CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064610
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 12, 1952

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INFORMATION
12 December 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO. PP.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS, 0,111(
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS;iS treff
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
AUTH: R TO-2
DATE:? liVeral REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. British infer Peiping "not wholly negative" on Indian truce plan
(page 3).
2. Iapanese view Soviet note as exploratory move (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. Soviet low frequency broadcast station established near Moscow
(page 4).
FAR EAST
4. New Chinese Communist Army reportedly moved to Hainan (page 5).
NEAR EAST --AFRICA
5. General Nagib reportedly to be president of Egypt (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Tito suggests high level Italian-Yugoslav talks (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. East German food shortages force withdrawals from stockpile
reserves (page 6).
8. Comment on the new political repression in East Germany (page 7).
9. Ex-German Chancellor advises against EDC ratification (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. British infer Peiping 'not wholly negative" on Indian truce plan
The British Foreign Office believes that
Peiping's response to the Indian truce plan
for Korea "does not begin to be as wholly
negative" as the USSR would have the UN
believe.
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The Foreign Office notes that Premier Chou
En-lai's statement of 28 November and the official People's Daily
editorial of that date, supporting the Soviet resolution, did not mention
the Indian plan. The British Charge in Peiping reports that as of
6 DecemberAhe Chinese press had offered no independent comment,
but merely reprinted Vyshinsky's 1 December speech and TASS comment
on the plan.
Comment: Peiping has not suggested,
either through the Indian Ambassador or other channels, that its
position on the Indian plan differs significantly from that of the USSR.
Soviet responsibility for presenting the Communist position in the
United Nations may be the reason for the absence of independent Chinese
comment.
2. Japanese view Soviet note as exploratory move:
Japanese officials believe that a recent Soviet 3.3(h)(2)
attempt to present an official note to the
Foreign Office regarding a minor shipwreck
case may have been intended to explore the
possibilities of de facto relations without establishing a legal status.
The American Embassy was informed that the Japanese Government
was determined to oppose such Soviet moves.
The note, which was accepted only as an
Informal memorandum, was presented at the first formal Soviet call
on the Foreign Office since the peace treaty became effective.
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Comment Since the end of the occupation,
members of the Soviet mission who remained in Japan have not had
official status. A similar desire to establish de facto relations may
explain the recent Chinese Communist offers to repatriate Japanese
nationals, to authorize fishing operations off the China coast, to
conclude a barter trade agreement, and to open Chinese ports to
Japanese ships.
Before establishing diplomatic relations with
the Communist nations, however, Japan insists on a revision of the
Sino-Soviet Pact, a cessation of aid to Japanese Communists, and the
repatriation of detained Japanese.
SOVIET UNION
3. Soviet low frequency broadcast station established near Moscow
Comment The establishment of this very
low frequency installation will probably increase the range of Soviet
communications and indicates that the Soviet navy is improving its
capabilities for long range submarine operations. With adequate
power, VLF signals can be received by submarines while submerged
at periscope depth.
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FAR EAST
4. New Chinese Communist Army reportedly moved to Hainan
Elements of the 51st Chinese Communist
Army have been moved from the mainland
to Hainan Island, according to a Chinese
Nationalist Ministry of National Defense
briefing report of 9 December. This army
was as reportedjust north of the Indochina border.
Comment Chinese Communist military
strength on Hainan has been steaTly increased since early 1952, when
only one division was based there. Almost all of the 43rd Army is
now based on Hainan, but this is the first indication that a second
army is being moved there.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5, General Nagib reportedly to be president of Egypt
The Egyptian army committee decided on 17 3.3(h)(2)
November that General Nagib would eventu11v
become the first president of a republic,
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Comment�, A Wafd spokesman said on 11 3.3(h)(2)
December that his party would support General Nagib as president
of a rppublic. The leader of the Moslem Brotherhood has stated
that his organization Also favors a republic. Army spokesmen have
intimated that a decision on the question may be announced soon.
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EASTERN EUROPE
6. Tito suggests high level Italian-Yugoslav talksz
During a reception for the departing Italian
Minister on 29 November, Marshal Tito
requested him to inform Premier de Gasperi
that Yugoslavia is most anxious to improve
relations. Tito indicated that a meeting between cabinet officials or
perhaps even chiefs of state might be more useful than negotiations
through diplomatic channels. He suggested that inability to reach an
agreement on Trieste should not be allowed to prejudice these talks.
Comment It is doubtful that Tito expects a
favorable Italian reaction. He is probably trying to deflect Western
pressure for a solution of the Trieste problem from Belgrade to Rome
by appearing conciliatory, while placing De Gasperi in an awkward
position,
WESTERN EUROPE
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7. East German food shortages force withdrawals from stockpile reserves
Premier Grotewohl in a 9 December statement
has admitted serious shortages in the East 3.3(h)(2)
German food supply. He promised release
of state reserves to alleviate immediate
shortages of butter, meat, and sugar,
American officials in Berlin believe that
this measure will not materially remedy the situation which has re-
sulted chiefly from adverse weather conditions, hoarding by the rural
population, and inadequate food deliveries from the Satellites.
Comment; The situation in East Germany is
aggravated by food shortages in the Satellite countries, All of them
are expected to suffer from meat and fat shortages by next spring.
This is likely to decrease labor productivity throughout the Orbit,
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8. Comment on the new political repression in East GermanT
The suspension of the Chairman of the Liberal
Democratic Party from his post as Minister of Trade and Supply is
apparently inaugurating a period of increased political repression in
East Germany. Premier Grotewohlt s alleged statement that anti-Com-
munist resistance will be crushed as the government moves toward
Soviet-style socialism coincides with the initiation of purge programs
in the Liberal Democratic Party and the East German Christian Demo-
cratic Union.
While economic difficulties appear to have
caused this search for scapegoats, the crack-down on the bourgeois
parties was probably the inevitable result of the initiation last summer
of a broad Sovietization program in East Germany. Although it is
doubtful that these parties have recently exercised a strongly moderating
influence on the regime, indications of their coming demise suggest
that the government no longer feels restrained from attacking such
centers of resistance as the churches. This attitude may also re-
flect a conviction in the government that German unification cannot
now be accomplished.
9. Ex-German Chancellor advises against EDC ratification,
Heinrich Bruening, German Chancellor in
1930-1932, has reportedly told a Bonn
political leader that, as a result of his per-
sonal acquaintance with officials of the
incoming American administration, he is convinced that a shift in
United States foreign policy can definitely be expected. Warning
against underestimating the change in American attitudes, Bruening
"decidedly advised against the ratification" of the Bonn and Paris
treaties,
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Comment. West German Social Democratic
leaders are now justifying their continued opposition to the EC
treaty by the assertion that the incoming Eisenhower administration
has already written off the European Army as "militarily ineffective,"
and favors the inclusion of a German national army in NATO. They
are already exploiting Bruening's statement as that of a respected
Christian Democrat who has spent many years in the United States,
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