their responsibilities in a time of crisis. Thus the Soviet leaders
by presenting a united front behind Malenkov have apparently moved
to dispel fears throughout the Communist world and expectations in
the West that a crippling struggle for power would follow Stalin's
death.
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2. Burmese UN delegate hints Peiping pressure concerning Chinese
Nationalists:
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Burmese UN delegate Barrington intimated 3.3(h)(2)
on 3 March to a member of the Secretariat
that Communist China had brought some
pressure to bear on his government regard-
ing the continued presence in Burma of
Chinese Nationalist troops. 3.3(h)(2)
Comment: Pressure from Peiping may well
have been an important factor influencing Burma's decision to take the
Nationalist problem before the United Nations. In his recent announcement
of the decision, the Burmese Prime Minister promised that his government
would keep Communist China apprised of latest developments.
Soviet delegates in the United Nations may be
expected to take advantage of the propaganda opportunities provided by
this issue, regardless of whether the Burmese introduce it themselves.
FAR EAST
3. No early change in Sino-Soviet relations expected:
The American Consul General in Hong Kong
believes that current developments in Moscow
will probably have no immediate effect on
Sino-Soviet relations.
He suggests that in the event of a serious
political struggle within the Soviet Union, any contender for power
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would, in order to gain prestige, attempt to establish himself as
an authority on Asian communism in general and Communist China
in particular.
Comment: The Chinese Communist
leadership is expected to remain Talthful to the world Communist
movement. The new Soviet leadership, however, may be on trial
in Peiping's eyes for sometime to come.
There is no prospect that Mao Tse-tung
will attempt to succeed Stalin as world Communist leader. Mao has
been recognized, however, as second only to Stalin as an authority
on Asian communism, and he will probably seek a larger role in its
formulation and direction.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistani Army commander threatens war with India over canal waters
dispute:
According to the Indian Deputy High Com-
missioner in Lahore, General Ayub
Commander in Chief of the Pakistani Army,
approached him at a social function aid
threatenedwith war if that country withheld water from Pakistani
canals during the next planting season. A portion of the conversation
was overheard by an officer of the American Consulate General.
Both the Indian Deputy High Commissioner
and the American Consul General are alarmed over the incident because
General Ayub is considered a strong stabilizing force restraining Paki-
stani politicians from precipitate actions.
Comment: The Pakistani Government is
currently wrestling with critical Thternal problems and is not likely
to consider war with India over the canal waters dispute. General
Ayub's remarks may merely have been intended to give India the im-
pression that Pakistan views the canal waters problem as serious,
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iraqi Defense Minister proposes Middle East defense pact without Egypt:
Nun i Said, Iraqi elder statesman and Minister
of Defense, feels that if an Anglo-Egyptian
defense agreement is impossible, Britain
should approach Iraq in order to establish a
ense system based on the Arab Collective Security Pact.
Nun i told Sir Brian Robertson, Commander
in Chief of British forces in the Middle East, that if this also fails,
Iraq and Britain should arrange for common defense on a bilateral basis.
Comment: This is the first Arab suggestion
of a Middle East defense sigtelif without Egypt. It comes a few days
after Turkey advised the Iraqi Foreign Minister that MEDO need not
include Egypt. Any development of intra-Arab friction, abetted even
slightly by Turkey, places more obstacles in the way of Middle Eastern
defense.
6. Comment on Mossadeq's strengthened position:
Prime Minister Mossadeq's latest moves
Indicate the extent of his victory over the unorganized and indecisive
opposition. The conflict between the Prime Minister and his opponents
will probably now return to the Majlis, where Mossadeq's National
Movement Faction gives him a parliamentary advantage. Mossadeq
apparently has escaped the risk of submitting to a vote of confidence
by announcing his acceptance of a bill introduced by opposition deputies
reaffirming support of the Shah and the Prime Minister.
The replacement of the Iranian Air Force
Chief of Staff and other high-ranking officers, plus the arrest of other
officers, indicates that Mossadeq is still eliminating military elements
suspected of being friendly to the Shah.
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Mossadeq's campaign against the Court
is strengthened by the departure of Prince Abdor Reza for India
and the reported plans of Queen Soraya to leave Iran. The closing
of the two Tudeh and three anti-Mossadeq newspapers has for the
time being reduced this source of criticism.
The Prime Minister, although weakened
by the recent pro-Shah demonstrations, appears to control the situa-
tion once more. Further moves to reduce opposition elements cpn be
expected.
7. Jordan may abrogate its Mount Scopus agreements with Israel:
Jordan may soon attempt to abrogate its
Mount Scopus agreements guaranteeing
Israel access to the area, which lies in
the Jordanian-held sector of Jerusalem.
According to the senior Jordanian representative on the UN Mixed
Armistice Commission, his government will treat the Hadassah
Hospital and the Hebrew University on Mount Scopus as Jewish
private property and will deny that Israel has sovereign rights in
the sector.
