CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064611
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 13, 1952

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13 December 1952
Copy No. 7
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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NO CHANGE 1N CLASS. Alt
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS MI
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
RUTH: HFI 70-
DATE:
REVIEWER.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP J1CRET
SECUPth INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
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ees Chiang's attitude as bar to close Sino-Japanese relations
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Indonesian Governmeritstability believed still threatened (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
French wish to be,; included in Iranian oil settlement (page 4).
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British plan to meet new incidents in disputed area of Arabian
peninsula (page 5).
� EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslays deny unilateral intentions in Albania (page 6),
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Outlook for French ratification of EDC has changed (page 6
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Chiang's attitude as 'bar to close Sino-Japanese relations:
that Chiang wishes to
prevent the growth of Japanese influence on Formosa, sees no pros-
pect of substantial improvement in relations with Japan until Chiang
changes his attitude.
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Comment: The Generalissimo is known to
fear a resurgence of Japanese influence in Formosa, which was governed
by the Japanese from 1895 to 1945 and which is oriented more toward
Japan than toward China.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Indonesian civ@rnment stability believed still threatened:
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la cabinet crisis is imminent
and that Indonesia continues to be threatened
with civil war. An emergency government re-
portedly is to be established with Vice President Hatta as Prime Minister.
Since there is "bad blood" between Hatta and
President Sukarno the former has asked Natsir, a former prime minister
and leader of the Masjumi, whether he is prepared to be "drafted for the
presidency."
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Comment: Political maneuvering has intensified
since the cabinet commenced measures against military officials respon-
sible for the 17 October "political action." Other reports do no suggest,
however, that the downfall of the cabinet is imminent. Tensions are ex-
pected to continue in Indonesia until after the elections tentatively scheduled
from April through July, but the threat of civil war is believed to have been
averted.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. French wish to be included in Iranian oil settlement:
4.
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The French Petroleum Director has advised the
American Embassy that France should be in-
cluded in any talks on the Iranian oil problem.
Declaring that France could use substantial
quantities of crude oil and aviation gasoline, the director added that the
government-controlled ,Compagnie Francaise des Petroles would wish
to participate in any British-American group formed to produce, refine
and market Iranian oiL
Comment: Although France has cooperated with
the Anglo-Iranian Oil (rnnncinv in preventing the movement of Iranian oil,
French companies have been interested
in oil purchases.
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5. British plan to meet new incidents in disputed area of Arabian peninsula:
In response to information that Saudi Arabia if
planning to move a small force into the dis-
puted Persian Gulf coastal region between
Qatar and Oman, the British War Office is
consid ring the temporary redeployment into the area of some armored
cars from Habanaiya or the Suez Canal zone.
Comment: The British Foreign Office has
informed the American Embassy in London of its growing belief that
force is the only answer to expanding Saudi Arabian activities in areas
regarded as being under British control.
The Embassy discounts the possibility of the
use of force, but feels the British attitude indicates the extent of Foreign
Office frustration over Arabian peninsula botihdary problems.
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EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslays deny unilateral intentions in Albania:
The Yugoslav Minister in Athens has assured 3.3(h)(2)
the Greek Government that Yugoslavia will
not disturb the status quo in Albania. He said
that in the event of an internal Albanian revolt
e Yugoslav Government will act only in conjunction with Albania's
"other neighbors." The Greek Foreign Minister feels that the Yttgoslav
statement should be accepted.
Comment: Yugoslavia's dependence on American
aid and its desire to concniaiiirsfactory defense arrangements with
Greece and other NATO countries virtually dictate such assurances re-
garding future intentions toward Albania. At the same time, however,
Yugoslavia is intent on strengthening its capability to overthrow the
Hoxha regime or dominate any revolutionary Albanian Government.
Despite the Greek profession of faith in Yugo-
slav intentions,Albania will continue to 'be a vital point of issue between
Greece, Italy and Yugoslavia.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Outlook for French ratification of EDC las changed:
The American Ernbassy in Paris reports that
National Assembly deputies opposed to EDC,
whose ranks have been growing, are now
coming to regard a German national army
un � er TO control as more acceptable. Their spokesmen believe
that an Assembly majority for such a solution can be found.
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� Foreign Ministry officials state that Chancellor
Adenauer,s postponement of final Bundestag action on the Bonn and Paris
treaties upsets the timing of French action. Although Assembly debate
could still take place by late February, it may be postponed until May,
particularly in view of the expected consideration in late March of a
draft treaty for a Eultopean Political Community, and the prospective
municipal elections in April.
Comment: Sentiment favoring a German national
army under NATO control rather than German forces in EDC has also
been voiced by German Social Democrats.
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