CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/01/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064886
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: January 8, 1953

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SEC INFORMATION
8 January 1953
Copy No,
58
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NPAte
140 CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECL ASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REJIEW DATE:
AUTH: R 70-
DATE:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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ITY INFORMATION
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REVIEWER:
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Status of
Egypt softens
agreement
Turkish
(page 4).
Chinese
(page 5).
Burmese
(page 5).
SUMMARY
GENERAL
Egyptian-Soviet barter agreement uncertain (page 3).
attitude toward West German-Israeli restitution
(page 3).
Foreign Minister favors Yugoslav membership in NATO
FAR EAST
Nationalists admittedly not ready for mainland invasion
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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seriously disturbed over Chinese Nationalists
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Labor protests may bring East German crack-down (page 6).
8. President of West German S enate opposes treaty ratification (page 7)L
9. Backing for Mayer in French Parliament uncertain (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Attempted coup strengthens leftists in Bolivia (page 8).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. Status of Egyptian-Soviet barter agreement uncertain:
Egypt has concluded a barter deal with the
Soviet Union providing for an exchange of
cotton valued at 3,000,000 pounds sterling
in return for industrial materials, chiefly
machinery, trade negotia-
tions were in progress with Poland, Czech-
oslovakia, and Communist China.
The Egyptian Government, however, has
denied that the barter deal with the Soviet Union has gone "beyond the
exploratory stages." It has also stated that it is not negotiating a cotton
agreement with Poland, Czechoslovakia, or China.
Comment: The Nagib regime is under in-
creasing pressure to seek cotton markets because Britain, Egypt's
major customer, is curtailing purchases. The Soviet Union and
Egypt have had barter arrangements in the past.
Aside from possible propaganda opportu-
nities, the USSR and Orbit nations may be particularly interested in
cotton purchases, since the Soviet crop in 1952 was poor and the Orbit
has had an inadequate supply for several years.
2. Egypt softens attitude toward West German-Israeli restitution agree-
ment:
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have stated that Egypt would
no longer attack the German-Israeli resti-
tution agreement if Bonn agreed to buy appreciable quantities of cotton,
to send an industrial mission to Cairo, and to have a "neutral" observer
supervise goods going to Israel.
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not to pass 3.3(h)(2)
this information to anyone in the Egyptian Government or in the Arab
League. He added that he would probably have trouble in the forth-
coming meeting of the League's Political Committee over this problem.
Comment: This is the first time that any
Arab state has made a conciliatory gesture on the Israeli restitution
agreement. Any such arrangement between Cairo and Bonn is likely
to be strongly criticized by the other Arab countries as well as by
Israel.
3. Turkish Foreign Minister favors Yugoslav membership in NATO:
Turkish Foreign Minister Koprulu believes 3.3(h)(2)
the time will shortly be ripe to attach Yugo-
slavia to NATO. He believes the Yugoslays
would accept membership in two or three
ountries would have no objection if Italy could
montns, an
be persuaded to approve.
If direct admission is impossible, he be-
lieves a Greek-Turkish-Yugoslav alliance with reciprocal guarantees
with NATO would be an alternative.
Comment: No other member has suggested
that Yugoslavia be admitted to NATO and Italy would be strongly opposed.
While the Yugoslav attitude toward firm military planning with Western
powers has changed markedly in the last two months, there have been
no indications that the Yugoslays would yet go so far as to become an
actual NATO member.
Koprulu's statement is in line with his desire
to subordinate any agreement with Greece and Yugoslavia to Turkey's
NATO commitments. The British Foreign Office has expressed a view
that guarantees of assisth.nce to Yugoslavia in case of attack can not be
given by NATO, or by any member or groups of members of NATO.
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FAB EAST
4. Chinese Nationalists admittedly not ready for mainland invasion:
Chinese Nationalist leaders realize that
n invasion of Communist China by their
ores would require "years" of prepara-
tion,
The merican mbassy comments that many Nationa is
leaders have recently expressed this thought
Comment: Nationalist opinion on this
question changed sharply during 1952. As late as last July, Chiang
Kai-shek told an American official that he believed an early invasion
of the mainland, with American support, to be feasible. In his 1953
New Year's statement, however, Chiang described the coming year
as one of preparation for action.
