CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064612
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 14, 1952

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SECUR1 NFORMAT1ON
14 December 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 5 14
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
AUTH: HFj 70-2
DATE:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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REVIEWER:
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SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1, Finnish tanker to carry kerosene to Shanghai (page 3).
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2. North Korean Air Force may receive IL-28's (page 3).
3. President Rhee ready for new move against political opposition (page 4).
4.' Rumors of imminent Chinese Communist Party split reported (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Burma seeks increased military aid from Britain age 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Comment on coming haat elections (nave 6).
3.3(h)(2)
8. Moroccan nationalists claim preparation of underground organization
(page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Anti-Zionist purge believed imminent in Poland (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French may use Indochina question in NATO as lever to obtain more
US aid (page 8).
11. French may increase aid demands (page 9).
12. Dutch receipt of additional gold and dollar assets revealed (page 9).
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GENERAL
L Finnish tanker to carry kerosene to Shanghai: 3.3(h)(2)
The Finnish tanker Wiima, chartered to deliver
10,000 tons of Rumanian kerosene to Shanghai
at the end of December, is now loading at
Constantza, according to a Lloyd's shipping re-
port.
Comment: Most of China's oil imports have been
shipped by rail because of the Soviet bloc's tanker shortage. Since the
Korean war, the Orbit has unsuccessfully tried to charter several non-
Communist tankers for China service.
FAR EAST
2, North Korean Air Force may receive IL-28's:
3.3(h)(2)
Comment'. While no direct Korean connection
with the newly arrived IL-28's has yet been established, the coincidence
of timing and location suggests that some light bombers, possibly IL-28's,
will be made available to the North Korean Air Force.
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3. President Rhee ready for new move against political opposition:
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In commenting on President Rhee's inflammatory
anti-Assembly speeches of 2 and 9 December
and the 11 December statement by Home Minister
Chin that "organizations opposing the government
ould be eliminated," the American Embassy in Pusan states that many
Koreans feel that the "timing, tone and content" of these provocative
announcements may signal the beginning of the anticipated campaign
against Rhee's political opposition, particularly in the National Assembly.
The Embassy adds that Rhee's move appears to be
carefully timed to follow the Eisenhower visit to Korea and the 'UN dis-
cussions on the Korean conflict.
Comment: There have been increasing indications
in recent weeks that Rhee is preparing for another showddwn with his
opponents in the National Assembly. Having won partial. victory in his
struggle for power last summer, Rhee may now attempt to have the A4-
sembly dissolved.
4. Rumors of imminent Chinese Communist Party split reported:
3.3(h)(2)
there will be3.3(h)(2)
a split in the Chinese Communist Part ''wi �
the ear."
/re-
ports "much disagreement" among Communist
Party elements over Premier Chou En-lai's actions and the continuation
of the Korean war.
the moment may sow,
be opportune for a Chinese Nationalist operation against the mainland.
He asserts that mainland guerrillas "are ready to strike" and that anti-
Communist forces are soon to publish a manifesto.
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Comment: Available information does not support
these rumors. All of the alleged heads of party factions have publicly
adopted a Stalinist position. Although differing views are reported at the
lower levels of the party, regarding the Korean war and the Sino-Soviet
alliance and other issues, there is no evidence of private disagreements
among party leaders.
The mainland guerrillas have been reduced to
fewer than 50,000; they pose no threat to Communist authority over the
mainland and are incapable of holding any important area. Anti-Com-
munist forces in Hong Kong have issued many manifestos in the past
three years with no discernible effect on the Communist position.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Burma seeks increased military aid from Britain:
3.3(h)(2)
According to the British Foreign Office, Burma's
commander in chief, General Ne Win, recently
produced a five-year plan calling for a sub-
stantial increase in the size of the British
Services Mission in Rangoon and the provision of additional training
facilities for an expanded Burmese army.
The British Government is gratified by this
evidence of a reversal of Ne Win's attitude toward the mission, and is
now concerned with finding enough competent officers to implement the
plan.
Comment: Ne Win has often in the past indi-
cated a desire to be rid of the British Services Mission. This evidence
of a radically altered view reflects the growing awareness byBurmese
authorities of their dependence on Western support. It also indicates
that their efforts to develop satisfactory alternative sources to Britain
for military assistance have probably been unsuccessful..