Comment: Adoption of such a policy.
by Jordan would bring the recent tensions between the two countries
near to a breaking point.
The American Consul General in Jerusalem
believes that Jordan will base its policy on security grounds and on the
calculation that the Eisenhower administration is favorably disposed
toward the Arabs.
8. Egypt sets conditions for dropping threat of West German boycott:
Egypt has assured the West German Govern- 3.3(h)(2)
ment that the Arabs will not boycott German
goqds because of Bonn's ratification of the
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Israeli reparations treaty, provided certain declarations are made
prior to ratification.
Egypt has asked for a statement that
Germany is prepared to send experts to study the Aswan dam project,
to send a delegation to other Arab states to investigate their economic
needs, and to agree in principle to naming a neutral trustee to observe
goods delivered to Israel in order to assure their being non-strategic.
The German Embassy in Cairo considers
such a declaration a cheap price to pay for eliminating the threat of
a boycott and has urged Bonn to accept the Egyptian suggestion.
Comment: Although Egypt, along with the
other Arab League states, has threatened to boycott German goods
since the beginning of Israeli-German negotiations, it has done so
reluctantly because of the importance of its German trade. As some
other Arab states have already privately renounced any intention of
carrying out the boycott threat, it is unlikely that any concerted Arab
League boycott will be attempted.
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Tito predicts weakened Soviet regime and sees possibility of Satellite
defection:
Tito, who displayed undisguised pleasure
over Stalin's death, believes it will result
in weakening the USSR's hold over the Satel-
lites and may furnish an opportunity for
Albania to escape Soviet control. He cautions, however, that any suc-
cessful movement against the present Albanian regime must come from
within the country and that outside action would merely strengthen
Premier Hoxha's regime and the Albanian fear of Yugoslav or Greek
domination.
Comment: Recent actions indicate that
Yugoslavia would be quick to exploit any lessened Soviet control over
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its Satellite neighbors. Despite Tito's disapproval of outside action,
recent developments indicate the Yugoslays may have already planned
increased actions against the Hoxha regime.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French Communists reportedly preparing to purge their top labor leader:
Comment: Frachon is probably the ablest
labor leader in France. His Yis-rtisfaction with party insistence on
calling purely political strikes has long been known, and in January
he reportedly refused to push the Communist line on the Soviet doctors
affair in CGT publications.
The immediate effect of his ouster would be
a setback for the Communists in France, but Frachon would be in a
position to attract support from non-Communist as well as CGT unions
for forming a new labor organization which would be opposed to American
objectives.
11. French Premier to seek funds for Indochina on US visit:
According to Deputy French NATO repre-
sentative Baraduc, the only purpose of
French Premier Mayers prospective visit
to Washington is to seek additional American
financial aid in Indochina, particularly for the Vietnamese Army.
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12.
Baraduc states that France will accept SHAPE recommendations on
NATO commitments U it receives major additional help in Indochina.
Ambassador Draper's office infers that
France may threaten to endanger the whole NATO forces plan by
Insisting on reducing the German as well as the French build-up
unless a "burden-sharing" budget is adopted.
Comment: The 1953 French military
budget Includes $125,000,000 conditional on an increase in US aid
to $650,000,000. France had indicated earlier that the $125,000,000
was necessary for the success of the Indochina operation.
The concept of "burden-sharing on a more
equitable basis" is raised by European NATO members whenever they
feel that they are being asked to exceed their capabilities. Under a
"common budget" the United States would be expected to contribute
the greatest share to the total NATO effort.
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13. Danes accept NATO "guidance" in examination of MIG45:
Foreign Minister Kraft states that Danish 3.3(h)(2)
technicians will be "instructed and assisted"
by SHAPE experts in examining the MIG-15
which landed on Bornholm, but that non-
Danish personnel will not be permitted to go to the island.
The American Embassy in Copenhagen
considers that this arrangement will satisfy Western intelligence
requirements and offers the best solution for Denmark.
Kraft believes that the plane must be returned
to Poland, but not for some time. Denmark has already refused a Polish
request for its immediate return.
LATIN AMERICA
14. American copper companies face new difficulties in Chile:
their output.
The American-owned copper companies in
Chile have informed the Chilean Government
that they refuse to accept the official Price,
set arbitrarily at 24.5 cents per pound, for
The companies are, however, continuing temporarily to
deliver copper.
Comment: The US price of copper now
fluctuates around 30 cents per pound. The Chilean Government On 5
February authorized the Central Bank, which has controlled sales of
all Chilean copper since last May, to set the price paid to all copper
producers. According to the American Embassy in Santiago, this
legislation makes copper sales a permanent government monopoly, and
the practical effects of nationalization may be achieved by simple ad-
ministrative action.
The American-owned companies produce
over 90 percent of Chile's copper output. In 1952 Chile supplied 58
percent of all United States copper imports.
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