5. Burmese
SOUTHEAST ASIA
seriously disturbed over Chinese Nationalists:
Burmese stated
on 7 January that the problem resulting from
the presence of Chinese Nationalist troops
in Burma has "reached serious proportions."
He saiLd that additional Nationalist units have
�t�hThafland and that he was undecided whether to concentrate
Burmese forces. against the Communist insurgents or the Nationalists.
Comment: In recent weeks, Burmese officials
have been increasingly concerned over reports that the Chinese Nationalists
are receiving supplies and reinforcements from Thailand. Their concern
is aggravated by increasing Nationalist cooperation with the insurgent
Karens.
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6.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Labor protests may bring East German crack-down:
Recent investigations conducted by East
German authorities
have revealed a sharp increase in anti--
regime activities in the nationalized plants
o a er in. equalities of incentives granted various categories
of workers-are said to have led to general labor dissatisfaction, some
organized protests and strikes, illegal agitation, and even sabotage.
officials in Frankfurt believe that
the investigation may lead to the adoption of stern measures to improve
discipline in plants.
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Comment: Worker unrest in East Germany
is probably more widespread than is indicated by isolated reports of
strikes and agitations. Failure to pay the usual Christmas bonuses
reportedly resulted in much criticism of the government's labor policies.
A further increase in labor dissatisfaction would aggravate production
difficulties in an economy already troubled by shortages of skilled and
supervisory personnel;
8. President of West German Senate opposes treaty ratification:
Reinhold Maier, President of the West German
Senate, and his Baden-Wuerttemberg supporters
now oppose ratifying the Bonn and Paris treaties.
They urge instead that the government adopt a
forei policy acceptable to the opposition Social Democrats.
Maier's new
attitude is also calculated to promote his candidacy for the Chancellorship
in the event that a coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats if
formed after the forthcoming elections.
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Comment: Without the support of Maier, who
is also the Free Democrat chairman of the key Baden-Wuerttemberg sen-
atorial delegation, the treaties cannot be ratified. His new stand stems
largely from his belief that the treaties may not reach the Federal qenate
before the new elections, and that he has more to gain politically by op-
posing them now.
Should the treaties surmount within the next few
months current constitutional obstacles, however, Maier, whose party is a
member of the coalition, would almost certainly vote for their approval.
9. Backing for Mayer in French Parliament uncertain:
Although Radical Socialist leader R ene Mayer
has been authorized to form a cabinet, the
American Embassy in Paris doubts that there
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has been a real meeting of minds with the Gaullists and the Popular
Republicans, The Gaullists apparently believe that Mayer is willing
to surrender the supranational character of the EDC; the Popular
Republicans, however, are convinced that he intends to defend this
aspect of the treaty and they may insist that the new Foreign Minister
be from their ranks.
Comment: Lack of Socialist support forced
Mayer to effect an apparent reconciliation of Gaullist and Popular
Republican views on the EDC in order to obtain a larger vote than
Pinay. Disagreement between these two parties over Mayer's can-
didate for Foreign Minister, however, could still result in the Na-
tional Assembly's failure to approve his cabinet.
If Mayer is confirmed as premier, he may
have the advantage of alternative supporting majorities, one including
the Gaullists on domestic issues, and the other without that party but
including the Socialists on foreign policy.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Attempted coup strengthens leftists in Bolivia:
The United States Embassy in La Paz be-
lieves that the attempted revolt in Bolivia
on 6 january was precipitated by the de-
cision of President Paz to side with Juan
Lechin and the left wing of the governing National Revolutionary
Movement (MNR) in the army reorganization controversy.
The "premature and abortive" coup at-
tempted by right-wing military and civilian leaders of the MNR was
frustrated by prompt government action. The Lechin group may now
dominate the government.
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Comment: The right wing of the MNR had
planned to reopen the military academy and recruit a new army in
order to counterbalance the superior might of the armed laborers.
Lechin, however, reportedly threatened a revolt if Paz supported
this plan.
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