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Comment on coming Iraqi elections:
The Iraqi Acting Foreign Minister clearly stated
in a recent broadcast the readiness of his government to hold the promised
direct elections by 27 February 1953,- as required by law. This state-
ment invalidates previous intimations that recently appointed Prime
Minister Mahmoud would postpone the elections indefinitely.
Holding the elections, however, does not neces-
sarily mean that General Mahmoud, who was brought to power by the Regent
and elder statesman Nun i Said, is prepared to relinquish control of the gov-
ernment. He may be confident that while the populace will derive some
satisfaction from direct elections, nevertheless, his control of the electoral
machinery will ensure his return to the premiership.
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8. Moroccan nationalists claim preparation of underground organization:3.3(h)(2)
the
nationalist parties have been directed to go under-
ground in order to combat French repressive
measures. 3.3(h)(2)
Anticipating the ban against nationalist activity,
the leaders had already taken precautions against house searches and
arrests and had set up a clandestine courier system. The leaders ex-
pect the nationalists in Morocco to be able to carry on a degree of po-
litical activity and to communicate with Tangier and representatives
abroad.
Comment: French controls will impede, but
are not likely to eliminate, their clandestine activity. Because of the
removal of many of the leaders,the possibility of successful Communist
infiltration of the nationalist movement is greatly increased.
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Anti-Zionist purge believed imminent in Poland:
Diplomatic circles in Warsaw believe a trial 3.3(h)(2)
of high Jewish officials in Poland is imminent.
The consensus is that Politburo member jakub
Berman and top-ranking officials in the Foreign
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Office may be involved. Testimony at the recent Prague trial concerning
Zionist intrigue in Czechoslovakia and Poland, together with recent prop-
aganda, suggests that Polish authorities are preparing such a trial.
There are also diplomatic rumors that a Gornulka
trial may be near at hand.
Comment: An anti-Zionist purge in Poland would
have especially far-reaching effects in the Foreign Office, most of whose
officials are Tewish. Iakub Berman, a high-ranking Sewish Communist
who has been very powerful in both party and government, did not receive
a cabinet post in the recent governmental reorganization.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French may use Indochina question in NATO as lever to obtain more
US aid.
The French deputy to the North Atlantic Council
has reportedly told the Italian deputy that France
expects to obtain more American aid if the 15
December session of the council supports a
French resolution seeking NATO assumption of obligations in Indochina.
The Italian deputy reportedly expressed fears
that passage of such a resolution would mean less aid for the other NATO
partners.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: This is a further indication of French
attempts to use the Indochina situation as a lever for obtaining more Amer-
ican aid. Ambassador Draper has reported that the French have also tried
to obtain American support for the Indochina resolution in return for French
support of a NATO resolution urging speedy EDC ratification.
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11. French may increase aid demands:
The American Embassy in Paris reports that 3.3(h)(2)
the French Government might not now be sat-
isfied with an increase in promised American
aid for the current fiscal year from $525,00Q000
to $650,000,000. At least some leading French officials. hope to "make
a better deal" with the incoming administration, and French represent-
atives in NATO bodies have clearly revealed their belief that much more
than $650,000,000 of American aid is possible.
Comment: In presenting the government's draft
military budget for 1953 EiTsfiThament on 1 December, Defense Minister
Pleven estimated expenditures at $4,180,000,00Q including items con-
ditional upon a new American commitment for the full $650,000,000 of
aid.
In late October, Premier Pinay personally told
Ambassador Dunn that the National Assembly's reluctance to ratify the
EDC treaty in the face of the existing Indochina burden could be overcome
if the US granted the full amount of requested aid.
12. Dutch receipt of additional gold and dollar assets revealed:
3.3(h)(2)
Unofficial sources reveal that the Dutch Govern-
ment has since July obtained about $90,000,000
in gold and dollar assets through transactions
with Indonesia. The American Ambassador in
The Hague concludes that the Netherlands can
no longer justify the $15,000,000 of American defense support aid which
it expects in the current fiscal year.
Dutch officials, on the other hand, state that
these assets arise largely from liquidation of investments, and reflect
no improvement in the Netherlands' basic capacity to earn dollars.
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The Ambassador warns that in view of the present
political pressure on The Hague government to cut taxes while increasing
certain non-military expenditures, an abrupt cutback now in American
defense support aid might well lead the Netherlands to curb its defense ex-
penditures and attempt to place the blame on the United States�
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