CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050133
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 13, 1953

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13 March 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCOMEN/ NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Thai Premier fears invasion and orders evacuation plans
prepared (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Iranian Majlis report on Shah's powers (page 4).
4. Israel plans to request special assistance from US (page 4).
5.
EASTERN EUROPE
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Adenauer presses for reply on Allied occupation costs (page 5).
7. French-German relations deteriorate during Coal-Steel Community
Ministers' meeting (page 6).
8. Key French Deputy would shelve EDC in favor of talks with Soviet
Union (page 6).
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1.
GENERAL
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
3.3(h)(2)
2. Thai Premier fears invasion and orders evacuation plans prepared
Premier Phibun on 27 February ordered 3.3(h)(2)
all government ministries to prepare evacua-
tion plans for use in the event of a Chinese
Communist or Viet Minh invasion,
inspired by his concern over the newly established Thai autonomous
Phibun's order was allegedly 3.3(h)(2)
state in Yunnan, a questionable report of a Peiping decision to take
"lingitiVP &ion" in Southeast Asia before the end of April, and
that French Union forces would be
unable to stop a Viet Minh drive into neighboring Laos.
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Comment Thai officials, especially Phibun,
were seriously alarmed by the numerous sensational documents indi-
cating early Communist aggression which were seized during the late
1952 police drive against Communists.
33(h)(2)
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Iranian Majlis report on Shah's powers:
The eight-man Majlis committee appointed
to examine the dispute between the Shah and Prime Minister Mossadeq
announced on 12 March that, according to its interpretation of the
constitution, the monarchy is a "divine trust" and the administration
of both civil and military affairs is therefore the responsibility of the
ministers and not the monarch.
If this report is adopted by the Majlis, as
is probable, Mossadeq will have reduced the Shah to the status of a
figurehead, which has long been one of his prime objectives.
4. Israel plans to request special assistance from US:
Foreign Minister Sharett has told Ambassador
Davis that Israel must request "one time"
special assistance after 30 June. He stated
that despite his government's reduction of
short-term debts, a shortage of approximately $20,000,000 was ex-
pected for the quarter ending on 30 J'une,
Ambassador Davis comments that Israeli
financial practices to date provide little assurance that the govern-
ment can avoid incurring further short-term debts.
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5.
Comment: Israel twice requested financial
assistance in 1952 to meet impending obligations, and there is little
reason to expect that the government in Tel Aviv will require only
"one time" aid.
EASTERN EUROPE
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Adenauer presses for reply on Allied occupation costs:
Chancellor Adenauer has warned that without 3.3(h)(2)
information on the amount of anticipated Allied
occupation costs, parliament will not act on
the Israeli restitution agreement, and that he
might ere ore have to postpone his trip to Washington until the resti-
tution agreement is finally ratified.
3.3(
)(2)
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Comment: Last May the Allies agreed
not to charge the West German invernment more than $120,000,000
monthly as occupation costs until November, when the contractual
finance convention was expected to become effective. Since then,
the Allies have been unable to agree on the level of occupation costs,
largely because of French insistence that German "defense" expendi-
tures be increased.
7. French-German relations deteriorate during Coal-Steel Community
Ministers' meeting:
The recent Strasbourg meeting of the Coal- 3.3(h)(2)
Steel Community was unproductive and French
Foreign Minister Bidault's behavior angered
both West German Chancellor Adenauer and
Italian Premier de Gasperi.
Ambassador Bruce believes that the bilateral
talks on the Saar which took place between Adenauer and Bidault on
the same occasion were inconclusive.
Comment: A high West German official
states that Bidault, contrary to E Fe earlier French stand, has refused
to enter into further talks on the Saar until after the conclusion of the
current French-Saar negotiations in Paris. German delegates to the
Coal-Steel Assembly believe that the French are backing out of the
Adenauer-Schuman understanding on the political aspects of the Saar
question.
8. Key French Deputy would shelve EDC in favor of talks with Soviet
Union:
French Socialist deputy Jules Moch, who is
responsible for reporting the EDC treaty out
of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs
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Committee, informed American representatives in Paris that the
committee will not consider his report until after the May municipal
elections and will then recommend against ratification. He believes
that since the EDC is unacceptable, the only realistic alternative is
"to talk to the Russians."
Comment: Moch effectively curbed Com-
munist influence in Franc-67;171Mb was Minister of the Interior in
1948. Nevertheless, he subordinates everything to his hatred of
German militarism and is the spokesman for a number of deputies
who think that the French Assembly can prevent any arming of the
Germans.
The Socialist Party's position on EDC,
however, will probably be influenced more by the ultimate British
stand than by Moch's attitude.
Renewed pressure for another round of
East-West talks, which was to be expected following Stalin's death,
is already evident in Radical Socialist leader Daladier's appeal for
talks with the Soviet Union.
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